ORAGENICS INC (OGEN)

AMEXHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$0.42+2.90%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ORAGENICS INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-72
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.69
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.42

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Progress Phase IIa clinical trial of ONP-002	Oragenics advances its lead drug ONP-002 with Phase IIa trials approved.	Improving	significant delays or failure in Phase IIa trial progress	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain operating losses near -$2.2M net income and cash flow	Management aims to control operating losses near -$2.2M net income and cash flow in 2026-Q1.	Broken	net income or cash from operations falls below -$2.2M per quarter persistently	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Effective CFO leadership to improve financial management	The company appointed John Spencer as CFO to strengthen financial leadership.	Intact	no measurable improvement in financial management or cost control	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2. John Spencer was promoted to CFO with an employment agreement effective July 1, 2026. This is a recent leadership change with no direct financial impact reported yet. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
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2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Monthly analyst history is unavailable.

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Progress Phase IIa clinical trial of ONP-002Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain operating losses near -$2.2M net income and cash flowPublished status: Broken
Effective CFO leadership to improve financial managementDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-69.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ORAGENICS INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, loss-making clinical-development company, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with ONP-002 milestones progressing, but confidence remains low.

What's priced into ORAGENICS INC

The valuation model indicates a durable premium to peers, but its confidence is low. The evidence does not specify what clinical or commercial success the market already assumes, so the expectations gap is unclear.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, OGEN remains loss-making, and the next report carries elevated miss risk for a small company in a high-miss-rate industry. Over the multi-year view, management reports ONP-002 Phase IIa work is on track, with an FDA submission for Phase IIb targeted for Q4 2026; the CardioDialysis license plan has no delivery metrics yet. The August notice of a possible listing-rule issue adds a material concern.

What ORAGENICS INC hinges on

The thesis depends on OGEN meeting clinical milestones and providing evidence that the new TBI platform can advance beyond an early-stage license plan. A guidance cut or continued weakening in jobs data could weigh on the near-term business backdrop, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.