IonQ, Inc. (IONQ)

NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-10-23

$31.27+0.35%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge IonQ, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	169.19M
EPS	—	-0.33
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$450M–$460M	445.32M
EPS	—	-1.27
EBITDA	-$330M–-$310Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	806.25M
EPS	—	-1.333

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful M&A activity supports growth	A supporting condition in IonQ, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Completion of planned M&A deals with positive impact in FY26.	Improving	M&A deals fail or do not contribute to growth in FY26	2 acquisitions announced (SkyWater, Elisity) vs FY26 completion target IonQ announced acquisitions of SkyWater Technology and Elisity Inc. in 2026, demonstrating active M&A execution. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management team stabilizes after recent key departures	A supporting condition in IonQ, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further key executive departures in next 4 quarters.	Intact	Additional key executives leave within next 4 quarters	0 key departures vs 0 allowed News and filings show acquisitions and dilution, but no key executive departures; board changes were neutral additions. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves from -$271.51M in 2026-Q1	A primary condition in IonQ, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss narrows vs -$271.51M.	Broken	Operating loss worsens beyond -$271.51M over next 4 quarters	Operating income: $-337.243M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss narrows vs -$271.51M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026-337,243,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3a6b3cfc-fc82-42ca-97b5-2b1f7d469568. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual revenue reaches about $270 million	A primary condition in IonQ, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$270M.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $260 million in FY26	Revenue: $80.05M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$270M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202680,050,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3a6b3cfc-fc82-42ca-97b5-2b1f7d469568. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.33

$-1.85 → $-1.33 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.81B

$0.38B → $0.81B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-1.85	$380,363,152	6 / 10
2026-07-25	$-1.85	$380,363,152	6 / 10
2026-07-26	$-1.85	$386,399,467	6 / 10
2026-07-27	$-1.85	$386,399,467	6 / 10
2026-07-28	$-1.85	$386,399,467	6 / 10
2026-07-29	$-1.85	$386,399,467	6 / 10
2026-07-30	$-1.96	$386,081,333	6 / 10
2026-07-31	$-2.37	$388,378,530	7 / 13
2026-08-01	$-1.96	$386,081,333	6 / 10
2026-08-02	$-2.37	$388,378,530	7 / 13
2026-08-03	$-2.37	$388,378,530	7 / 13
2026-08-04	$-1.96	$383,716,222	6 / 10
2026-08-05	$-2.37	$388,412,450	7 / 13
2026-08-06	$-2.37	$393,451,450	7 / 13
2026-08-07	$-2.31	$399,629,266	6 / 10
2026-08-08	$-2.31	$399,629,266	6 / 10
2026-08-09	$-2.97	$392,118,110	6 / 12
2026-08-10	$-2.31	$399,629,266	6 / 10
2026-08-12	$-2.97	$407,568,560	6 / 13
2026-08-13	$-2.31	$399,629,266	6 / 10
2026-08-14	$-2.31	$399,629,266	6 / 10
2026-08-15	$-2.31	$399,629,266	6 / 10
2026-08-16	$-2.31	$399,629,266	6 / 10
2026-08-17	$-2.31	$399,629,266	6 / 10
2026-08-18	$-2.31	$399,629,266	6 / 10
2026-08-19	$-2.31	$399,629,266	6 / 10
2026-08-20	$-2.61	$391,103,852	6 / 10
2026-08-21	$-2.61	$391,103,852	6 / 10
2026-08-22	$-2.61	$391,103,852	6 / 10
2026-08-23	$-2.61	$391,103,852	6 / 10
2026-08-24	$-2.61	$391,103,852	6 / 10
2026-08-25	$-2.61	$391,103,852	6 / 10
2026-08-26	$-2.61	$391,103,852	6 / 10
2026-08-27	$-2.61	$391,103,852	6 / 10
2026-08-28	$-2.61	$391,103,852	6 / 10
2026-08-29	$-2.61	$391,103,852	6 / 10
2026-08-30	$-2.43	$387,340,215	6 / 10
2026-08-31	$-2.43	$387,340,215	6 / 10
2026-09-01	$-2.43	$387,340,215	6 / 10
2026-09-02	$-2.43	$387,340,215	6 / 10
2026-09-03	$-2.43	$387,340,215	6 / 10
2026-09-04	$-2.61	$387,340,215	6 / 10
2026-09-05	$-2.61	$387,340,215	6 / 10
2026-09-06	$-2.61	$387,340,215	6 / 10
2026-09-07	$-2.61	$387,340,215	6 / 10
2026-09-08	$-2.61	$387,340,215	6 / 10
2026-09-09	$-2.61	$387,340,215	6 / 10
2026-09-10	$-1.75	$808,582,987	6 / 10
2026-09-11	$-1.50	$774,246,991	6 / 10
2026-09-12	$-1.50	$774,246,991	5 / 9
2026-09-13	$-1.50	$774,246,991	5 / 9
2026-09-14	$-1.50	$774,246,991	5 / 9
2026-09-15	$-1.50	$774,246,991	5 / 9
2026-09-16	$-1.50	$774,246,991	5 / 9
2026-09-17	$-1.50	$774,246,991	5 / 9
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$774,246,991	4 / 9
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$774,246,991	4 / 9
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$774,246,991	4 / 9
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$774,246,991	4 / 9
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$774,246,991	4 / 9
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$774,246,991	4 / 9
2026-09-24	$-1.49	$809,145,658	5 / 9
2026-09-25	$-1.49	$809,145,658	5 / 9
2026-09-26	$-1.49	$809,145,658	5 / 10
2026-09-27	$-1.49	$809,145,658	5 / 10
2026-09-28	$-1.49	$809,145,658	5 / 10
2026-09-29	$-1.46	$812,630,131	5 / 10
2026-09-30	$-1.46	$812,630,131	5 / 10
2026-10-01	$-1.46	$813,630,131	6 / 10
2026-10-02	$-1.46	$812,630,131	6 / 10
2026-10-03	$-1.46	$813,630,131	6 / 10
2026-10-04	$-1.46	$812,630,131	6 / 10
2026-10-05	$-1.46	$812,630,131	6 / 10
2026-10-06	$-1.46	$812,630,131	6 / 10
2026-10-07	$-1.46	$812,630,131	6 / 10
2026-10-08	$-1.46	$812,630,131	6 / 10
2026-10-09	$-1.46	$812,628,977	6 / 10
2026-10-10	$-1.46	$812,628,977	6 / 10
2026-10-11	$-1.46	$812,628,977	6 / 10
2026-10-12	$-1.46	$812,628,977	6 / 10
2026-10-13	$-1.46	$812,628,977	6 / 10
2026-10-14	$-1.46	$812,630,131	6 / 10
2026-10-15	$-1.46	$812,630,131	6 / 10
2026-10-16	$-1.33	$806,249,917	5 / 10
2026-10-17	$-1.33	$806,249,917	5 / 10
2026-10-18	$-1.33	$806,249,917	6 / 10
2026-10-19	$-1.33	$806,249,917	6 / 10
2026-10-20	$-1.33	$806,249,917	6 / 10
2026-10-21	$-1.33	$806,249,917	6 / 10
2026-10-22	$-1.33	$806,249,917	6 / 10
2026-10-23	$-1.33	$806,249,917	6 / 10
2026-10-24	$-1.33	$806,248,632	6 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	3
2026-06-01	11	2
2026-07-01	11	2
2026-08-01	11	2
2026-09-01	12	2
2026-10-01	12	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Aug 6

$49.00 → $43.00-12.2%

WedbushOct 13

$75.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$41.25$82.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income improves from -$271.51M in 2026-Q1Published status: Broken
Annual revenue reaches about $270 millionRevenue: $80.05M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-57.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

IonQ, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth business with loss-making fundamentals, not a proven compounder. The multi-year view is still in a watch state, and the signal recently shifted from mixed to cautious.

What's priced into IonQ, Inc.

IONQ carries a sizable premium versus peers, and the valuation model has low confidence. The priced-in assessment calls that premium justified, with optionality as the main reason, but the expectations gap is negative and execution quality remains weak.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth is strong: second-quarter revenue rose 287% year on year, and management says it is on track toward its 2026 organic growth goal. The SkyWater acquisition closed as planned, but recent financial performance remains weak versus its industry cohort, earnings quality is fragile, and recent earnings misses add risk. The evidence on customer expansion is mixed.

What IonQ, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on sustaining strong growth, delivering commercial expansion, and integrating SkyWater effectively. A reversal of recently raised guidance would damage management credibility, while rate cuts or continued strength among technology-sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.