Figma Inc (FIG)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$22.01-3.25%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Figma raised its 2026 revenue guidance to about $1.425 billion. It aims for $125 million to $135 million in operating income. The company is growing by adding more users and using AI. These show progress in fixing the business.
Figma is losing money and faces strong competition from Adobe. Leadership is weak with recent insider selling. The stock is down 18% from its high. These risks could hurt growth and profits.
The stock price is about 44% above our fair value near $15. Analysts expect 32% revenue growth. Our fair value is 47% below the Street median of $29. We see the stock as stretched versus fundamentals.
Breaks if: Major insider selling or key leadership departures increase
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $100 million in 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state indicates that FIG is navigating through a challenging environment with mixed signals from its recent performance and management execution.
The market seems to price in a durable premium for FIG, suggesting that investors expect strong future performance despite current losses. However, the expectations gap indicates that there may be a disconnect between what the market anticipates and the company's actual performance.
Management has shown a commitment to increasing revenue guidance and sustaining growth through seat expansion and AI adoption. However, the mixed results in achieving non-GAAP operating income targets and the recent decline in management quality suggest potential challenges ahead.
The long-term thesis hinges on FIG's ability to maintain its revenue growth trajectory and manage operational challenges. Key factors include the potential for favorable macroeconomic conditions, such as Fed rate cuts, and the performance of sector leaders that could influence FIG's market position.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Target non-GAAP operating income between $125 million and $135 million for full year 2026 with a 9% operating margin.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Non-GAAP operating income was $52.1 million in 2026-Q1 and $36.1 million in 2026-Q2, with guidance for full year 2026 set between $125 million and $135 million. Despite quarterly fluctuations, management maintains the target operating income range, indicating ongoing focus and delivery toward this goal.
“Non-GAAP operating income between $125.0 million and $135.0 million, representing a non-GAAP operating margin of 9%.”
“Non-GAAP operating income between $125.0 million and $135.0 million, representing a non-GAAP operating margin of 9%.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.37 billion in 2026
Raise full year 2026 revenue guidance reflecting sustained seat expansion and AI adoption driving growth.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $333.4 million in 2026-Q1 to $370.1 million in 2026-Q2, a 48% year-over-year increase. Management raised full year 2026 revenue guidance from approximately $1.422 billion to $1.465 billion, reflecting sustained seat expansion and AI adoption. The trajectory is delivering with accelerating revenue growth and raised guidance.
“Figma raises full year revenue guidance, reflecting sustained seat expansion and AI adoption.”
“Figma raises full year revenue and non-GAAP operating income guidance, reflecting sustained seat expansion and AI adoption.”
Breaks if: Seat growth and AI adoption stall or decline
Drive growth through expanding paid seats and increasing adoption of AI-powered features and credits.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net Dollar Retention Rate was 139% in 2026-Q1 and 136% in 2026-Q2, with Paid Customers over $10,000 ARR increasing from 15,218 to 15,964. Management highlights sustained seat expansion and AI credit adoption as key growth drivers, showing delivery on this priority.
“Net Dollar Retention Rate was 136% as of June 30, 2026, with customers expanding seats and AI credit add-ons.”
“Q1 outperformance fueled by stronger than expected seat expansion and adoption of AI products including Figma Make and MCP.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, FIG's performance will depend on its execution of growth strategies and external market conditions. Not investment advice.