nCino Inc (NCNO)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$23.17-0.73%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge nCino Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.57 → 1.58 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	162.6M
EPS	—	0.331
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$644M–$647M	646.06M
Subscription revenue	$573.5M–$576.5M	—
EPS	—	1.315
Free cash flow	$137M–$142M	—
Operating income	$171M–$174Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	701.32M
EPS	—	1.578

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $135M-$140M Free Cash Flow in FY 2027	Free cash flow is set to reach $137.5M, showing strong cash generation.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $120M in FY 2027	Free cash flow: $34.004M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $135M-$140M FCF. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 25, 202634,004,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow rose from $52.6 million in 2025-Q1 to $80.8 million in 2026-Q1, showing improvement. Management guides fiscal year 2027 free cash flow between $135 million and $140 million. The trajectory shows progress toward the free cash flow target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain revenue growth trajectory	A supporting condition in nCino Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain revenue growth to at least $159.4M in Q1 2027.	Intact	Quarterly revenue growth stalls or declines below $150M	Revenue: $161.001M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Sustain revenue growth to at least $159.4M in Q1 2027. The stored target says 2027-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 25, 2026161,001,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9186ae8a-3b60-439c-87ba-78174a313014. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase revenue to $642M-$646M in FY 2027	A primary condition in nCino Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$644M total revenue.	Intact	Revenue falls below $585M in FY 2026	Revenue: $161.001M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$644M total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 25, 2026161,001,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9186ae8a-3b60-439c-87ba-78174a313014. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$1.58

$1.49 → $1.58 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$0.70B

$0.70B → $0.70B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.49	$701,639,902	8 / 11
2026-07-25	$1.49	$701,639,902	8 / 11
2026-07-26	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-07-27	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-07-28	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-07-29	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-07-30	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-07-31	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-02	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-03	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-04	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-05	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-06	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-07	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-09	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-10	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-12	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-13	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-14	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-17	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-18	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-19	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-20	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-21	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-24	$1.49	$701,760,671	8 / 10
2026-08-25	$1.49	$701,760,684	7 / 10
2026-08-26	$1.56	$701,043,990	8 / 10
2026-08-27	$1.56	$701,043,990	8 / 10
2026-08-28	$1.56	$701,043,990	8 / 10
2026-08-29	$1.57	$701,179,836	7 / 10
2026-08-30	$1.57	$701,179,836	7 / 10
2026-08-31	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-01	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-02	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-03	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-04	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-05	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-17	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-18	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-19	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 10
2026-09-20	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 11
2026-09-21	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 11
2026-09-22	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 11
2026-09-23	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 11
2026-09-24	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 11
2026-09-25	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 11
2026-09-26	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 11
2026-09-27	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 11
2026-09-28	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 11
2026-09-29	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 11
2026-09-30	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 11
2026-10-01	$1.57	$701,179,836	8 / 11
2026-10-02	$1.57	$701,179,529	8 / 11
2026-10-03	$1.57	$701,179,529	8 / 11
2026-10-04	$1.57	$701,179,529	8 / 11
2026-10-05	$1.57	$701,179,529	8 / 11
2026-10-06	$1.57	$701,179,529	8 / 11
2026-10-07	$1.57	$701,179,529	8 / 11
2026-10-08	$1.57	$701,179,529	8 / 11
2026-10-09	$1.57	$701,179,529	8 / 11
2026-10-10	$1.57	$701,179,529	8 / 11
2026-10-11	$1.57	$701,179,529	8 / 11
2026-10-12	$1.57	$701,179,529	8 / 11
2026-10-13	$1.57	$701,179,529	8 / 11
2026-10-14	$1.57	$701,179,529	8 / 11
2026-10-15	$1.57	$701,179,529	8 / 11
2026-10-16	$1.57	$701,323,848	8 / 11
2026-10-17	$1.57	$701,323,848	8 / 11
2026-10-18	$1.58	$701,323,848	9 / 11
2026-10-19	$1.58	$701,323,848	9 / 11
2026-10-20	$1.58	$701,323,848	9 / 11
2026-10-21	$1.58	$701,323,848	9 / 11
2026-10-22	$1.58	$701,323,848	9 / 11
2026-10-23	$1.58	$701,322,841	9 / 11
2026-10-24	$1.58	$701,322,841	9 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	5
2026-06-01	11	5
2026-07-01	10	4
2026-08-01	10	4
2026-09-01	10	4
2026-10-01	11	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $135M-$140M Free Cash Flow in FY 2027Free cash flow: $34.004M
Maintain revenue growth trajectoryRevenue: $161.001M
Increase revenue to $642M-$646M in FY 2027Revenue: $161.001M

Next proof point

Dec 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

nCino Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented software business with robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance. Its multi-year view is intact, though risk has recently risen from elevated to high and management is rated neutral.

What's priced into nCino Inc

The valuation signal is mixed: one measure points to NCNO being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 67% premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative at 0.27, and the overall priced-in assessment is justified with low fragility; together, these signals suggest the valuation is expensive and not especially forgiving.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue has grown steadily, recent earnings reports were marked as beats, and management remains on track with its FY 2027 revenue and free cash flow priorities. The main near-term risk is a guidance cut, especially given the evidence of peer misses and a deep miss in NCNO’s recent history; the estimated miss probability is 24%.

What nCino Inc hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued delivery against revenue and free cash flow goals, alongside disciplined execution. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while Fed rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as SAP, CRM, and NOW could support the broader sector backdrop.