ManpowerGroup (MAN)
NYSEIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$56.72-0.86%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Increase gross profit to at least $723M per quarter: gross profit $782.5M vs $723M target; gross margin 16.1% vs 16.0% prior.
ManpowerGroup is growing revenue about 10% yearly. Gross profit rose to $723M in Q1 2026. The company keeps paying a stable dividend of $0.72 per share. Earnings per share are expected near $0.96 next quarter.
Operating income is barely improving, stuck near $28M. The sector faces headwinds and cautious hiring in India. Earnings guidance is soft, showing uncertainty ahead.
The price is about 23% below our fair value near $51. Analysts expect 4% revenue growth, which is lower than recent 10% growth. The market prices in a cautious outlook consistent with the soft guidance.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.70
Continue to pay semi-annual dividends to shareholders, maintaining dividend levels.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on strategic transformation and revenue growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial improvements despite ongoing risks in the sector.
The market appears to have priced in a level of stability, as indicated by a justified valuation despite being expensive compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that some cautious optimism is already reflected in the current valuation.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued revenue growth, particularly in key regions, as management executes its strategic priorities. However, there is a high risk associated with potential guidance cuts, which could negatively impact performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like PAYX, RHI, and KFY, which could influence MAN's momentum. Additionally, successful execution of management's strategic initiatives will be crucial for maintaining investor confidence.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'high' to 'elevated'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Increased hiring confidence in key regions may boost revenue and market share. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 5 quarters. The Board declared a semi-annual dividend of $0.72 per share in 2026-Q2, consistent with the prior quarter. Dividend payments have been maintained as committed, showing delivery on capital allocation priorities.
“Board declared a semi-annual dividend of $0.72 per share payable June 15, 2026.”
“Dividend per share was $0.72 declared by the Board.”
Breaks if: Gross profit falls below $700M per quarter
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $25M per quarter
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 8% next year
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MAN's performance will depend on both sector dynamics and management execution. Not investment advice.