HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD (HMY)

NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-10-23

$15.83-2.34%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	50.31B
EPS	—	22.963
Annual ending 2027-06-30
Revenue	—	108.47B
EPS	—	50.232
Annual ending 2028-06-30
Revenue	—	120.3B
EPS	—	62.326

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
progress on copper mine projects	A supporting condition in HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD's published investment case. The stated target is advance Eva Copper mine and MAC Copper acquisition.	Intact	copper projects face major delays or cancellations	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
earnings growth of 11% to 17%	A primary condition in HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD's published investment case. The stated target is 11% to 17% earnings growth.	Intact	earnings growth falls below 11% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
gold prices remain high	High gold prices helped profits recently.	Broken	gold prices fall significantly below recent highs	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$120.30B

Unavailable → $120.30B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$126,494,676,093	1 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$126,494,676,093	1 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$126,494,676,093	1 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$124,456,589,699	1 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$124,456,589,699	1 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$123,824,766,812	1 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$123,824,766,812	1 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$123,824,766,812	1 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$123,824,766,812	1 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$123,824,766,812	1 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$124,005,699,652	1 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$124,005,699,652	1 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$124,028,340,175	1 / 7
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$123,036,676,671	1 / 7
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$122,615,458,010	1 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$122,615,458,010	1 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$122,615,458,010	1 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$122,615,458,010	1 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$122,615,458,010	1 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$121,830,235,473	1 / 7
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$121,830,235,473	1 / 7
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$121,830,235,473	1 / 7
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$120,783,677,338	1 / 7
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$120,783,677,338	1 / 7
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$120,783,677,338	1 / 7
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$120,783,677,338	1 / 7
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$120,783,677,338	1 / 7
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$120,783,677,338	1 / 7
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$120,783,677,338	1 / 7
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$120,783,677,338	1 / 7
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$120,783,677,338	1 / 7
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$120,783,677,338	1 / 7
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$120,299,918,612	1 / 7
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$120,299,918,612	1 / 7
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$120,299,918,612	1 / 7
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$120,299,918,612	1 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	2
2026-06-01	1	2
2026-07-01	1	2
2026-08-01	1	2
2026-09-01	1	2
2026-10-01	1	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

progress on copper mine projectsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
earnings growth of 11% to 17%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
gold prices remain highPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, growth-sensitive Materials exposure, not a clearly established durable compounder or turnaround from the evidence available. The long-term thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial-performance history to assess it.

What's priced into HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD

The evidence provides no valuation or expectations data, so whether HMY is cheap or expensive versus peers, or what the market already assumes, cannot be assessed. The stock reaction to recent thesis changes has been muted, but that does not establish what is priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings risk is elevated: HMY has missed across recent quarters, and the evidence flags a 63% chance of a next-quarter miss. The Materials sector backdrop weakened by 13.7 points, from 12.9 to -0.8, adding a headwind; the evidence is too limited to establish a multi-year operating trajectory.

What HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD hinges on

The sector setup could improve if bellwethers NEM, RGLD, and CDE continue beating earnings and raising guidance, or weaken if they miss or guide lower. A material slowdown in GDP growth from 2.2% to below 2% would also weigh more heavily on HMY and other growth-sensitive Materials names.