Macerich (MAC)

NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$24.10+0.63%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Macerich’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+51.9% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.13 → 0.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	271.51M
EPS	—	0.078
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	991.52M
EPS	—	-0.163
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.07B
EPS	—	0.204

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage dilution from equity offerings	A supporting condition in Macerich's published investment case. The stated target is no further large equity dilution.	Improving	additional large equity offerings announced	No large equity dilution; $775M debt issued MAC issued $775M exchangeable notes and announced a buyback; no new equity offerings detected in recent news. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Cash from operating activities growth	Macerich focuses on boosting cash flow, which rose from $50M to $77M recently.	Intact	cash from operating activities falls below $50M	Cash from operations: $49.762M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $77.4M cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202649,762,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Reduction in net income losses	A primary condition in Macerich's published investment case. The stated target is net income loss improves toward <$18.7M.	Intact	net income loss worsens beyond $36.4M	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth or stabilization	A primary condition in Macerich's published investment case. The stated target is >= $241.5M quarterly revenue.	Intact	quarterly revenue falls below $241.5M	Revenue: $249.707M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $241.5M quarterly revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026249,707,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0431db6d-889d-4cde-a168-af4b13eabd4e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.20

$0.12 → $0.20 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.07B

$1.05B → $1.07B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.12	$1,050,609,445	6 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,022,213,450	2 / 7
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,022,213,450	2 / 7
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,022,213,450	2 / 7
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,022,213,450	2 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,022,213,450	2 / 7
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,022,213,450	2 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,022,213,450	2 / 7
2026-08-01	$0.12	$1,050,609,449	6 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,022,213,450	2 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,022,213,450	2 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,022,213,450	2 / 7
2026-08-05	$0.12	$1,050,609,449	6 / 5
2026-08-06	$0.12	$1,050,609,449	6 / 5
2026-08-07	$0.11	$1,050,062,038	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$0.11	$1,050,062,038	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$0.11	$1,050,062,038	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$0.11	$1,050,062,038	6 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,035,043,310	4 / 7
2026-08-13	$0.11	$1,050,062,038	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$0.11	$1,050,062,038	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$0.11	$1,050,062,038	7 / 6
2026-08-16	$0.11	$1,050,062,038	7 / 6
2026-08-17	$0.11	$1,050,062,038	7 / 6
2026-08-18	$0.11	$1,050,062,038	7 / 6
2026-08-19	$0.11	$1,050,062,038	7 / 5
2026-08-20	$0.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-21	$0.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-22	$0.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-23	$0.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-24	$0.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-25	$0.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-26	$0.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-27	$0.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-28	$0.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-29	$0.11	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-30	$0.11	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-31	$0.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-01	$0.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-02	$0.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-03	$0.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-04	$0.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-05	$0.13	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-06	$0.13	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-07	$0.13	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-08	$0.13	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-09	$0.13	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-10	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-11	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-12	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-13	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-14	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-15	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-16	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$0.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$0.09	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$0.15	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$0.15	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$0.15	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-05	$0.15	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-06	$0.15	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-07	$0.15	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-08	$0.15	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-09	$0.15	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-10	$0.15	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-11	$0.15	$1,061,588,023	6 / 5
2026-10-12	$0.15	$1,061,588,023	6 / 5
2026-10-13	$0.15	$1,061,588,023	6 / 5
2026-10-14	$0.15	$1,061,588,023	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$0.15	$1,061,588,023	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$0.15	$1,061,588,023	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$0.15	$1,061,588,023	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$0.18	$1,071,109,647	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$0.18	$1,071,109,647	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$0.18	$1,071,109,647	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$0.20	$1,067,326,421	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$0.20	$1,067,326,421	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$0.20	$1,067,326,421	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$0.20	$1,066,663,646	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	6	2
2026-06-01	10	6	2
2026-07-01	9	6	1
2026-08-01	10	6	1
2026-09-01	12	5	1
2026-10-01	13	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 12 · prior Aug 27

$30.00 → $26.00-13.3%

BNP ParibasOct 9

$28.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$16.50$33.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operating activities growthCash from operations: $49.762M
Reduction in net income lossesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth or stabilizationRevenue: $249.707M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Macerich outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a real estate recovery and execution story, not a proven durable compounder, because the evidence still classifies earnings as loss-making. The long-term thesis has improved, with momentum moving from cautious to mixed, but its formal state remains insufficient because recent financial history is too limited to assess it.

What's priced into Macerich

MAC is valued at a notable premium to peers, while the model points to a meaningful expectations gap driven by optionality, or value tied to possible future gains. The valuation signal is tagged unjustified, but fragility is low; the evidence does not show that optimism is broadly concentrated across valuation, weak fundamentals, and market turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, leasing and NOI, meaning net operating income, have been progressing: portfolio NOI grew 3.8% year over year in the second quarter, and the leasing speedometer reached 88%, above its 85% mid-year target. Management has also increased liquidity and completed dispositions as part of its balance-sheet plan, though the new-store pipeline remains on watch and the business is still loss-making. Recent earnings were described as a beat, but sector conditions are a headwind and peers have recently missed, so a guidance cut remains a meaningful risk.

What Macerich hinges on

Over the next few quarters, continued leasing progress, growth in signed-not-open revenue, and completion of anchor repositioning commitments would support the multi-year thesis. Federal Reserve rate cuts or continued strength at sector peers could help the backdrop, while weaker guidance or setbacks in leasing and balance-sheet execution would weaken it.