IDT Corp. (IDT)

NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09

$67.97-0.57%

Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change

Standing thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Compounder

Intact: The reason to own it still holds.

The bull case

IDT steadily grows earnings with adjusted EBITDA rising to $150-$152 million in FY26. Cash from operations improved to $18.48 million in Q3 2026. The company raised its dividend from $0.06 to $0.07 per share, showing strong shareholder returns. Recent earnings beats and raised guidance confirm solid execution.

The bear case

Revenue growth is expected to decline about 2% next year, signaling possible demand weakness. Profit margins could compress if costs rise or competition intensifies. Dividend growth may stall if cash flow weakens.

What's priced in

The price is about 4% below our fair value near $63. Analysts expect roughly -2% revenue growth, which is cautious versus management's raised EBITDA guidance. Our view is more optimistic on profitability and cash flow.

What has to stay true

Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $150 million in FY 2026Intact
Marginprimary>=150 million USD · FY 2026 (guidance)
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $141 million in FY 2026
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Increase Adjusted EBITDA guidanceGrowth
  IDT has increased its FY 2026 guidance for consolidated Adjusted EBITDA to $150-$152 million.
  On Track

Source: QuarterlyIQ research model· Written 2026-07-08· Health checked 2026-09-09· Version 1· Status: Intact· Reviewed when the evidence changes

This is not a price target or investment advice.

Current Outlook

Week of Sep 5, 2026

A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.

IDT's long-term thesis remains intact amid strong recent performance and stable management.

What kind of bet this is

This is a durable compounder investment. The company has shown strong recent financial performance and stable management, which supports its long-term growth potential despite some sector headwinds.

What's priced into IDT Corp. (IDT)

The current valuation reflects a neutral stance, with the market pricing in some fragility due to weak execution quality. IDT is seen as slightly stretched compared to peers, indicating that expectations are moderately high.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has consistently increased Adjusted EBITDA guidance and improved cash from operating activities, suggesting a positive trajectory in operational efficiency. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings, given the high miss rate in the industry.

What IDT Corp. (IDT) hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like VZ, TMUS, and T. If these companies continue to beat earnings and guide higher, it could provide a favorable environment for IDT. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact IDT's momentum.

What changed in the latest read

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

Short-term · Daily

No material changes since the prior snapshot.

Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. IDT increased its borrowing capacity, which improves cash from operations. The company also raised its Adjusted EBITDA guidance. There are no new threats to the thesis.

as of 2026-09-09

See upcoming information that could change the risk

Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.