Legence Corp. (LGN)

NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$36.07-2.14%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Legence Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.68 → 2.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.22B
EPS	—	0.535
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	4.79B
EPS	—	1.333
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5.45B
EPS	—	2.642

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Full year 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA at $480M (midpoint)	Non-GAAP EBITDA guidance also increased to $470M-$490M.	Intact	Full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA falls below $470M	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA increased from $50.8 million in 2025-Q1 to $154.6 million in 2026-Q2, more than tripling. Management raised full year 2026 EBITDA guidance twice, from $295-$315 million in 2025-Q4 to $470-$490 million in 2026-Q1, then to $565-$585 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering strongly against this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Stable and effective management execution	A supporting condition in Legence Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or improve management stability and execution.	Intact	Significant management disruptions or failure to meet guidance	Qualitative: Guidance raised to $4.7B-$4.8B; no executive departures Q2 2026 results showed record revenue and raised guidance. No significant management departures; recent board changes were routine. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year 2026 revenue at $4.2B (midpoint)	Legence raised full year 2026 revenue guidance to $4.1B-$4.3B.	Intact	Full year 2026 revenue falls below $4.1B	Revenue: $1.262B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.2B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 20261,262,127,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5f0b07a5-bc84-4c86-8154-fb41eaa86549. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $505.95 million in 2025-Q1 to $1.26 billion in 2026-Q2, more than doubling. Management raised full year 2026 revenue guidance twice, from $2.65-$2.85 billion in 2025-Q4 to $4.1-$4.3 billion in 2026-Q1, then to $4.7-$4.8 billion in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering strongly against this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.64

$2.03 → $2.64 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.45B

$4.92B → $5.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 10
2026-07-25	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 10
2026-07-26	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 10
2026-07-27	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 10
2026-07-28	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 10
2026-07-29	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 10
2026-07-30	$1.78	$4,871,763,260	13 / 15
2026-07-31	$1.78	$4,871,763,260	13 / 15
2026-08-01	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 10
2026-08-02	$1.78	$4,871,763,260	13 / 15
2026-08-03	$1.78	$4,871,763,260	13 / 15
2026-08-04	$1.78	$4,871,763,260	13 / 15
2026-08-05	$1.78	$4,871,763,260	13 / 15
2026-08-06	$1.78	$4,871,763,260	13 / 15
2026-08-07	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$1.78	$4,871,763,260	13 / 15
2026-08-09	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 10
2026-08-10	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 10
2026-08-12	$1.78	$4,871,763,260	13 / 15
2026-08-13	$1.78	$4,871,763,260	13 / 15
2026-08-14	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 10
2026-08-17	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 10
2026-08-18	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 11
2026-08-19	$2.03	$4,920,932,397	8 / 11
2026-08-20	$2.50	$5,419,842,124	7 / 11
2026-08-21	$2.58	$5,460,312,712	7 / 11
2026-08-22	$2.58	$5,460,312,712	8 / 11
2026-08-23	$2.64	$5,460,312,712	8 / 11
2026-08-24	$2.64	$5,460,312,712	8 / 11
2026-08-25	$2.64	$5,460,312,712	8 / 11
2026-08-26	$2.64	$5,460,312,712	8 / 11
2026-08-27	$2.64	$5,460,312,712	8 / 11
2026-08-28	$2.64	$5,460,312,712	8 / 11
2026-08-29	$2.64	$5,460,312,712	8 / 11
2026-08-30	$2.64	$5,446,151,007	8 / 11
2026-08-31	$2.64	$5,446,151,007	8 / 11
2026-09-01	$2.64	$5,446,151,007	8 / 11
2026-09-02	$2.64	$5,446,151,007	8 / 11
2026-09-03	$2.64	$5,446,151,007	8 / 11
2026-09-04	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-05	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-06	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-07	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-08	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-09	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-10	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-11	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-12	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-13	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-14	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-15	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-16	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-17	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-18	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-19	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-20	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-21	$2.80	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-22	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-23	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-24	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-25	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-26	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	8 / 11
2026-09-27	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	7 / 11
2026-09-28	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	7 / 11
2026-09-29	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	7 / 11
2026-09-30	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	7 / 11
2026-10-01	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	7 / 11
2026-10-02	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	7 / 11
2026-10-03	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	7 / 11
2026-10-04	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	7 / 11
2026-10-05	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	7 / 11
2026-10-06	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	7 / 11
2026-10-07	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	7 / 11
2026-10-08	$2.68	$5,446,153,144	7 / 11
2026-10-09	$2.68	$5,446,132,932	7 / 11
2026-10-10	$2.68	$5,446,132,932	7 / 11
2026-10-11	$2.68	$5,446,132,932	7 / 11
2026-10-12	$2.68	$5,446,132,932	7 / 11
2026-10-13	$2.68	$5,446,132,932	7 / 11
2026-10-14	$2.68	$5,446,132,932	7 / 11
2026-10-15	$2.68	$5,446,132,932	7 / 11
2026-10-16	$2.68	$5,446,132,932	7 / 11
2026-10-17	$2.68	$5,446,132,932	7 / 11
2026-10-18	$2.64	$5,446,132,932	8 / 11
2026-10-19	$2.64	$5,446,132,932	8 / 11
2026-10-20	$2.64	$5,446,132,932	8 / 11
2026-10-21	$2.64	$5,446,132,932	8 / 11
2026-10-22	$2.64	$5,446,132,932	8 / 11
2026-10-23	$2.64	$5,446,132,932	8 / 10
2026-10-24	$2.64	$5,446,132,932	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	16	1
2026-06-01	16	1
2026-07-01	16	1
2026-08-01	16	1
2026-09-01	16	1
2026-10-01	16	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 20

$83.00New observation · no comparable prior

Stifel NicolausOct 8 · prior Apr 16

$77.00 → $82.00+6.5%

$0$45.65$91.30

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Full year 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA at $480M (midpoint)Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Full year 2026 revenue at $4.2B (midpoint)Revenue: $1.262B

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-64.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Legence Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a fast-growing industrial business with evidence of rising revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and backlog. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management priorities are on track, but recent performance has lagged its industry cohort and risk has risen to high.

What's priced into Legence Corp.

The valuation is tagged as justified, with no flagged signs of concentrated fragility, but it trades at a premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be demanding; confidence in that reading is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the recent earnings miss and erratic surprises create a risk that results or guidance disappoint again, despite a low stated miss risk. Across the reported quarters, revenue and adjusted EBITDA rose sharply, management raised 2026 guidance twice, and backlog more than doubled, supporting the multi-year growth case if execution continues.

What Legence Corp. hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback, while continued delivery against the higher 2026 targets would support the thesis. The sector backdrop also matters: continued strength from PWR, FIX, and EME could sustain an industry tailwind, while misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.