Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC)

NASDAQMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$7.32+1.24%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ramaco Resources, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	164.18M
EPS	—	-0.138
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	574.33M
EPS	—	-0.95
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	693.6M
EPS	—	-0.03

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain CAPEX between $85M and $90M for 2026	A primary condition in Ramaco Resources, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is CAPEX between $85M and $90M.	Broken	CAPEX exceeds $90M or falls below $85M in FY26	Capital expenditures: $27.135M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX between $85M and $90M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202627,135,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage cash cost of sales between $95 and $100 per ton	The company plans to manage cash costs between $95 and $100 per ton.	Improving	cash cost per ton falls outside $95-$100 range in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company achieved cash costs per ton sold of $98 in 2026-Q1 and $99 in 2026-Q2, maintaining the full-year 2026 guidance range of $96-$99 per ton despite elevated fuel costs. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter with sub-$100 cash costs, indicating delivery consistent with management's stated cost discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Advance rare earth strategy and grow revenue	It recently advanced its rare earth strategy with a supply agreement.	Under Pressure	no progress in rare earth strategy or revenue declines	Qualitative: 3 recent threats vs 3 prior advances Oct 1 report disappointed; Sep 6 analysts split; Aug 19 MoU with Iridium; Aug 18 MoUs with Indium/Bedrock; Jun 8 REalloys agreement. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.06 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.69B

$0.71B → $0.69B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.06	$711,935,920	8 / 8
2026-07-25	$0.06	$711,935,920	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$0.06	$711,935,920	8 / 8
2026-07-27	$0.05	$708,378,038	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$0.05	$708,378,038	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$0.06	$711,935,920	8 / 8
2026-07-30	$0.06	$711,935,920	8 / 8
2026-07-31	$0.06	$711,935,920	8 / 8
2026-08-01	$0.05	$708,378,038	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$0.06	$711,935,920	8 / 8
2026-08-03	$0.06	$711,935,920	8 / 8
2026-08-04	$0.06	$711,935,920	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$0.05	$708,378,038	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$0.06	$711,935,920	8 / 8
2026-08-07	$0.10	$704,104,371	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$0.30	$701,593,040	5 / 8
2026-08-09	$0.30	$701,593,040	5 / 8
2026-08-10	$0.10	$704,104,371	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$0.30	$701,593,040	5 / 8
2026-08-13	$0.30	$701,593,040	5 / 8
2026-08-14	$0.10	$704,104,371	5 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$704,104,371	4 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$704,104,371	4 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$704,104,371	4 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$704,104,371	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$704,104,371	4 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$697,807,463	4 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$697,807,463	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$697,807,463	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$697,807,463	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$697,807,463	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$697,807,463	4 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$697,807,463	4 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$697,807,463	4 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$697,807,463	4 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$692,918,575	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$694,772,078	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$694,772,078	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$694,772,078	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$693,549,856	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$693,549,856	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$693,549,856	4 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$693,549,856	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$693,549,856	4 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$693,549,856	4 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$693,549,856	4 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$693,549,856	4 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$693,549,856	4 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$693,549,856	4 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$693,549,856	4 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$693,549,856	4 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$693,549,856	4 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$693,600,967	4 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	2
2026-06-01	6	2
2026-07-01	6	2
2026-08-01	6	3
2026-09-01	6	3
2026-10-01	5	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 23 · prior Aug 6

$11.00 → $8.00-27.3%

$0$6.05$12.10

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain CAPEX between $85M and $90M for 2026Published status: Broken
Manage cash cost of sales between $95 and $100 per tonDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Advance rare earth strategy and grow revenuePublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-80.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ramaco Resources, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

METC is a cyclical materials business with a longer-term project-growth element from Brook Mine. Its thesis state is watch: the signal has shifted from cautious to mixed, but recent performance remains weak and below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Ramaco Resources, Inc.

The evidence describes METC as cheap versus peers, with no premium to peers, but model confidence is low. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment is tagged justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to a clear mismatch between expectations and fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, repeated earnings misses and a 49% estimated miss probability leave execution under scrutiny, and a guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative. Management has kept costs below $100 per ton for four quarters and projects remain on track, while Brook Mine pilot operations are expected in 2027; litigation filed in September adds a risk to monitor.

What Ramaco Resources, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether METC avoids another guidance cut and improves recent financial performance. Sector bellwethers HCC, AMR, and AREC provide an important signal: continued strong results could sustain sector support, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it. Over the multi-year view, progress on Brook Mine financing and offtake, alongside planned low-vol coal expansion, will matter.