Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD)

NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$48.50-4.19%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Goosehead Insurance, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.68 → 2.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	113.82M
EPS	—	0.598
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	426.02M
EPS	—	2.092
Organic revenue growth	12%–19%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	490.68M
EPS	—	2.617

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash flow from operations growth to support business expansion	Cash from operations improved to $22.9 million in Q1 2026, supporting growth.	Intact	Cash flow from operations falls below $22.9M run-rate	Cash from operations: $15.926M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations at least $22.9M run-rate. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 202615,926,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improvement to support profitability	Operating income rose to $15 million in Q1 2026 from $6.6 million a year earlier.	Improving	Operating income fails to sustain improvement above $15M run-rate	Operating income: $26.592M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income at least $15M in Q1 2026 equivalent run-rate. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 202626,592,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 57a03f0a-2338-463f-9787-67950c390439. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Operating income rose from $15.7 million in 2025-Q2 to $26.6 million in 2026-Q2, showing significant improvement. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased from 31% to 33% over the same period. Management's focus on profitability and expense management is reflected in these improving financial metrics, indicating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 20, 2026
Organic revenue growth between 10% and 19% in 2026	A primary condition in Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 10% to 19% YoY growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Total revenues grew from $75.6 million in 2025-Q1 to $113.4 million in 2026-Q2, a 21% increase year-over-year in the latest quarter. Core revenues also grew 10% in 2026-Q2 compared to prior year. Management consistently emphasizes revenue growth driven by policy renewals, new policies, and agent productivity, and the financials show delivering growth. Delivery assessment Oct 20, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.62

$2.75 → $2.62 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.49B

$0.49B → $0.49B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.75	$490,264,560	12 / 10
2026-07-25	$2.72	$491,697,234	8 / 7
2026-07-26	$2.71	$492,242,688	8 / 7
2026-07-27	$2.71	$492,242,688	8 / 7
2026-07-28	$2.72	$492,256,960	12 / 10
2026-07-29	$2.70	$492,922,340	13 / 11
2026-07-30	$2.70	$492,922,340	13 / 11
2026-07-31	$2.70	$492,922,340	13 / 11
2026-08-01	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-02	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-03	$2.70	$492,922,340	13 / 11
2026-08-04	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$2.70	$492,922,340	13 / 11
2026-08-06	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-07	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$2.70	$492,922,340	13 / 11
2026-08-09	$2.70	$492,922,340	13 / 11
2026-08-10	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$2.70	$492,922,340	13 / 11
2026-08-14	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-17	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-18	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-21	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-22	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-23	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-24	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-25	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-26	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-27	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-28	$2.68	$492,931,426	8 / 8
2026-08-29	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-08-30	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-04	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-05	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-06	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-07	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-08	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-09	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-10	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-11	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-12	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-13	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-14	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-15	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-16	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-17	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-18	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-19	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-20	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-21	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-22	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-23	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-24	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$2.68	$493,903,808	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$2.69	$493,919,708	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$2.68	$492,962,141	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$2.67	$493,195,474	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$2.68	$493,195,474	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$2.68	$493,195,474	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$2.68	$493,195,474	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$2.68	$493,195,474	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$2.66	$491,823,424	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$2.66	$491,823,424	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$2.66	$491,823,424	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$2.66	$491,823,424	8 / 8
2026-10-11	$2.66	$491,823,424	8 / 8
2026-10-12	$2.66	$491,823,424	8 / 8
2026-10-13	$2.64	$491,823,424	8 / 8
2026-10-14	$2.64	$491,332,841	8 / 7
2026-10-15	$2.64	$491,349,508	8 / 7
2026-10-16	$2.64	$491,349,508	8 / 7
2026-10-17	$2.64	$491,349,508	8 / 7
2026-10-18	$2.64	$491,349,508	8 / 7
2026-10-19	$2.64	$491,349,508	8 / 7
2026-10-20	$2.64	$491,349,508	8 / 7
2026-10-21	$2.64	$491,349,508	8 / 7
2026-10-22	$2.64	$491,349,508	8 / 7
2026-10-23	$2.64	$491,349,508	8 / 7
2026-10-24	$2.62	$490,682,841	8 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	6	1
2026-06-01	6	6	1
2026-07-01	6	6	1
2026-08-01	6	6	1
2026-09-01	6	6	1
2026-10-01	6	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 13

$48.00New observation · no comparable prior

Deutsche BankOct 12

$80.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerOct 6 · prior Jul 15

$72.00 → $48.00-33.3%

$0$44.00$88.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash flow from operations growth to support business expansionCash from operations: $15.926M
Operating income improvement to support profitabilityOperating income: $26.592M
Organic revenue growth between 10% and 19% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Goosehead Insurance, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented insurance business with improving operating performance, rather than a deep-value story. The thesis has improved recently, with momentum rising and the signal moving to mildly favorable, but it remains on watch because recent performance is below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Goosehead Insurance, Inc.

GSHD is expensive versus peers, with a 2.24 premium measure and a negative expectations gap, suggesting expectations may be demanding. The evidence labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, but confidence in the valuation model is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and profitability have been improving: latest-quarter total revenue grew 21% year over year, core revenue grew 10%, and adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 33% from 31% a year earlier. Operating cash flow remains positive but was lower year over year, while recent earnings surprises have been erratic and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What Goosehead Insurance, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether management can sustain growth and profitability without reversing its recently raised guidance, which would also damage credibility. A shift to rate cuts could weigh on Financials, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.