HeartFlow, Inc. (HTFL)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$56.71+2.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge HeartFlow, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	66.72M
EPS	—	-0.091
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	248.62M
EPS	—	-0.414
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	308.56M
EPS	—	-0.271

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Non-GAAP gross margin near 81% in FY26	Gross margin is expected near 81%, showing cost control.	Intact	gross margin falls below 75%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP gross margin improved from 75.3% in 2025-Q1 to 83.3% in 2026-Q2. Management raised full year 2026 non-GAAP gross margin guidance from approximately 80%-81% in 2025-Q4 to approximately 82% in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering margin expansion consistent with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves from -$29.5M in 2026-Q1	The company aims to improve operating income despite recent losses.	Improving	operating loss worsens beyond -$29.5M in subsequent quarters	Operating income: $-17.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss narrows by at least 50% by FY26 end. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 13, 2026-17,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 87de32b2-7f6c-4bf8-a32f-604a0cecbf6d. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual revenue reaches $228M-$232M in FY26	A primary condition in HeartFlow, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $228M-$232M.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $173M in FY26	Revenue: $64.082M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $228M-$232M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 202664,082,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 87de32b2-7f6c-4bf8-a32f-604a0cecbf6d. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.27

$-0.26 → $-0.27 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.31B

$0.28B → $0.31B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.26	$282,828,915	5 / 7
2026-07-25	$-0.26	$282,828,915	5 / 7
2026-07-26	$-0.26	$282,828,915	5 / 7
2026-07-27	$-0.26	$282,828,915	5 / 7
2026-07-28	$-0.26	$282,828,915	5 / 7
2026-07-29	$-0.26	$282,828,915	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$-0.26	$282,779,910	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$-0.26	$282,779,910	7 / 8
2026-08-01	$-0.26	$282,828,915	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$-0.27	$283,134,360	8 / 9
2026-08-03	$-0.27	$283,134,360	8 / 9
2026-08-04	$-0.27	$283,134,360	8 / 9
2026-08-05	$-0.27	$283,177,925	5 / 7
2026-08-06	$-0.27	$283,134,360	8 / 9
2026-08-07	$-0.27	$283,177,925	5 / 7
2026-08-08	$-0.27	$283,177,925	5 / 7
2026-08-09	$-0.27	$283,134,360	8 / 9
2026-08-10	$-0.27	$283,134,360	8 / 9
2026-08-12	$-0.27	$283,177,925	5 / 7
2026-08-13	$-0.27	$283,177,925	5 / 7
2026-08-14	$-0.27	$283,177,925	5 / 7
2026-08-15	$-0.27	$283,177,925	5 / 7
2026-08-16	$-0.27	$283,177,925	5 / 7
2026-08-17	$-0.27	$283,177,925	5 / 7
2026-08-18	$-0.27	$283,177,925	5 / 7
2026-08-19	$-0.27	$283,177,925	5 / 7
2026-08-20	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-08-22	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-08-23	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-08-24	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-08-26	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$-0.26	$309,206,035	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$-0.26	$309,017,876	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$-0.26	$309,017,876	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-28	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-29	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-09-30	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-10-01	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-10-02	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-10-03	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-10-05	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$-0.26	$309,022,576	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$-0.26	$309,050,029	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$-0.26	$309,050,029	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$-0.26	$309,050,029	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$-0.26	$309,050,029	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$-0.26	$309,050,029	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$-0.26	$309,053,809	6 / 8
2026-10-14	$-0.26	$309,053,809	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$-0.26	$309,053,809	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$-0.26	$309,053,809	6 / 8
2026-10-17	$-0.26	$309,053,809	6 / 8
2026-10-18	$-0.26	$309,053,809	6 / 8
2026-10-19	$-0.26	$309,053,809	6 / 8
2026-10-20	$-0.26	$309,053,809	6 / 8
2026-10-21	$-0.26	$309,053,809	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$-0.26	$309,053,809	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$-0.27	$308,555,865	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$-0.27	$308,555,865	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	1
2026-06-01	7	1
2026-07-01	8	1
2026-08-01	8	1
2026-09-01	8	2
2026-10-01	8	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 20 · prior Aug 14

$45.00 → $64.00+42.2%

$0$35.20$70.40

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Non-GAAP gross margin near 81% in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income improves from -$29.5M in 2026-Q1Operating income: $-17.9M
Annual revenue reaches $228M-$232M in FY26Revenue: $64.082M

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

HeartFlow, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HTFL is a high-growth business still working toward profitability, rather than an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management is delivering on growth and margin goals, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into HeartFlow, Inc.

The valuation is about 10% above peers, with the evidence tagging expectations as justified and valuation confidence as low. The model shows a negative expectations gap, while some of the case appears to rest on future opportunity; the snapshot does not give enough detail to say more about what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s revenue and margin priorities are on track: it raised 2026 revenue guidance, gross margin improved, and operating losses narrowed in 2026-Q2. The business remains loss-making, and the risk snapshot flags a history of a deep miss and declining earnings surprises, though it rates the current miss risk as quiet.

What HeartFlow, Inc. hinges on

A key downside scenario is management reversing its recent guidance increase, which could weaken confidence in execution. Further weakening in jobs data could also weigh on cyclical healthcare names, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.