MEDLINE INC (MDLN)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$35.96-1.67%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MEDLINE INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.57 → 1.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain Adjusted EBITDA outlook of $3.5 to $3.6 billion	Medline aims for adjusted EBITDA near $3.55 billion in 2026.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $3.5 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was $3.5 to $3.6 billion in 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1, then revised downward to $3.3 to $3.4 billion in 2026-Q2 due to inflationary pressures and operational investments. Adjusted EBITDA for first six months 2026 increased 1.9% to $1.84 billion versus prior year, showing limited progress relative to full year guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve organic sales growth of 8% to 9%	It targets organic sales growth of 8% to 9%.	Intact	organic sales growth falls below 7% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage quality control and supply chain risks	A primary condition in MEDLINE INC's published investment case. The stated target is no new FDA warnings and resolution of supply issues.	Under Pressure	additional FDA warnings or prolonged supply shortages	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Announce and execute share buyback program	The company announced a share buyback program, showing capital return focus.	Intact	no buyback program announced or executed within 1 year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.56

$1.66 → $1.56 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$33.69B

$33.56B → $33.69B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.66	$33,562,681,045	15 / 18
2026-07-25	$1.66	$33,562,681,045	15 / 18
2026-07-26	$1.67	$35,031,689,770	23 / 23
2026-07-27	$1.66	$33,562,681,045	15 / 18
2026-07-28	$1.67	$35,031,689,770	23 / 23
2026-07-29	$1.67	$35,031,689,770	23 / 23
2026-07-30	$1.66	$33,561,306,045	15 / 18
2026-07-31	$1.67	$35,031,689,770	23 / 23
2026-08-01	$1.66	$33,561,306,045	15 / 18
2026-08-02	$1.67	$35,031,689,770	23 / 23
2026-08-03	$1.67	$35,031,689,770	23 / 23
2026-08-04	$1.66	$33,561,306,045	15 / 18
2026-08-05	$1.66	$33,561,306,045	15 / 18
2026-08-06	$1.66	$33,561,306,045	15 / 18
2026-08-07	$1.62	$33,647,158,172	15 / 18
2026-08-08	$1.62	$33,672,188,660	24 / 24
2026-08-09	$1.62	$33,672,188,660	24 / 24
2026-08-10	$1.62	$33,647,158,172	15 / 18
2026-08-12	$1.62	$33,647,158,172	15 / 18
2026-08-13	$1.60	$33,705,092,870	24 / 24
2026-08-14	$1.62	$33,647,158,172	15 / 18
2026-08-15	$1.62	$33,647,158,172	15 / 18
2026-08-16	$1.62	$33,647,158,172	15 / 18
2026-08-17	$1.62	$33,647,158,172	15 / 18
2026-08-18	$1.62	$33,647,158,172	15 / 18
2026-08-19	$1.62	$33,647,158,172	15 / 18
2026-08-20	$1.57	$33,668,869,008	15 / 19
2026-08-21	$1.57	$33,669,629,008	15 / 19
2026-08-22	$1.57	$33,669,629,008	15 / 19
2026-08-23	$1.57	$33,669,629,008	15 / 19
2026-08-24	$1.57	$33,669,629,008	15 / 19
2026-08-25	$1.57	$33,669,629,008	15 / 19
2026-08-26	$1.57	$33,669,629,008	15 / 19
2026-08-27	$1.57	$33,669,629,008	15 / 19
2026-08-28	$1.57	$33,669,629,008	15 / 19
2026-08-29	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 19
2026-08-30	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 19
2026-08-31	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 19
2026-09-01	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 19
2026-09-02	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 19
2026-09-03	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 19
2026-09-04	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-05	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-06	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-07	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-08	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-09	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-10	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-11	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-12	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-13	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-14	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-15	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-16	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-17	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-18	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-19	$1.57	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-20	$1.58	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-21	$1.58	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-22	$1.58	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-23	$1.58	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-24	$1.58	$33,669,612,463	15 / 18
2026-09-25	$1.57	$33,673,028,464	15 / 18
2026-09-26	$1.57	$33,673,028,464	15 / 19
2026-09-27	$1.57	$33,673,028,464	15 / 19
2026-09-28	$1.57	$33,673,028,464	15 / 19
2026-09-29	$1.57	$33,673,028,464	15 / 19
2026-09-30	$1.57	$33,673,028,464	15 / 19
2026-10-01	$1.57	$33,673,028,464	15 / 19
2026-10-02	$1.57	$33,673,028,464	15 / 19
2026-10-03	$1.57	$33,673,028,464	15 / 19
2026-10-04	$1.57	$33,673,028,464	15 / 19
2026-10-05	$1.57	$33,673,028,464	15 / 19
2026-10-06	$1.57	$33,686,108,463	15 / 19
2026-10-07	$1.57	$33,686,124,464	15 / 19
2026-10-08	$1.57	$33,686,124,464	15 / 19
2026-10-09	$1.57	$33,686,124,464	15 / 20
2026-10-10	$1.57	$33,686,124,464	15 / 20
2026-10-11	$1.56	$33,686,124,464	15 / 20
2026-10-12	$1.56	$33,686,124,464	15 / 20
2026-10-13	$1.56	$33,685,603,100	15 / 20
2026-10-14	$1.56	$33,685,603,100	15 / 20
2026-10-15	$1.56	$33,685,603,100	15 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	24	5
2026-06-01	24	4
2026-07-01	24	4
2026-08-01	23	4
2026-09-01	23	4
2026-10-01	23	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Jun 1

$45.00 → $43.00-4.4%

UBSSep 25

$43.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$24.75$49.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain Adjusted EBITDA outlook of $3.5 to $3.6 billionPublished status: Broken
Achieve organic sales growth of 8% to 9%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Manage quality control and supply chain risksPublished status: Under Pressure
Announce and execute share buyback programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MEDLINE INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MDLN represents a durable compounder with a focus on organic sales growth and adjusted EBITDA. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial results have been strong, although there are mixed signals from management priorities.

What's priced into MEDLINE INC

The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that MDLN's valuation is aligned with its peers. There is a low level of fragility in the current market regime, suggesting that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, supported by strong organic sales growth reported in the first half of 2026. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for earnings misses, as recent surprises have been trending down.

What MEDLINE INC hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet their guidance without cutting it, as this could damage credibility. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and overall economic conditions will play a critical role in MDLN's trajectory.