IonQ, Inc. (IONQ)
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-09
$38.14-5.76%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating income improves from -$271.51M in 2026-Q1: Operating income not reported.
IonQ raised full-year revenue guidance to $270 million. Revenue grew from $61.89M in 2025-Q4 to $64.67M in 2026-Q1. The company launched new quantum security products and expanded partnerships. These moves support future growth and market position.
IonQ is still loss-making with operating income worsening to -$271.51M in 2026-Q1. Key executives left recently, causing management instability. The company faces high risk and fragile quality. Growth may slow or costs may rise further.
The stock price is about 1% below our fair value near $46. Analysts expect 64% revenue growth next year. Our fair value is 27% below the Street median, reflecting cautious views on profitability and execution risks.
Breaks if: M&A deals fail or do not contribute to growth in FY26
Breaks if: Additional key executives leave within next 4 quarters
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is focused on achieving high organic revenue growth while navigating a volatile management landscape and fragile earnings quality.
The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility due to weak execution, but not to the full extent of the company's challenges. Valuation suggests that there is an expectations gap, indicating that the stock may be seen as somewhat justified compared to peers despite its premium.
Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure given the recent weak financial performance and a history of earnings misses. However, management is on track with key priorities, such as revenue growth and global expansion, which could support future performance.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to maintain guidance without cuts, the impact of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the performance of sector leaders that could influence overall tech momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. IonQ reported Q2 2026 revenue of $80.1 million. This was a 287% increase year-over-year and beat estimates by 20.63%. The company also raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $280 million to $290 million. Remaining performance obligations increased to $485 million, indicating strong future demand. There are no new threats to the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating loss worsens beyond -$271.51M over next 4 quarters
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $260 million in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, IONQ's performance will depend on its execution against ambitious growth targets and external market conditions. Not investment advice.