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Track FLY free→Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$28.00-3.11%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that Firefly Aerospace's growth will continue through strategic acquisitions and contracts. The company aims to increase revenue to $420-$450 million in 2026. It recently announced a strategic acquisition of Space-ng, which supports this goal. Firefly trades at a valuation that suggests it is about 8% below peer multiples. If the company cuts guidance on the next call, it could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Market cap
- $4.75B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-07-11
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.00. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$30.35
Range $13.92 – $33.64
vs price: -8% below
Method agreement : low · 2 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for FLY right now, so treat our $44 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts target $33–$60. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-35%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$43.50
range $43.50 – $43.50
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
(median $43.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 35% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
24.2xP/S · peer median 3.5x
Looks more expensive than peers.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2491).
22nd pctl · Industrials
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -3.2% / 30d, n=4for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.50 → $-0.51 (-3.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 56.9% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): mixed.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$371.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,194.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,220.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mixed'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Firefly Aerospace announced a strategic acquisition of Space-ng. This acquisition supports their goal to expand through mergers and acquisitions. They also secured significant contracts with NASA, boosting their revenue growth potential.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 17d
Watch for operating losses not improving in Q2
Why it matters: High losses may show bad cost management. This can hurt investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Operating losses reported worse than -$95.7M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating losses improve to less than -$95.7M in Q2.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-07-052d agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Expand through M&A activity
Acquisition aligns with growth expansion objective.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in Industrials.
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC meetings
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting FLY and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If FLY raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If FLY cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping FLY and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits FLY and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-021mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 28, 2026, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (the “Company”) priced the previously announced offering (the “Offering”) of its common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), at a public offering price of $48.00 per share (the “Offering Price”), pursuant to the Company’s registration statement on Form S-1 (File No. 333-296233) (the “Registration Statement”). On May 28, 2026, in connection with the pricing of the Offering, the Company enter…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.