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MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. (MPLT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$35.04-5.53%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that MPLT's growth potential is uncertain due to recent performance. The company has not shown enough recent financial performance history to establish a clear thesis. Revenue growth is weak, and the last quarter missed expectations by 23%. MPLT trades at a low confidence valuation, with no clean multiple to anchor. The risk is that the company may cut guidance on the next call, with a 73% chance of missing again. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Market cap
- $1.68B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-09-19
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-13
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $35.04. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$44.00
Range $44.00 – $44.00
vs price: -20% below
Method agreement : high · 1 method
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for MPLT right now, so treat our $44 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts target $36–$48. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-18%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$44.00
range $44.00 – $44.00
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
(median $44.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-24
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 18% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Compared to its own history
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stable4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=3552).
77th pctl · Health Care
Not investment advice. As of 2026-07-06.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral6 analysts, 100% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-1.22 → $-1.25 (-2.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 41.8% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$291.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$794.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,027.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 17d
Watch for topline results from Phase 2 trials in Q3 2026
Why it matters: Topline results will show if the trials are successful. This is key for future funding and partnerships.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Topline results from the Phase 2 ZEPHYR and ML-004 IRIS trials are positive.
Disproves:Topline results from the trials are negative or inconclusive.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-191mo agoInvesting.com UK
Threatens: Maintain strong financial position with cash runway through 2027
CEO stock sale raises concerns about financial stability.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth to re-accelerate above 10%
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting MPLT and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MPLT raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-22), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If MPLT cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-22), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping MPLT and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If MPLT misses again next quarter like this past one (a solid miss of -23% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-1819d agoItem 5.02
Chief Financial Officer — Vishwas Setia: Mr. Setia was separated as CFO following a review of a human resources violation.
Executive changenegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.