Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-15
$16.75-6.06%
Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-15
Research Workspace
Put FLY beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Aerospace & Defense is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Operating losses stabilize or improve: Operating income: $-95.2M.
View ThesisRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 14%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 4% on a typical day and fell roughly 71% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskFLY’s sales growth supports the case for rapid expansion, though operating losses weaken it. Revenue grew 659% year over year, while Q2 FY2026 earnings missed expectations. FLY trades at 10× sales versus a 3× peer median, below its 14× historical multiple. The price is roughly in line with forecast growth. A 21% next-quarter miss probability adds risk. Operating income of $-95.2M breaks the thesis’s improving-losses pillar. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% above where it trades. The thesis has broken, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-16. FLY is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 11 analysts currently covering FLY (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 3 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for FLY in the last 4 months.
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Compare FLY with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLY Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Aerospace & Defense — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put FLY next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase revenue to $420-$450M in 2026
Record Q2 sales support revenue growth objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-16. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $16.75
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $16.75.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Increase revenue to $420-$450M in 2026
Major contract boosts revenue potential significantly.
Advances: Increase revenue to $420-$450M in 2026
Revenue outlook aligns with management's growth objective.
Advances: Increase revenue to $420-$450M in 2026
Earnings call confirms strong revenue performance.
Advances: Increase revenue to $420-$450M in 2026
Record revenue and backlog support growth targets.
Advances: Increase revenue to $420-$450M in 2026
Record revenue supports growth objective for 2026.
New contract enhances growth prospects and revenue potential.
Advances: Expand through M&A activity
Acquisition aligns with growth expansion objective.