Ralliant Corp (RAL)

NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$66.49+1.29%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ralliant Corp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.35 → 3.38 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$570M–$590M	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	608.97M
EPS	—	0.854
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.25B–$2.3B	2.3B
EPS	—	2.867
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.46B
EPS	—	3.38

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete $100 million accelerated share repurchase in 2026-Q1	The company is buying back $100 million in shares, showing capital discipline.	Intact	ASR program is canceled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS at or above $2.61 in FY26	A primary condition in Ralliant Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.61.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.53	Diluted EPS: $0.51 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.61. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.51 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3fd41ccd-d0ba-416f-8a10-19be66060eeb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 20% in FY26	A primary condition in Ralliant Corp's published investment case. The stated target is ~20%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 19.5%	Operating margin: 14.48% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~20%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202614.476928 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3fd41ccd-d0ba-416f-8a10-19be66060eeb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full-year 2026 revenue at or above $2.215 billion	A primary condition in Ralliant Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.215 billion.	Intact	Full-year revenue falls below $2.185 billion	Revenue: $567.8M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.215 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026567,800,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3fd41ccd-d0ba-416f-8a10-19be66060eeb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance from $2.1-$2.2B to $2.25-$2.3B and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance from 19.5%-20.5% to 20.0%-21.0%. Revenue grew from $481.8M in 2025-Q1 to $567.8M in 2026-Q2, showing delivering growth consistent with guidance increases. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.38

$3.09 → $3.38 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.46B

$2.37B → $2.46B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.09	$2,366,421,110	12 / 12
2026-07-25	$3.09	$2,366,421,110	12 / 12
2026-07-26	$3.09	$2,366,421,110	12 / 12
2026-07-27	$3.09	$2,366,459,624	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$3.09	$2,366,421,110	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$3.09	$2,366,421,110	12 / 12
2026-07-30	$3.09	$2,366,421,110	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$3.19	$2,403,029,493	8 / 8
2026-08-01	$3.19	$2,403,029,493	8 / 8
2026-08-02	$3.25	$2,428,243,860	11 / 11
2026-08-03	$3.25	$2,428,246,439	8 / 8
2026-08-04	$3.25	$2,428,246,439	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$3.28	$2,436,243,860	11 / 11
2026-08-06	$3.25	$2,428,243,860	11 / 11
2026-08-07	$3.25	$2,428,246,439	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$3.25	$2,428,246,439	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$3.25	$2,428,246,439	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$3.28	$2,436,243,860	11 / 11
2026-08-12	$3.25	$2,428,246,439	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$3.28	$2,436,243,860	11 / 11
2026-08-14	$3.25	$2,428,246,439	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$3.25	$2,428,246,439	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$3.25	$2,428,246,439	8 / 8
2026-08-17	$3.25	$2,428,246,439	8 / 8
2026-08-18	$3.25	$2,428,246,439	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$3.25	$2,428,246,439	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-08-21	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-08-22	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-08-23	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-08-24	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-08-25	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-08-26	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-08-27	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-08-28	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-08-29	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-08-30	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-09-04	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-09-05	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-09-06	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-09-07	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-09-08	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-09-09	$3.31	$2,444,150,613	8 / 8
2026-09-10	$3.33	$2,447,468,795	8 / 8
2026-09-11	$3.33	$2,447,468,795	8 / 8
2026-09-12	$3.33	$2,447,468,795	8 / 8
2026-09-13	$3.33	$2,447,468,795	8 / 8
2026-09-14	$3.33	$2,447,468,795	8 / 8
2026-09-15	$3.33	$2,447,468,795	8 / 8
2026-09-16	$3.33	$2,447,468,795	8 / 8
2026-09-17	$3.33	$2,447,468,795	8 / 8
2026-09-18	$3.33	$2,447,468,795	8 / 8
2026-09-19	$3.33	$2,447,468,795	8 / 8
2026-09-20	$3.33	$2,447,468,795	8 / 8
2026-09-21	$3.33	$2,447,468,795	8 / 8
2026-09-22	$3.33	$2,447,468,795	8 / 8
2026-09-23	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	8 / 8
2026-09-24	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$3.35	$2,447,468,795	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$3.36	$2,450,429,403	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$3.38	$2,457,702,131	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$3.38	$2,457,702,131	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$3.38	$2,457,702,131	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$3.38	$2,457,702,131	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$3.38	$2,457,702,131	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$3.38	$2,456,162,043	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$3.38	$2,456,162,043	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$3.38	$2,456,126,569	7 / 8
2026-10-23	$3.38	$2,456,126,569	7 / 8
2026-10-24	$3.38	$2,456,126,569	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	5	1
2026-06-01	7	5	1
2026-07-01	6	5	1
2026-08-01	6	4	1
2026-09-01	6	4	1
2026-10-01	7	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Seaport GlobalOct 14

$88.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$48.40$96.80

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete $100 million accelerated share repurchase in 2026-Q1Direct metric needs a verified mapping
EPS at or above $2.61 in FY26Diluted EPS: $0.51 per share
Operating margin near 20% in FY26Operating margin: 14.48%
Full-year 2026 revenue at or above $2.215 billionRevenue: $567.8M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ralliant Corp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-and-efficiency thesis, with capital returns as an added feature rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: management has raised 2026 guidance and is on track with its savings program, but recent performance has lagged peers.

What's priced into Ralliant Corp

The valuation evidence describes RAL as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, meaning the evidence does not point to unusually fragile market expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, execution centers on delivering the raised 2026 revenue and margin guidance and the expected savings, with reported margin and cash-flow improvements supporting progress so far. Recent results include both an earnings miss and a later earnings beat, while performance remains below the industry cohort; the stated near-term miss risk is low, but elevated overall risk keeps consistency important.

What Ralliant Corp hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on whether management sustains growth, meets its savings goals, and preserves credibility after raising guidance. A guidance reversal would damage confidence, while Fed rate cuts or continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could provide a more supportive backdrop.