Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$24.43-1.13%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Old Second Bancorp, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.40 → 2.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	97.62M
EPS	—	0.585
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	386.13M
EPS	—	2.178
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	395.36M
EPS	—	2.393

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share maintained at $0.07	It keeps dividends at $0.07 per share.	Intact	Dividend falls below $0.06 per share next quarter	Dividend per share: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.07 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20260.07 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8a6ea475-f02b-4af0-835d-31613b3f2403. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income at or above $34 million next quarter	Old Second Bancorp grows operating income to $34 million next quarter.	Intact	Operating income falls below $29 million next quarter	Operating income: $37.838M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=34 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202637,838,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share repurchase of at least $61 million in next 12 months	Old Second Bancorp grows operating income to $34 million next quarter.	Intact	Buyback program canceled or reduced below $40 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.39

$2.30 → $2.39 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.40B

Unavailable → $0.40B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.30	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-25	$2.31	$348,354,800	6 / 5
2026-07-26	$2.31	$348,354,800	6 / 5
2026-07-27	$2.31	$347,245,670	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$2.31	$347,245,670	6 / 6
2026-07-29	$2.31	$347,245,670	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.36	$340,512,330	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$2.36	$340,512,330	6 / 6
2026-08-01	$2.36	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$2.39	$341,629,000	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.39	$341,629,000	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-05	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-06	$2.39	$341,629,000	6 / 6
2026-08-07	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$2.39	$341,629,000	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$2.39	$341,629,000	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-14	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$2.39	$395,878,200	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$2.40	$397,138,200	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$2.40	$397,138,200	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$2.40	$397,138,200	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$2.40	$397,138,200	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$2.40	$397,138,200	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$2.40	$397,138,200	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$2.40	$397,138,200	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$2.40	$397,138,200	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$2.40	$397,138,200	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$2.40	$398,440,000	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$2.42	$398,440,000	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$2.42	$398,440,000	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$2.42	$398,440,000	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$2.42	$398,440,000	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$2.44	$400,061,500	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$2.42	$397,241,500	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$2.39	$395,361,500	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	1
2026-06-01	4	1
2026-07-01	5	1
2026-08-01	5	1
2026-09-01	5	1
2026-10-01	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 6 · prior Jul 7

$26.00 → $30.00+15.4%

$0$16.50$33.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share maintained at $0.07Dividend per share: $0.07 per share
Operating income at or above $34 million next quarterOperating income: $37.838M
Share repurchase of at least $61 million in next 12 monthsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-9.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Old Second Bancorp, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

OSBC is a bank stock with a multi-year thesis centered on financial performance, margins, and capital returns. The thesis is currently intact, though recent momentum weakened after an earnings miss and the evidence confidence is medium.

What's priced into Old Second Bancorp, Inc.

Valuation is tagged as stretched, and the model places OSBC at a 1.16 premium to peers, with expectations generally aligned with the evidence. Fragility is low, so the snapshot does not point to a concentrated vulnerability in what is priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show mixed execution: the net interest margin improved, but the efficiency ratio worsened and the latest quarter missed earnings. Credit indicators improved, including a lower share of criticized loans, though management said losses remained higher than desired and reported a credit-loss provision. Repurchases continued, while reducing capital, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What Old Second Bancorp, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on whether OSBC can sustain margin performance, improve operating efficiency, and keep credit quality moving in the right direction. Near term, rate cuts could weigh on the Financials sector, while earnings and guidance from HDB, IBN, and USB may signal whether sector momentum strengthens or fades.