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Track FIG free→Figma Inc (FIG)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$21.08-1.22%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that expansion trends will boost revenue growth for Figma, Inc. Revenue guidance for 2026 was recently raised, supporting this claim. The stock trades at a high valuation compared to peers, implying it looks expensive. If the CEO's recent share sale affects leadership confidence, that could be a risk. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $11.28B
- Employees
- 1,886
- IPO date
- 2025-07-01
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-14
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.08. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$15.35
Range $8.23 – $23.98
vs price: +37% above
Method agreement : medium · 6 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$37.70consensus
Range $25.74 – $49.66
vs price: -44% below
Method agreement : medium · 2 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$49.74consensus
Range $33.98 – $65.49
vs price: -58% below
Method agreement : medium · 2 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
low confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for FIG right now, so treat our $15 fair value as low-confidence (our number sits well below the analyst range). Analysts target $22–$38. Note: our $15 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($22–$38). Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
27%
our forecast 32%
Our fair value
$15.36
range $8.46 – $13.92
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price sits about 27% above a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 32% growth — in line with our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stable1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2543).
95th pctl · Information Technology
Not investment advice. As of 2026-07-06.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +6.9% / 30d, n=12for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.06 → $0.07 (+6.9% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 31% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 70.4% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$364.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$931.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,620.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'low' to 'medium'.
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mild_favorable'.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. On one hand, there is an increase in revenue guidance for 2026, which supports a positive outlook. On the other hand, concerns about leadership have arisen due to the CEO selling $4.36 million in shares, which may undermine confidence in the company's direction.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 24d
Watch for FOMC decision on June 17
Why it matters: The FOMC decision could impact market conditions and investor sentiment. This may affect Figma's stock.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. They also signal a tighter policy.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates the same. They signal a looser policy.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-031mo agoInvesting.com
CEO selling shares raises concerns about leadership confidence.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would be a tailwind for FIG and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting FIG and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If FIG reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-14), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping FIG and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits FIG and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-141mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, Figma, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amen…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.