GERDAU SA (GGB)

NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-10-29

$4.66-1.69%

Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 29, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge GERDAU SA’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+9.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.00 → 3.28 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 29, 2026 to Oct 29, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	No quarterly guidance published	17.32B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	0.661
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	No annual guidance published	71.08B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	2.88
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	No annual guidance published	73.9B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	3.276

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Strengthening competitive position through acquisitions	The company is also enhancing its competitive position through strategic acquisitions.	Intact	loses significant market share to competitors	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Oct 29, 2026Last status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Profit margin stability	A supporting condition in GERDAU SA's published investment case. The stated target is >=15%.	Intact	falls below 14%	Net margin: 8.14% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 20268.135079 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth in FY26	A primary condition in GERDAU SA's published investment case. The stated target is >=71.7 billion.	Intact	falls below 70 billion in FY26	Revenue: BRL 17.871B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=71.7 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202617,870,632,000 BRL · source valueLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.28

$3.04 → $3.28 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$73.90B

$73.91B → $73.90B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-27	$3.04	$73,914,288,117	3 / 7
2026-07-28	$3.04	$73,914,288,117	3 / 7
2026-07-29	$3.00	$72,717,197,500	3 / 14
2026-07-30	$3.00	$72,717,197,500	3 / 14
2026-07-31	$3.00	$72,717,197,500	3 / 14
2026-08-01	$3.04	$73,914,288,117	3 / 7
2026-08-02	$3.00	$72,717,197,500	3 / 14
2026-08-03	$3.00	$72,717,197,500	3 / 14
2026-08-04	$3.04	$73,914,288,117	3 / 7
2026-08-05	$3.00	$72,717,197,500	3 / 14
2026-08-06	$3.04	$73,914,288,117	3 / 7
2026-08-07	$3.00	$72,969,652,916	3 / 7
2026-08-08	$3.00	$72,742,073,940	3 / 14
2026-08-09	$3.00	$72,742,073,940	3 / 14
2026-08-10	$3.00	$72,742,073,940	3 / 14
2026-08-12	$3.00	$72,969,652,916	3 / 7
2026-08-13	$3.00	$72,969,652,916	3 / 7
2026-08-14	$3.00	$72,969,652,916	3 / 7
2026-08-15	$3.00	$72,969,652,916	3 / 7
2026-08-16	$3.00	$72,969,652,916	3 / 7
2026-08-17	$3.00	$72,969,652,916	3 / 7
2026-08-18	$3.00	$72,969,652,916	3 / 7
2026-08-19	$3.00	$72,969,652,916	3 / 7
2026-08-20	$3.13	$73,811,495,857	3 / 7
2026-08-21	$3.13	$73,811,495,857	3 / 7
2026-08-22	$2.98	$73,118,026,819	3 / 7
2026-08-23	$2.98	$73,118,026,819	3 / 7
2026-08-24	$2.98	$73,118,026,819	3 / 7
2026-08-25	$2.99	$72,920,194,909	3 / 7
2026-08-26	$2.99	$72,920,194,909	3 / 7
2026-08-27	$2.99	$72,920,194,909	3 / 7
2026-08-28	$2.99	$72,920,194,909	3 / 7
2026-08-29	$2.99	$73,007,089,814	2 / 7
2026-08-30	$2.99	$73,007,089,814	2 / 7
2026-08-31	$2.99	$73,007,089,814	3 / 7
2026-09-01	$2.99	$73,007,089,814	3 / 7
2026-09-02	$2.99	$73,007,089,814	3 / 7
2026-09-03	$2.99	$73,007,089,814	3 / 7
2026-09-04	$3.03	$73,358,970,735	3 / 7
2026-09-05	$3.03	$73,358,970,735	3 / 7
2026-09-06	$3.03	$73,358,970,735	3 / 7
2026-09-07	$3.03	$73,358,970,735	3 / 7
2026-09-08	$3.03	$73,358,970,735	3 / 7
2026-09-09	$3.03	$73,358,970,735	3 / 7
2026-09-10	$2.97	$73,358,970,735	3 / 7
2026-09-11	$2.97	$73,358,970,735	3 / 7
2026-09-12	$2.97	$73,373,313,792	3 / 7
2026-09-13	$2.97	$73,349,214,634	3 / 7
2026-09-14	$2.97	$73,349,214,634	3 / 7
2026-09-15	$2.97	$73,349,214,634	3 / 7
2026-09-16	$2.97	$73,349,214,634	3 / 7
2026-09-17	$2.97	$73,349,214,634	3 / 7
2026-09-18	$2.97	$73,349,214,634	3 / 7
2026-09-19	$2.97	$73,349,214,634	3 / 7
2026-09-20	$2.97	$73,349,214,634	3 / 7
2026-09-21	$2.95	$72,724,712,333	3 / 7
2026-09-22	$2.95	$72,770,840,343	3 / 7
2026-09-23	$2.95	$72,847,720,362	3 / 7
2026-09-24	$2.95	$72,847,720,362	3 / 7
2026-09-25	$2.96	$73,101,400,766	3 / 6
2026-09-26	$2.96	$73,117,864,918	3 / 6
2026-09-27	$2.96	$73,200,658,784	3 / 6
2026-09-28	$2.98	$73,580,564,350	3 / 6
2026-09-29	$3.00	$74,035,457,504	3 / 6
2026-09-30	$3.00	$74,035,457,504	3 / 6
2026-10-01	$2.98	$73,704,755,149	3 / 6
2026-10-02	$3.00	$73,972,013,747	3 / 6
2026-10-03	$3.00	$73,956,968,919	3 / 6
2026-10-04	$3.00	$73,956,968,919	3 / 6
2026-10-05	$3.00	$73,983,652,199	3 / 6
2026-10-06	$3.00	$73,983,652,199	3 / 6
2026-10-07	$3.00	$73,983,652,199	3 / 6
2026-10-08	$3.00	$73,983,652,199	3 / 6
2026-10-09	$3.00	$73,983,652,199	3 / 6
2026-10-10	$3.00	$73,983,652,199	3 / 6
2026-10-11	$3.00	$73,983,652,199	3 / 6
2026-10-12	$2.99	$73,952,143,220	3 / 6
2026-10-13	$3.00	$74,052,104,951	3 / 6
2026-10-14	$3.00	$74,191,898,132	3 / 6
2026-10-15	$3.00	$74,156,379,903	3 / 6
2026-10-16	$3.00	$74,190,477,403	3 / 6
2026-10-17	$3.00	$74,190,477,403	3 / 6
2026-10-18	$3.10	$74,505,599,756	3 / 6
2026-10-19	$3.10	$74,505,599,756	3 / 6
2026-10-20	$3.10	$74,505,599,756	3 / 6
2026-10-21	$3.16	$74,848,588,220	3 / 6
2026-10-22	$3.18	$75,125,888,435	3 / 6
2026-10-23	$3.18	$75,097,319,286	3 / 6
2026-10-24	$3.18	$75,097,319,286	3 / 6
2026-10-25	$3.18	$75,097,319,286	3 / 6
2026-10-26	$3.18	$75,097,319,286	3 / 6
2026-10-27	$3.18	$75,097,319,286	3 / 6
2026-10-28	$3.17	$73,967,063,418	3 / 7
2026-10-29	$3.28	$73,895,809,531	3 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	2
2026-06-01	4	2
2026-07-01	5	2
2026-08-01	5	2
2026-09-01	3	2
2026-10-01	3	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 30–Oct 29 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 30, 2026–Oct 29, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Strengthening competitive position through acquisitionsQualitative condition
Profit margin stabilityNet margin: 8.14%
Revenue growth in FY26Revenue: BRL 17.871B

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

GERDAU SA outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical, growth-sensitive steel-sector thesis, where results can be affected by economic activity and industry conditions. The current thesis state is insufficient because the evidence lacks enough recent company financial history, and overall confidence is low.

What's priced into GERDAU SA

The snapshot provides no valuation or expectations evidence, so it is not possible to judge whether GGB is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers or what the market already assumes. The muted price reaction does not establish what expectations are reflected in the shares.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the evidence flags a 30% miss probability and says GGB has missed across recent quarters, while industry peers have also missed lately. The sector context has weakened, falling from 12.9 to -0.8, but the snapshot does not provide enough company results or management guidance to assess a multi-year financial trajectory.

What GERDAU SA hinges on

A favorable scenario depends on sector bellwethers NUE, STLD, and RS continuing to beat earnings and guide higher; misses or lower guidance could remove that sector support. A material slowdown in GDP growth from 2.2% to below 2% is another downside risk because Materials companies are more growth-sensitive than the average stock.