Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc (NP)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$28.44-0.97%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.67 → 0.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	52.91M
EPS	—	0.147
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	46.46M
EPS	—	0.119
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	204.9M
EPS	—	0.554
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	241.99M
EPS	—	0.679

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete $100M share repurchase program	A supporting condition in Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Implement $100M share repurchase.	Intact	Repurchase program is cancelled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Profit margin near 60.5% in FY26	Profit margins should stay near 60.5%.	Intact	Profit margin falls below 55% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 27% in FY26	A primary condition in Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=27% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 20% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.68

$0.65 → $0.68 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.24B

$0.23B → $0.24B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.65	$230,894,270	13 / 10
2026-07-25	$0.66	$237,258,538	11 / 7
2026-07-26	$0.65	$230,894,270	13 / 10
2026-07-27	$0.66	$237,258,538	11 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.67	$237,186,820	13 / 10
2026-07-29	$0.67	$237,906,820	13 / 10
2026-07-30	$0.67	$237,906,820	13 / 10
2026-07-31	$0.67	$238,861,930	13 / 9
2026-08-01	$0.67	$237,876,720	11 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.67	$239,275,740	13 / 10
2026-08-03	$0.67	$239,114,310	11 / 7
2026-08-04	$0.67	$239,114,310	11 / 7
2026-08-05	$0.67	$239,114,310	11 / 7
2026-08-06	$0.67	$239,275,740	13 / 10
2026-08-07	$0.67	$239,114,310	11 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.67	$239,114,310	11 / 7
2026-08-09	$0.67	$239,114,310	11 / 7
2026-08-10	$0.67	$239,965,740	13 / 10
2026-08-12	$0.67	$239,965,740	13 / 10
2026-08-13	$0.67	$239,965,740	13 / 10
2026-08-14	$0.67	$239,114,310	11 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.67	$239,114,310	11 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.67	$239,114,310	11 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.67	$239,114,310	11 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.67	$239,114,310	11 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.67	$239,114,310	11 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-20	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-21	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-22	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-23	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-24	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-25	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-26	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-27	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-28	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-29	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-09-30	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-10-01	$0.67	$239,741,583	11 / 7
2026-10-02	$0.67	$239,777,946	11 / 7
2026-10-03	$0.67	$239,777,946	11 / 7
2026-10-04	$0.67	$239,777,946	11 / 7
2026-10-05	$0.67	$239,777,946	11 / 7
2026-10-06	$0.67	$239,777,946	11 / 7
2026-10-07	$0.67	$239,777,946	11 / 7
2026-10-08	$0.67	$239,850,673	11 / 7
2026-10-09	$0.67	$240,741,583	11 / 7
2026-10-10	$0.67	$240,741,583	11 / 7
2026-10-11	$0.67	$240,741,583	11 / 7
2026-10-12	$0.67	$240,741,583	11 / 7
2026-10-13	$0.67	$238,459,764	11 / 7
2026-10-14	$0.67	$238,459,764	11 / 7
2026-10-15	$0.67	$238,459,764	11 / 7
2026-10-16	$0.67	$238,459,764	11 / 7
2026-10-17	$0.67	$238,459,764	11 / 7
2026-10-18	$0.67	$238,459,764	11 / 7
2026-10-19	$0.67	$238,459,764	11 / 7
2026-10-20	$0.67	$238,459,764	11 / 7
2026-10-21	$0.67	$240,689,946	11 / 5
2026-10-22	$0.68	$241,801,731	11 / 7
2026-10-23	$0.68	$241,801,731	11 / 7
2026-10-24	$0.68	$241,992,640	11 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	4
2026-06-01	9	4
2026-07-01	9	6
2026-08-01	9	6
2026-09-01	8	6
2026-10-01	8	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 22 · prior Aug 19

$36.00 → $35.00-2.8%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 21 · prior Oct 7

$31.00 → $33.00+6.5%

Wells FargoOct 12 · prior Jun 30

$35.00 → $34.00-2.9%

$0$19.80$39.60

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete $100M share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Profit margin near 60.5% in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows at least 27% in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-43.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NP is a growth-oriented financial business with recent strong results, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, though quality and momentum measures have fallen and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc

NP is expensive versus peers, with a reported peer premium of 5.29 and an expectations gap of 0.32. The valuation case relies partly on future optionality, or potential upside from opportunities not yet fully reflected in results; confidence in that valuation signal is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and written premium growth and adjusted EBITDA margins support the business: Q3 revenue rose 34% year over year, written premium rose 31%, and the margin was 62%. A recent earnings beat is positive, but the sector backdrop is a headwind and the evidence flags a history of misses; a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk.

What Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc hinges on

Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on NP sustaining growth and margins without cutting guidance. Sector conditions also matter: continued strong results and guidance from MRSH, AJG, and AON could support financial-sector momentum, while rate cuts from the current 3.88% are flagged as a headwind.