First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$50.74+0.24%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge First Mid Bancshares, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.94 → 4.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	110.53M
EPS	—	1.19
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	426.38M
EPS	—	4.473
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	453.65M
EPS	—	4.979

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage capital allocation with new credit agreements	Management is on track with capital allocation and leadership transition.	Intact	Material credit issues or capital mismanagement arise	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company increased its quarterly dividend from $0.25 to $0.26 per share and repurchased shares each quarter. Subordinated debt was reduced significantly from $60.0 million in 2026-Q1 to $34.1 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting active debt repayment. These actions demonstrate delivery on capital allocation priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net income grows to at least $26.33M in 2026-Q1	First Mid Bancshares grew net income from $22.17M to $26.33M in one year.	Intact	net income falls below $22 million in 2026-Q1	Net income: $27.789M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $26.33 million net income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 202627,789,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0d230791-b233-4ad3-9e93-3111a40b3c42. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income increased from $26.3 million in 2026-Q1 to $27.8 million in 2026-Q2, with diluted EPS stable around $1.05. Tangible book value per share rose 3.7% in 2026-Q2. Management highlights record earnings and strong financial results, indicating delivery on maintaining strong financial performance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS at least $3.83 in full year 2026	The company expects EPS of at least $3.83 in 2026.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $3.5 for 2026	Diluted EPS: $1.04 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.83 EPS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 7, 20261.04 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0d230791-b233-4ad3-9e93-3111a40b3c42. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income increased from $26.3 million in 2026-Q1 to $27.8 million in 2026-Q2, with diluted EPS stable around $1.05. Tangible book value per share rose 3.7% in 2026-Q2. Management highlights record earnings and strong financial results, indicating delivery on maintaining strong financial performance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Successful implementation of new CEO leadership	Management is on track with capital allocation and leadership transition.	Intact	Leadership disruption harms company performance	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The leadership transition was announced with Matthew K. Smith promoted to CEO and President, and Joseph R. Dively moving to Executive Chair. This priority has been stated once and no financial metrics apply, so delivery assessment is limited to the announcement. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.98

$4.88 → $4.98 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.45B

$0.34B → $0.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.88	$336,206,330	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$4.92	$354,139,670	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$4.92	$354,139,670	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-29	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-30	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-07-31	$4.94	$334,377,710	7 / 7
2026-08-01	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-02	$4.94	$334,020,570	7 / 7
2026-08-03	$4.94	$334,020,570	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$4.94	$334,020,570	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$4.94	$334,020,570	7 / 7
2026-08-06	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-07	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-08	$4.94	$334,020,570	7 / 7
2026-08-09	$4.94	$334,020,570	7 / 7
2026-08-10	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-11	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-12	$4.94	$334,020,570	7 / 7
2026-08-13	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-14	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-15	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-16	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-17	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-18	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-19	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-20	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-21	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-22	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-23	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-24	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-25	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-26	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-27	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-28	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-29	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-30	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-08-31	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-01	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-02	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-03	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-04	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-05	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-06	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-07	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-08	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-09	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-10	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-11	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-12	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-13	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-14	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-15	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-16	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-17	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-18	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-19	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-20	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-21	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-22	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-23	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-24	$4.94	$452,566,667	6 / 5
2026-09-25	$4.96	$453,050,000	6 / 5
2026-09-26	$4.96	$453,050,000	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$4.96	$453,050,000	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$4.96	$453,050,000	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$4.96	$453,050,000	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$4.96	$453,050,000	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$4.96	$453,050,000	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$4.96	$453,650,000	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$4.97	$453,650,000	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$4.97	$453,650,000	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$4.97	$453,650,000	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$4.97	$453,650,000	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$4.97	$453,650,000	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$4.97	$453,650,000	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5
2026-10-11	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5
2026-10-12	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5
2026-10-13	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5
2026-10-14	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5
2026-10-15	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5
2026-10-16	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5
2026-10-17	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5
2026-10-18	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5
2026-10-19	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5
2026-10-20	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5
2026-10-21	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5
2026-10-22	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5
2026-10-23	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5
2026-10-24	$4.98	$453,650,000	6 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	3
2026-06-01	4	3
2026-07-01	4	3
2026-08-01	4	3
2026-09-01	4	3
2026-10-01	4	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage capital allocation with new credit agreementsQualitative condition
Net income grows to at least $26.33M in 2026-Q1Net income: $27.789M
EPS at least $3.83 in full year 2026Diluted EPS: $1.04 per share
Successful implementation of new CEO leadershipQualitative condition

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

First Mid Bancshares, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FMBH is a regional financial company with a growth and acquisition-integration thesis, rather than a turnaround story. Its thesis is intact, but management is rated volatile and confidence has eased from high to medium.

What's priced into First Mid Bancshares, Inc.

Valuation is near peer levels, and the expectations gap is modest, suggesting expectations are broadly aligned with the evidence. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low signs of fragility; the evidence does not point to a clear valuation discount.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent financial performance is strong: second-quarter net income rose from the first quarter, earnings per share stayed around the same level, and tangible book value per share increased. The Two Rivers merger was completed in the second quarter, and management says integration is progressing as expected, though a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk and peer misses add some caution.

What First Mid Bancshares, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on completing the Two Rivers integration while sustaining strong results and managing capital allocation. A guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts would weigh on the setup, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support financial-sector momentum.