Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-25 · fmp
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15
$217.23-1.84%
Close 2026-10-15 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
15.70 → 15.77 EPS · FY ending Jan 25, 2028 · 32 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 33 to 32; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflow4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Center revenue grows to at least $75 billion in 2026-Q2 | Nvidia leads AI and data center growth with 92% revenue rise to $75.2B in 2026-Q2. | Intact | Data Center revenue falls below $39 billion in 2026-Q2 | Data Center revenue: $89.023B FY2027-Q2; reported segment. Published target: >= $75 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 26, 202689,023,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceData Center · reported segment FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 26, 2026 Source: stock_segment_revenue. Reference: 2027-Q2. Source status: vendor observation. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-25 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a durable compounder with a focus on AI and data center capabilities. The current thesis state shows strong revenue growth and a commitment to shareholder returns, despite recent declines in company momentum.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below peers. There is a low level of fragility in execution, suggesting that the current valuation reflects justified concerns rather than extreme pessimism.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, driven by management's focus on expanding AI and data center capabilities. Recent financial performance has been robust, although there is a low probability of missing guidance, which could impact sentiment.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including potential Fed rate cuts that could benefit tech stocks, as well as the performance of sector bellwethers like TSM and AVGO. Additionally, guidance from management in upcoming calls will be crucial, especially if they lower expectations.
Overall, NVIDIA's position in the market is supported by strong fundamentals and a favorable sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Data Center revenue grew from $26.3 billion in 2025-Q2 to $89.0 billion in 2026-Q3, a 117% increase year-over-year. Management consistently emphasized AI infrastructure expansion and Data Center growth, and the financials show delivering strong revenue growth aligned with this priority.
Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026Gaming revenue grows to at least $6.4 billion in 2026-Q2 | A supporting condition in NVIDIA Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.4 billion. | Improving | Gaming revenue falls below $5 billion in 2026-Q2 | Gaming unavailable in the latest segment data Last available Gaming revenue: $3.727B in FY2026-Q4. Latest source period is FY2027-Q2; a broader segment cannot substitute for this measure. Source published Feb 25, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceGaming · reported segment FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jan 25, 2026 Source: stock_segment_revenue. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: vendor observation. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain gross margin near 75% in 2026-Q3 | A supporting condition in NVIDIA Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is ~74.9%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 70% in 2026-Q3 | Gross margin: 74.98% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~74.9%. Target period ends 2026-07-31; this observation covers 2027-Q2. Source published Aug 26, 202674.975317 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1f4d6ed3-f41a-49c4-ba8b-0b7e8161bc6b. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Return at least $20 billion to shareholders in 2026-Q2 | A supporting condition in NVIDIA Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $20 billion. | Intact | Capital returned falls below $10 billion in 2026-Q2 | Cash returned to shareholders: approximately $26B FY2027-Q2; reported cash return. Published target: >= $20 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 26, 2026Approximately 26,000,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · reported cash return FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 26, 2026 Source: stock_earnings_document. Reference: 3ef242a4-4351-4170-99c1-b369ab1be26e. Source status: source quote verified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. NVIDIA returned $15.4 billion in first half of 2025, $24.3 billion in first half of 2026, and approximately $26.0 billion in Q3 2026 alone. The quarterly dividend increased from $0.01 to $0.25 per share in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently emphasized capital return, and the financials show delivering substantial shareholder returns. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.77 → $15.77 · observed estimates
$563.21B → $694.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.77 | $563,213,028,153 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.77 | $563,213,028,153 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-07 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 30 / 40 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 30 / 40 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.76 | $564,607,382,867 | 30 / 40 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.79 | $569,550,492,974 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.80 | $569,986,401,424 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.82 | $570,718,374,758 | 31 / 41 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.84 | $571,230,956,424 | 31 / 41 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.80 | $570,265,933,196 | 31 / 41 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.81 | $570,333,016,529 | 31 / 41 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.81 | $570,333,016,529 | 31 / 41 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.81 | $570,333,016,529 | 31 / 41 |
| 2026-08-29 | $15.33 | $671,826,750,145 | 31 / 41 |
| 2026-08-30 | $15.52 | $678,900,857,911 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-08-31 | $15.52 | $681,176,855,418 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-01 | $15.52 | $680,707,426,876 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-02 | $15.59 | $682,880,679,314 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-03 | $15.59 | $682,880,679,314 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-04 | $15.59 | $684,133,317,946 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-05 | $15.64 | $685,851,843,370 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-06 | $15.64 | $685,851,844,965 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-07 | $15.64 | $685,851,844,965 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-08 | $15.70 | $687,155,353,439 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-09 | $15.70 | $687,155,338,221 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-10 | $15.70 | $687,155,338,221 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-11 | $15.70 | $687,086,849,250 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-09-12 | $15.70 | $687,086,849,250 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-09-13 | $15.70 | $687,086,849,250 | 33 / 42 |
| 2026-09-14 | $15.70 | $687,086,849,250 | 33 / 42 |
| 2026-09-15 | $15.70 | $687,354,277,951 | 33 / 42 |
| 2026-09-16 | $15.70 | $687,354,277,951 | 33 / 42 |
| 2026-09-17 | $15.70 | $687,354,277,951 | 33 / 42 |
| 2026-09-18 | $15.70 | $687,354,277,951 | 33 / 42 |
| 2026-09-19 | $15.70 | $687,354,277,951 | 33 / 42 |
| 2026-09-20 | $15.71 | $687,432,131,032 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-21 | $15.71 | $687,432,131,032 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-22 | $15.74 | $688,100,162,778 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-23 | $15.74 | $688,100,168,692 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-24 | $15.74 | $688,100,168,692 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-25 | $15.74 | $688,100,168,692 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-26 | $15.74 | $688,100,168,692 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-27 | $15.74 | $691,334,268,187 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-28 | $15.74 | $691,334,268,187 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-29 | $15.74 | $691,334,268,187 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-30 | $15.74 | $691,334,268,187 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-01 | $15.74 | $691,401,973,454 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-02 | $15.75 | $691,862,290,915 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-03 | $15.75 | $691,849,424,639 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-04 | $15.75 | $691,849,424,639 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-05 | $15.75 | $691,849,424,639 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-06 | $15.77 | $692,443,594,524 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-07 | $15.77 | $692,443,594,524 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-08 | $15.77 | $694,610,426,694 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-09 | $15.77 | $694,610,426,694 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-10 | $15.77 | $694,610,426,694 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-11 | $15.77 | $694,610,426,694 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-12 | $15.77 | $694,610,426,694 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-13 | $15.77 | $694,610,426,694 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-14 | $15.77 | $694,610,418,629 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-15 | $15.77 | $694,610,426,694 | 32 / 42 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 59 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.