Kontoor Brands (KTB)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$76.04-2.24%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 25, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Kontoor Brands’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.58 → 6.57 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 25, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	811.06M
EPS	—	1.888
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.66B–$2.71B	2.7B
EPS	$5.25–$5.35non-GAAP	5.294
Capital expenditure	About $30M	—
Gross margin	49.8%–50%non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.81B
EPS	—	6.572

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow at least $425 million in 2026	The company plans to generate free cash flow of at least $425 million and has a new $750 million share buyback program.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $400 million	Free cash flow: $45.371M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$425M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 202645,371,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin stays near 14.8% in 2026	Profit margins should stay near 15% operating margin and gross margin around 47.3%.	Improving	Operating margin falls below 14%	Operating margin: 15.49% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=14.8%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 202615.493387 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8c350cdf-4f07-4272-8e40-372c9d9ed684. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches approximately $3.44 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Kontoor Brands's published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.44B.	Broken	Revenue falls below $3.1 billion in FY26	Revenue: $584.288M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.44B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 2026584,288,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8c350cdf-4f07-4272-8e40-372c9d9ed684. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Execution of $750 million share repurchase program	The company plans to generate free cash flow of at least $425 million and has a new $750 million share buyback program.	Intact	Buyback program is materially delayed or canceled	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$6.57

$6.48 → $6.57 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.81B

$2.81B → $2.81B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.48	$2,814,577,474	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$6.48	$2,814,577,474	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$6.47	$2,815,077,474	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$6.47	$2,815,077,474	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$6.47	$2,815,077,474	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-07	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$2,815,303,939	4 / 6
2026-08-19	$6.47	$2,815,303,939	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$6.58	$2,815,549,393	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$6.58	$2,815,549,393	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$6.58	$2,815,549,393	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$6.58	$2,815,549,393	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$6.58	$2,815,549,393	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$6.58	$2,814,949,393	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$6.58	$2,814,949,393	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$6.58	$2,814,949,393	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$6.58	$2,814,949,393	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$6.58	$2,814,949,393	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$6.58	$2,814,949,393	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$6.58	$2,815,545,568	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$6.58	$2,815,520,568	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$6.58	$2,815,520,568	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$6.57	$2,814,520,568	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$6.57	$2,814,520,568	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$6.57	$2,814,520,568	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$6.57	$2,814,196,060	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$6.57	$2,814,196,060	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$6.57	$2,814,196,060	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$6.57	$2,814,196,060	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$6.57	$2,814,862,727	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$6.57	$2,814,937,558	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$6.57	$2,814,937,558	5 / 6
2026-10-25	$6.57	$2,814,937,558	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	2	1
2026-06-01	7	2	1
2026-07-01	7	2	1
2026-08-01	7	2	1
2026-09-01	7	2	1
2026-10-01	8	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 26–Oct 25 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 14

$89.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$48.95$97.90

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 26, 2026–Oct 25, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow at least $425 million in 2026Free cash flow: $45.371M
Operating margin stays near 14.8% in 2026Operating margin: 15.49%
Revenue reaches approximately $3.44 billion in 2026Published status: Broken
Execution of $750 million share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Kontoor Brands outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

KTB is a brand-focused business with a multi-year growth and portfolio-sharpening story, rather than a clear turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, though management execution is rated volatile and some plans are not yet proven.

What's priced into Kontoor Brands

The evidence describes KTB as cheap versus peers, with valuation tagged as justified and no fragility warnings. The expectations gap is modestly negative, so the evidence does not point to a large gap between expectations and the current setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong, and the risk label has moved from elevated to moderate. Near term, earnings surprise trends are weakening and recent surprises have been erratic, although the estimated chance of a miss is low. Helly Hansen growth and the planned Lee divestiture are key execution tests over the multi-year view.

What Kontoor Brands hinges on

The next guidance update matters: a cut could prompt estimates to move lower and weaken the thesis. Sector signals also matter, since continued strong results and guidance from RL, LEVI, and VFC could support the consumer discretionary backdrop, while weaker results could remove that support. The Lee sale closing and delivery against Helly Hansen’s longer-term growth plan remain company-specific swing factors.