Figma Inc (FIG)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$24.64+2.24%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Figma Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.36 → 0.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	390.6M
EPS	—	0.053
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.47B
EPS	—	0.286
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.82B
EPS	—	0.358

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Leadership confidence remains stable	A supporting condition in Figma Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No significant insider selling or leadership departures.	Under Pressure	Major insider selling or key leadership departures increase	CEO sold $4.36m; CAO sold $15.9k; 1 board departure CEO sold $4.36m shares; CAO sold $15.9k; Mike Krieger resigned from board. No major executive departures. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Non-GAAP operating income of $125M to $135M in 2026	It aims for $125 million to $135 million in operating income.	Intact	Operating income falls below $100 million in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Non-GAAP operating income was $52.1 million in 2026-Q1 and $36.1 million in 2026-Q2, with guidance for full year 2026 set between $125 million and $135 million. Despite quarterly fluctuations, management maintains the target operating income range, indicating ongoing focus and delivery toward this goal. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
2026 revenue reaches about $1.425 billion	Figma raised its 2026 revenue guidance to about $1.425 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.37 billion in 2026	Revenue: $370.083M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.425 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026370,083,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ae30c257-2654-4b9a-843a-fdda5f3797d1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $333.4 million in 2026-Q1 to $370.1 million in 2026-Q2, a 48% year-over-year increase. Management raised full year 2026 revenue guidance from approximately $1.422 billion to $1.465 billion, reflecting sustained seat expansion and AI adoption. The trajectory is delivering with accelerating revenue growth and raised guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain seat expansion and AI adoption	A supporting condition in Figma Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain seat growth and AI adoption.	Improving	Seat growth and AI adoption stall or decline	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net Dollar Retention Rate was 139% in 2026-Q1 and 136% in 2026-Q2, with Paid Customers over $10,000 ARR increasing from 15,218 to 15,964. Management highlights sustained seat expansion and AI credit adoption as key growth drivers, showing delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.36

$0.34 → $0.36 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.82B

$1.76B → $1.82B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.34	$1,761,060,057	7 / 10
2026-07-25	$0.33	$1,759,249,530	12 / 14
2026-07-26	$0.34	$1,761,060,057	7 / 11
2026-07-27	$0.34	$1,761,060,057	7 / 11
2026-07-28	$0.33	$1,759,246,740	12 / 14
2026-07-29	$0.34	$1,761,060,057	7 / 11
2026-07-30	$0.33	$1,759,246,740	12 / 14
2026-07-31	$0.33	$1,759,246,740	12 / 14
2026-08-01	$0.34	$1,761,060,057	7 / 11
2026-08-02	$0.33	$1,759,246,740	12 / 14
2026-08-03	$0.33	$1,759,246,740	12 / 14
2026-08-04	$0.33	$1,759,246,740	12 / 14
2026-08-05	$0.33	$1,759,246,740	12 / 14
2026-08-06	$0.33	$1,759,246,740	12 / 14
2026-08-07	$0.36	$1,819,536,931	7 / 11
2026-08-08	$0.34	$1,791,732,800	11 / 14
2026-08-09	$0.34	$1,791,732,800	11 / 14
2026-08-10	$0.34	$1,791,732,800	11 / 14
2026-08-11	$0.36	$1,818,699,520	11 / 14
2026-08-12	$0.36	$1,818,699,520	11 / 14
2026-08-13	$0.36	$1,819,536,931	7 / 11
2026-08-14	$0.36	$1,819,536,931	7 / 11
2026-08-15	$0.36	$1,819,536,931	7 / 11
2026-08-16	$0.36	$1,819,536,931	7 / 11
2026-08-17	$0.36	$1,819,536,931	7 / 11
2026-08-18	$0.36	$1,819,536,931	7 / 11
2026-08-19	$0.36	$1,819,536,931	7 / 11
2026-08-20	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-08-21	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-08-22	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-08-23	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-08-24	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-08-25	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-08-26	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-08-27	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-08-28	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-08-29	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-08-30	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-08-31	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-09-01	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-09-02	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-09-03	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-09-04	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-09-05	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-09-06	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-09-07	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-09-08	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-09-09	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-09-10	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	7 / 11
2026-09-11	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	8 / 11
2026-09-12	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	8 / 11
2026-09-13	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	8 / 11
2026-09-14	$0.36	$1,818,943,191	8 / 11
2026-09-15	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 11
2026-09-16	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-09-17	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-09-18	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-09-19	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-09-20	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-09-21	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-09-22	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-09-23	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-09-24	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-09-25	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-09-26	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-09-27	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-09-28	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-09-29	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-09-30	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-10-01	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-10-02	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-10-03	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-10-04	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-10-05	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-10-06	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-10-07	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-10-08	$0.36	$1,818,597,249	8 / 12
2026-10-09	$0.36	$1,822,715,316	8 / 12
2026-10-10	$0.36	$1,822,715,316	8 / 12
2026-10-11	$0.36	$1,822,715,316	9 / 12
2026-10-12	$0.36	$1,822,715,316	9 / 12
2026-10-13	$0.36	$1,822,713,938	9 / 12
2026-10-14	$0.36	$1,822,713,938	9 / 12
2026-10-15	$0.36	$1,822,713,938	9 / 12
2026-10-16	$0.36	$1,822,713,938	9 / 12
2026-10-17	$0.36	$1,822,713,938	9 / 12
2026-10-18	$0.36	$1,822,711,223	9 / 12
2026-10-19	$0.36	$1,822,711,223	9 / 12
2026-10-20	$0.36	$1,822,711,223	9 / 12
2026-10-21	$0.36	$1,822,711,223	9 / 12
2026-10-22	$0.36	$1,822,711,223	9 / 12
2026-10-23	$0.36	$1,822,711,223	9 / 12
2026-10-24	$0.36	$1,822,711,081	9 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	9
2026-06-01	4	9
2026-07-01	6	9
2026-08-01	6	9
2026-09-01	6	9
2026-10-01	6	9

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 14 · prior May 15

$25.00 → $22.00-12.0%

Wells FargoOct 12 · prior Jun 26

$36.00 → $30.00-16.7%

$0$19.80$39.60

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Leadership confidence remains stablePublished status: Under Pressure
Non-GAAP operating income of $125M to $135M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
2026 revenue reaches about $1.425 billionRevenue: $370.083M
Sustain seat expansion and AI adoptionQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-68.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Figma Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FIG is a growth business with a durable-premium valuation, meaning it trades at a sizable premium to peers based on expectations of lasting growth. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: revenue guidance has risen, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort and risk is high.

What's priced into Figma Inc

The valuation model indicates FIG is expensive versus peers, with a 2.55 premium measure and an expectations gap of 0.48; confidence in that model is low. The snapshot labels the premium unjustified, while fragility is low because expensive valuation is the main concern rather than a combination of weak fundamentals and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and higher 2026 guidance support the business, but quarterly operating income has fluctuated and recent performance is below the industry cohort. Customer expansion and AI adoption remain growth drivers, though retention eased from 139% to 136%; the risk label also rose to high.

What Figma Inc hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the main test is whether FIG can sustain revenue growth and meet its 2026 operating income range without reversing its recent guidance increase. Fed rate cuts and continued strong results from major software peers could support the sector backdrop, while a guidance cut would damage management credibility.