Mattel (MAT)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$16.41-3.13%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Mattel’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.58 → 1.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.85B
EPS	—	0.574
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.68B
EPS	—	1.294
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	6B
EPS	—	1.571

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS reaches at least $1.27 in FY26	A primary condition in Mattel's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.27 per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.10 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $-0.06 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.27 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026-0.06 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0a930b28-2e8c-4cbb-8651-c7d300411bf9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin stays at or above 50% in FY26	The company targets over $5.3B revenue and aims to improve profit margins with a gross margin above 50%.	Improving	Gross margin falls below 48% in FY26	Gross margin: 48.17% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 50%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202648.174573 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0a930b28-2e8c-4cbb-8651-c7d300411bf9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves toward positive territory	A primary condition in Mattel's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income improves by at least 20% YoY in FY26.	Improving	Operating income declines further or remains below -$80M in FY26	Operating income: $10.873M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves by at least 20% YoY in FY26. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 6, 202610,873,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0a930b28-2e8c-4cbb-8651-c7d300411bf9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $5.348B in FY26	A primary condition in Mattel's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.348 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $5.0 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.125B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.348 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261,125,326,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0a930b28-2e8c-4cbb-8651-c7d300411bf9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.57

$1.61 → $1.57 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.00B

$5.96B → $6.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.61	$5,958,589,740	13 / 12
2026-07-25	$1.61	$5,958,589,740	13 / 12
2026-07-26	$1.61	$5,958,589,740	13 / 12
2026-07-27	$1.59	$5,987,605,201	8 / 9
2026-07-28	$1.61	$5,958,589,740	13 / 12
2026-07-29	$1.59	$5,987,605,201	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$1.61	$5,958,589,740	13 / 12
2026-07-31	$1.61	$5,958,589,740	13 / 12
2026-08-01	$1.59	$5,987,605,201	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$1.61	$5,958,589,740	13 / 12
2026-08-03	$1.61	$5,958,589,740	13 / 12
2026-08-04	$1.61	$5,958,589,740	13 / 12
2026-08-05	$1.61	$5,958,589,740	13 / 12
2026-08-06	$1.61	$5,958,589,740	13 / 12
2026-08-07	$1.59	$6,007,838,072	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$1.60	$5,977,647,810	14 / 13
2026-08-09	$1.60	$5,977,647,810	14 / 13
2026-08-10	$1.60	$5,977,647,810	14 / 13
2026-08-12	$1.59	$5,977,647,810	14 / 13
2026-08-13	$1.59	$6,007,838,072	8 / 10
2026-08-14	$1.59	$6,007,838,072	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$1.59	$6,007,838,072	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$1.59	$6,007,838,072	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$1.59	$6,007,838,072	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$1.59	$6,007,838,072	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$1.59	$6,007,838,072	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$1.59	$6,001,907,499	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$1.59	$6,001,907,499	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$1.59	$6,001,907,499	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$1.59	$6,001,907,499	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$1.59	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$1.59	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$1.59	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$1.59	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-10	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-11	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-12	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-13	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-14	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-15	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-16	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-17	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-18	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-19	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-20	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-21	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-22	$1.58	$6,000,668,254	9 / 11
2026-09-23	$1.58	$6,000,114,040	9 / 11
2026-09-24	$1.58	$6,000,114,040	9 / 11
2026-09-25	$1.58	$6,000,114,040	9 / 11
2026-09-26	$1.58	$6,000,085,469	9 / 11
2026-09-27	$1.58	$6,000,085,469	9 / 11
2026-09-28	$1.58	$6,000,085,469	8 / 11
2026-09-29	$1.58	$6,000,085,469	8 / 11
2026-09-30	$1.58	$6,000,085,469	8 / 11
2026-10-01	$1.58	$6,000,085,469	8 / 11
2026-10-02	$1.58	$6,000,021,183	8 / 11
2026-10-03	$1.58	$6,000,021,183	8 / 11
2026-10-04	$1.58	$5,995,299,736	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$1.58	$5,995,299,736	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$1.58	$5,995,299,736	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$1.58	$5,995,299,736	7 / 10
2026-10-08	$1.58	$5,995,299,736	7 / 10
2026-10-09	$1.58	$5,995,299,736	7 / 10
2026-10-10	$1.58	$5,995,299,736	7 / 10
2026-10-11	$1.58	$5,995,299,736	7 / 10
2026-10-12	$1.58	$5,995,299,736	7 / 10
2026-10-13	$1.57	$5,995,299,736	7 / 10
2026-10-14	$1.57	$5,995,299,736	7 / 10
2026-10-15	$1.57	$5,995,299,736	7 / 10
2026-10-16	$1.57	$5,994,103,361	7 / 10
2026-10-17	$1.57	$5,994,103,361	7 / 10
2026-10-18	$1.57	$5,994,103,361	7 / 10
2026-10-19	$1.57	$5,994,103,361	7 / 10
2026-10-20	$1.57	$5,994,103,361	7 / 10
2026-10-21	$1.57	$5,994,103,361	7 / 10
2026-10-22	$1.57	$5,994,103,361	7 / 10
2026-10-23	$1.57	$5,997,445,308	7 / 10
2026-10-24	$1.57	$5,997,445,308	7 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	6	1
2026-06-01	9	6	1
2026-07-01	10	5	2
2026-08-01	10	4	2
2026-09-01	11	4	2
2026-10-01	11	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Seaport GlobalOct 12

$20.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$11.00$22.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS reaches at least $1.27 in FY26Diluted EPS: $-0.06 per share
Gross margin stays at or above 50% in FY26Gross margin: 48.17%
Operating income improves toward positive territoryOperating income: $10.873M
Revenue grows to at least $5.348B in FY26Revenue: $1.125B

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Mattel outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MAT is a consumer business with a multi-year thesis centered on IP-driven play, family entertainment, and cost savings. That thesis is in a watch state: earnings quality is robust, but recent financial performance is weak, management is volatile, and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Mattel

The valuation evidence says MAT is cheap versus peers, but the expectations gap is slightly negative, meaning market expectations are not clearly undemanding. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; valuation has also fallen notably in the recent period.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results remain uneven: 2025 full-year sales declined, 2026 guidance calls for growth, and the latest reported quarter had an adjusted operating loss despite cost savings partly offsetting tariff costs. Management reaffirmed guidance as of August 4, but recent misses, a CEO transition, and weak performance versus industry peers leave execution as a key concern.

What Mattel hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on delivering the guided growth and improving profitability through cost savings and efficiency work. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the business backdrop; weakness at those companies could remove that support.