MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. (MPLT)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$7.97-3.39%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MapLight Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-1.175
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-4.945
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	16.67M
EPS	—	-3.906

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain cash position near $450 million to fund operations through 2027	It has about $450 million cash to last through 2027.	Improving	Cash falls significantly below $450 million before end of 2027	Cash and cash equivalents: $71.633M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain ~$450 million cash through 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source date unavailable71,633,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_balance_sheet. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Cash and investments declined from $395.2M in 2026-Q1 to $351.3M in 2026-Q2, reflecting operational use, but a $150M private placement in August 2026 is expected to extend runway through 2028. Management is delivering on maintaining financial strength to support clinical programs. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Engage FDA in End-of-Phase 2 meeting to define clinical path	The company plans to meet the FDA to guide clinical steps.	Intact	No FDA meeting engagement by end of 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Control operating losses and cash burn to sustain development	A primary condition in MapLight Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating losses not worsen beyond -$64.5M quarterly.	Intact	Operating losses worsen beyond -$64.5M in any quarter	Operating income: $-63.548M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating losses not worsen beyond -$64.5M quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026-63,548,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5108b2ab-485f-48f5-9969-e217a3b79b40. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Net loss doubled from $29.8M in 2025-Q2 to $60.2M in 2026-Q2, driven by increased R&D expenses rising from $26.8M to $53.4M and G&A expenses from $3.8M to $10.1M. Management continues to invest heavily in clinical development, reflecting limited progress in reducing operating losses but consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Deliver topline results from Phase 2 ZEPHYR and ML-004 IRIS trials	MapLight aims to report Phase 2 trial results in Q3 2026.	Intact	Topline results not reported by end of Q3 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-3.91

$-4.14 → $-3.91 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.02B

$0.02B → $0.02B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-4.14	$16,666,667	7 / 9
2026-07-25	$-4.14	$16,666,667	7 / 9
2026-07-26	$-4.14	$16,666,667	7 / 9
2026-07-27	$-4.15	$16,666,667	7 / 9
2026-07-28	$-4.15	$16,666,667	7 / 9
2026-07-29	$-4.15	$16,666,667	7 / 9
2026-07-30	$-3.67	$18,181,820	8 / 11
2026-07-31	$-3.64	$20,000,000	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$-4.14	$16,666,667	8 / 11
2026-08-02	$-3.64	$20,000,000	8 / 10
2026-08-03	$-4.14	$16,666,667	8 / 10
2026-08-04	$-3.64	$20,000,000	8 / 10
2026-08-05	$-4.14	$16,666,667	8 / 10
2026-08-06	$-4.14	$16,666,667	8 / 10
2026-08-07	$-4.14	$16,666,667	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$-4.14	$16,666,667	8 / 10
2026-08-09	$-3.67	$18,181,820	8 / 11
2026-08-10	$-4.14	$16,666,667	8 / 10
2026-08-12	$-3.59	$18,181,820	9 / 11
2026-08-13	$-3.59	$18,181,820	9 / 11
2026-08-14	$-4.14	$16,666,667	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$-4.14	$16,666,667	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$-4.14	$16,666,667	8 / 11
2026-08-17	$-4.14	$16,666,667	8 / 11
2026-08-18	$-4.14	$16,666,667	8 / 11
2026-08-19	$-4.14	$16,666,667	8 / 10
2026-08-20	$-3.85	$16,666,667	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$-3.85	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-08-22	$-3.85	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-08-23	$-3.85	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-08-24	$-3.85	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-08-25	$-3.85	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-08-26	$-3.85	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-08-27	$-3.85	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-08-28	$-3.85	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-08-29	$-3.85	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-08-30	$-3.85	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-08-31	$-3.85	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-01	$-3.85	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-02	$-3.82	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-03	$-3.82	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-04	$-3.82	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-05	$-3.82	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-06	$-3.82	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-07	$-3.82	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-08	$-3.82	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-09	$-3.82	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-10	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-11	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-12	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-13	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-14	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-15	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-16	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-17	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-18	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-19	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-20	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-21	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-22	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-23	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-24	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-25	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-26	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-27	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-28	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-29	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-09-30	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-10-01	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-10-02	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-10-03	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-10-04	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-10-05	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-10-06	$-3.86	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-10-07	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 12
2026-10-08	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-09	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-10	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-11	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-12	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-13	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-14	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-15	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-16	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-17	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-18	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-19	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-20	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-21	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-22	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-23	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13
2026-10-24	$-3.91	$16,666,667	9 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	0
2026-06-01	12	0
2026-07-01	14	1
2026-08-01	13	2
2026-09-01	13	2
2026-10-01	12	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain cash position near $450 million to fund operations through 2027Cash and cash equivalents: $71.633M
Engage FDA in End-of-Phase 2 meeting to define clinical pathQualitative condition
Control operating losses and cash burn to sustain developmentOperating income: $-63.548M
Deliver topline results from Phase 2 ZEPHYR and ML-004 IRIS trialsQualitative condition

Next proof point

Dec 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-80.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a clinical-development company with a speculative growth profile, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its multi-year view is on watch: clinical programs are advancing, but recent financial performance is weak and the evidence snapshot has low confidence.

What's priced into MapLight Therapeutics, Inc.

The snapshot provides no valuation level or specific market expectations, so it is not possible to judge whether MPLT is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers. It reports low fragility, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings risk is elevated: the snapshot flags a 56% miss probability, citing recent misses and a high-miss-rate industry, despite an August earnings-beat event. Over the multi-year view, ML-007C-MA is progressing toward Phase 3 and ML-004 has encouraging Phase 2 results, while ADP trial results are expected in the second half of 2027; these programs remain clinical risks, not established products.

What MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on continued progress in the trials and on whether management maintains guidance at its next call. Weaker jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare names, while strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector sentiment.