ManpowerGroup (MAN)

NYSEIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$47.53+2.00%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ManpowerGroup’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-4.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.88 → 4.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	4.93B
EPS	—	1.075
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	4.65B
EPS	—	0.701
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	19.13B
EPS	—	3.597
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	19.8B
EPS	—	4.677

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain stable dividend payout at $0.72 per share	The company keeps paying a stable dividend of $0.72 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.70	Dividend per share: $0.72 per share FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.72 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published May 8, 20260.72 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q1 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2bb5ca3a-82e3-45a4-ae3b-f3b4a56b5b8f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase gross profit to at least $723M per quarter	Gross profit rose to $723M in Q1 2026.	Under Pressure	Gross profit falls below $700M per quarter	Gross profit: $767.3M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$723M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 15, 2026767,300,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve operating income above $28M per quarter	Earnings per share are expected near $0.96 next quarter.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $25M per quarter	Operating income: $82.3M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: > $28M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 15, 202682,300,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue growth near 10% YoY	A primary condition in ManpowerGroup's published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 8% next year	Revenue growth: 4.44% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 15, 20264.436389 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.68

$4.85 → $4.68 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$19.80B

$19.87B → $19.80B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.85	$19,866,105,340	11 / 9
2026-07-25	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$4.85	$19,866,105,340	11 / 9
2026-07-27	$4.85	$19,866,105,340	11 / 9
2026-07-28	$4.85	$19,866,105,340	11 / 9
2026-07-29	$4.85	$19,866,105,340	11 / 9
2026-07-30	$4.85	$19,866,105,340	11 / 9
2026-07-31	$4.85	$19,866,105,340	11 / 9
2026-08-01	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$4.85	$19,866,105,340	11 / 9
2026-08-03	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$4.85	$19,866,105,340	11 / 9
2026-08-05	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-07	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$4.85	$19,866,105,340	11 / 9
2026-08-09	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$4.85	$19,866,105,340	11 / 9
2026-08-13	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$4.88	$19,866,077,787	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$4.88	$19,866,082,776	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$4.86	$19,852,638,332	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$4.86	$19,852,638,332	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$4.86	$19,852,638,332	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$4.86	$19,835,852,287	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$4.86	$19,835,847,298	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$4.72	$19,768,555,413	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$4.72	$19,768,555,413	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$4.69	$19,796,599,858	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$4.69	$19,796,599,858	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$4.69	$19,796,599,858	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$4.69	$19,796,599,858	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$4.68	$19,796,599,858	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$4.68	$19,796,599,858	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$4.68	$19,796,599,858	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	8
2026-06-01	4	8
2026-07-01	4	8
2026-08-01	4	8
2026-09-01	4	8
2026-10-01	4	8

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BMO CapitalOct 19 · prior Jul 17

$63.00 → $58.00-7.9%

UBSOct 16 · prior Oct 13

$56.00 → $48.00-14.3%

Robert W. BairdOct 16 · prior Jul 17

$72.00 → $65.00-9.7%

JefferiesOct 16 · prior Jul 15

$37.00 → $47.00+27.0%

Goldman SachsOct 15 · prior Jul 17

$57.00 → $50.00-12.3%

$0$39.60$79.20

1 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain stable dividend payout at $0.72 per shareDividend per share: $0.72 per share
Increase gross profit to at least $723M per quarterPublished status: Under Pressure
Improve operating income above $28M per quarterPublished status: Under Pressure
Maintain revenue growth near 10% YoYPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ManpowerGroup outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk turnaround and execution story, not yet a durable compounder, because the company is still loss-making. The multi-year view remains intact: recent performance is strong relative to its industry, and management is making progress on costs and profitability.

What's priced into ManpowerGroup

The evidence labels MAN expensive, while also describing it as cheap versus peers; those signals conflict, so the relative valuation picture is unclear. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests expectations may be demanding, though the supplied evidence gives no detail on exactly what the market assumes. Priced-in fragility is low, and guidance credibility has recently improved.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and operating profit have improved year over year, and quarterly selling, general and administrative costs have fallen. Management remains on track with its cost-savings goal, but that goal is still ahead, revenue progress is uneven across brands and markets, and the company remains loss-making. Near-term risk is rated high despite a low estimated chance of a miss; a recent deep miss and weak peer results are reasons for caution.

What ManpowerGroup hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued cost savings, further profitability gains, and broader revenue and market-share progress. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as PAYX, RHI, and KFY would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.