Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY)

NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$18.23+4.05%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Firefly Aerospace, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	138.74M
EPS	—	-0.513
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$420M–$450M	439.38M
EPS	—	-1.961
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	684.9M
EPS	—	-1.497

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful execution of NASA contract and M&A integration	The company secured a major NASA contract and expanded its manufacturing hub.	Intact	contract cancellations or failed integration of acquisition	Backlog $1.5B vs $420-450M target Q2 2026 record revenue and $1.5B backlog; new Space Force and Lockheed contracts reinforce growth trajectory. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating losses stabilize or improve	A primary condition in Firefly Aerospace, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating loss improves or stabilizes near -$95 million.	Broken	operating losses worsen beyond -$100 million next year	Operating income: $-95.197M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss improves or stabilizes near -$95 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 2026-95,197,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c6073d11-aeec-4e82-969c-00dba1b7ed21. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating losses were $85.6 million in 2025-Q4, $95.7 million in 2026-Q1, and $95.2 million in 2026-Q2, showing losses remain high with limited improvement. Management continues to focus on managing losses while scaling operations, indicating mixed progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches $420-$450 million in 2026	A primary condition in Firefly Aerospace, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$435 million.	Intact	revenue falls below $150 million in FY26	Revenue: $117.683M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$435 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 2026117,683,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c6073d11-aeec-4e82-969c-00dba1b7ed21. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $57.7 million in 2025-Q4 to $80.9 million in 2026-Q1 and $117.7 million in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently reiterated the 2026 full-year revenue guidance of $420 million to $450 million, showing delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.50

$-1.28 → $-1.50 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.68B

$0.70B → $0.68B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-1.28	$704,935,897	5 / 7
2026-07-25	$-1.28	$704,935,897	5 / 7
2026-07-26	$-1.28	$704,935,897	5 / 7
2026-07-27	$-1.28	$704,923,397	5 / 7
2026-07-28	$-1.28	$704,923,397	5 / 7
2026-07-29	$-1.28	$704,923,397	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$-1.51	$695,525,510	5 / 9
2026-07-31	$-1.51	$695,525,510	5 / 9
2026-08-01	$-1.28	$695,598,575	6 / 8
2026-08-02	$-1.51	$695,525,510	5 / 9
2026-08-03	$-1.51	$695,525,510	5 / 9
2026-08-04	$-1.51	$695,525,510	5 / 9
2026-08-05	$-1.51	$695,525,510	5 / 9
2026-08-06	$-1.51	$695,525,510	5 / 9
2026-08-07	$-1.28	$695,598,575	6 / 8
2026-08-08	$-1.51	$695,525,510	5 / 9
2026-08-09	$-1.51	$695,525,510	5 / 9
2026-08-10	$-1.51	$695,525,510	5 / 9
2026-08-11	$-1.28	$695,598,575	6 / 8
2026-08-12	$-1.51	$695,525,510	5 / 9
2026-08-13	$-1.28	$695,598,575	6 / 8
2026-08-14	$-1.28	$695,598,575	6 / 8
2026-08-15	$-1.28	$695,598,575	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$-1.28	$695,598,575	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$-1.28	$695,598,575	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$-1.28	$695,598,575	6 / 8
2026-08-19	$-1.28	$695,598,575	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$-1.44	$684,898,959	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$-1.44	$684,898,959	6 / 8
2026-08-22	$-1.44	$684,895,839	6 / 8
2026-08-23	$-1.44	$684,895,839	6 / 8
2026-08-24	$-1.44	$684,895,839	6 / 8
2026-08-25	$-1.44	$684,895,839	6 / 8
2026-08-26	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$-1.44	$684,900,139	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$-1.44	$684,898,139	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$-1.44	$684,898,139	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$-1.44	$684,898,139	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$-1.48	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$-1.48	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$-1.48	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$-1.48	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$-1.48	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-28	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-29	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-09-30	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-10-01	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-10-02	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-10-03	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-10-05	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$-1.50	$684,898,089	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-14	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-17	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-18	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-19	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-20	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-21	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$-1.50	$684,900,089	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	3
2026-06-01	7	3
2026-07-01	7	3
2026-08-01	7	3
2026-09-01	7	3
2026-10-01	7	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating losses stabilize or improvePublished status: Broken
Revenue reaches $420-$450 million in 2026Revenue: $117.683M

Next proof point

Nov 10, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-72.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on growth through acquisitions. The current thesis state indicates a watchful approach due to recent weak financial performance and high operating losses.

What's priced into Firefly Aerospace, Inc.

The market seems to have priced in a low level of fragility, suggesting that expectations are not overly pessimistic. However, FLY's valuation shows a premium compared to peers, indicating that some growth potential is already anticipated.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on increasing revenue and managing operating losses, but recent financial results have been weak. The trajectory of revenue growth is on track, yet high operating losses remain a concern.

What Firefly Aerospace, Inc. hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, FLY may benefit from positive sector momentum; conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could adversely affect FLY.