HeartFlow, Inc. (HTFL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$46.67-2.26%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
HeartFlow raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $228M-$232M. Gross margin is expected near 81%, showing cost control. Revenue grew from $43.4M in 2025-Q2 to $52.6M in 2026-Q1. The company aims to improve operating income despite recent losses.
Operating income worsened to -$29.5M in 2026-Q1 from -$15.1M in 2025-Q3. The company remains loss-making with negative free cash flow. Recent guidance cuts and selloff reflect market doubts about sustained growth.
The market expects about 30% revenue growth next year, roughly matching management's raised guidance. Our fair value aligns near $12.53, close to current price, leaving limited upside if execution falters.
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 75%
Improve non-GAAP gross margin to approximately 82% for full year 2026, up from prior guidance and prior year levels.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP gross margin improved from 75.3% in 2025-Q1 to 83.3% in 2026-Q2. Management raised full year 2026 non-GAAP gross margin guidance from approximately 80%-81% in 2025-Q4 to approximately 82% in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering margin expansion consistent with stated goals.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story. HTFL is currently loss-making but has shown strong revenue growth and improving margins, indicating potential for recovery over the multi-year thesis.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation with a low expectations gap. HTFL is trading at a premium compared to its peers, suggesting that investors may be cautious yet optimistic about its future.
Management is focused on increasing revenue and improving margins, with recent results showing positive trends. However, the overall financial performance remains weak, and there are risks from broader economic conditions.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet or exceed guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, any shifts in economic indicators, such as job reports, could impact HTFL's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat and raised guidance support the thesis. However, the company missed EPS expectations, raising concerns about revenue growth.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Raised non-GAAP gross margin guidance to approximately 82%”
“Non-GAAP gross margin guidance of approximately 81%”
“Non-GAAP gross margin guidance of 80% to 81%”
Breaks if: operating loss worsens beyond -$29.5M in subsequent quarters
HeartFlow aims to improve its operating income, which has been negative in recent quarters.
Breaks if: annual revenue falls below $173M in FY26
HeartFlow aims to achieve total revenue of $228 million to $232 million for fiscal year 2026.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HTFL's performance will depend on its execution against stated goals and external economic factors. Not investment advice.