Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
DRAFTKINGS INC (DKNG)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-23
$20.91-0.14%
Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-23
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.87 → 0.85 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|---|---|
| FY 2026 · Q4 | ||
| Revenue | — | 2.19B |
| EPS | — | 0.457 |
| FY 2026 · Annual | ||
| Revenue | $6.5B–$6.9B | 6.67B |
| EPS | — | -0.138 |
| EBITDA | $700M–$900Mnon-GAAP | — |
| FY 2027 · Annual | ||
| Revenue | — | |
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $700M to $900M | Adjusted EBITDA target is $700M to $900M. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $500M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA was $167.9M in 2026-Q1 and declined to $114.6M in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently maintained the fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $700 million to $900 million. The trajectory shows a decline in quarterly Adjusted EBITDA but stable guidance commitment. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not a proven durable compounder, because the evidence describes it as loss-making and recent performance as weak. The long-term thesis is still active, but the current state is watch after momentum declined and results lagged the industry cohort.
DKNG trades at a substantial premium to peers, reflecting expectations that its growth can persist. The pricing signal is labeled justified, with no fragility gates triggered, but the expectations gap is negative and model confidence is low, so the premium may be difficult to support if execution remains weak.
Near term, customer engagement is improving: monthly unique payers rose about 9% to 3.6 million in 2026-Q2. However, quarterly revenue and adjusted EBITDA declined from Q1 to Q2, and the company recently missed earnings; management has maintained its FY 2026 guidance for both measures. The next call matters because a guidance cut would add to execution concerns.
The multi-year thesis depends on customer growth translating into stronger financial results and management delivering its FY 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA ranges. In the near term, reaffirmed guidance would support the current plan, while a cut would be a meaningful negative. Sector bellwethers’ earnings and guidance are another swing factor for the broader sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, DKNG’s growth case rests on converting customer engagement into better financial performance, while its peer premium leaves limited room for continued execution weakness. The evidence supports a watch state, with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
7.59B |
| EPS | — | 0.846 |
|---|
Growth in prediction markets and super app usage | Growth in prediction markets and super app pivot support revenue goals. | Improving | Prediction market volume and app engagement decline materially over next 4 quarters | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve FY 2026 revenue of $6.5B to $6.9B | A primary condition in DRAFTKINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.5B revenue. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $6.0B in FY26 | Revenue: $1.443B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.5B revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20261,443,235,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b6ebbea0-1dd0-4c78-83a5-5213a1a03930. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $1.646B in 2026-Q1 and $1.443B in 2026-Q2, showing a slight decline quarter-over-quarter. Management has maintained the fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance range of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion across these quarters, indicating consistent commitment. The trajectory shows stable guidance despite quarterly revenue fluctuations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.90 → $0.85 · observed estimates
$7.60B → $7.59B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.90 | $7,599,697,467 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.70 | $7,611,497,550 | 16 / 31 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.89 | $7,579,626,351 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.70 | $7,611,497,550 | 16 / 31 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.70 | $7,611,497,550 | 16 / 31 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.70 | $7,611,497,550 | 16 / 31 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.70 | $7,611,497,550 | 16 / 31 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.69 | $7,611,847,460 | 16 / 30 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.89 | $7,598,138,193 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.89 | $7,598,138,193 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.89 | $7,598,138,193 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.92 | $7,598,069,858 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.68 | $7,608,170,000 | 16 / 31 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.68 | $7,608,170,000 | 16 / 31 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.91 | $7,594,883,877 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.67 | $7,596,185,660 | 16 / 30 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.67 | $7,596,185,660 | 16 / 30 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.91 | $7,594,883,877 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.91 | $7,594,883,877 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.63 | $7,572,365,450 | 16 / 31 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.91 | $7,594,883,877 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.91 | $7,594,883,877 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.91 | $7,594,883,877 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.91 | $7,594,883,877 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.91 | $7,594,883,877 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.91 | $7,594,883,877 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.91 | $7,594,883,877 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.86 | $7,568,504,342 | 14 / 22 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.86 | $7,568,503,936 | 14 / 22 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.86 | $7,568,503,936 | 14 / 22 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.86 | $7,559,322,805 | 14 / 22 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.86 | $7,559,321,999 | 14 / 22 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.86 | $7,562,291,695 | 14 / 22 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.86 | $7,562,394,683 | 14 / 22 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.86 | $7,562,394,683 | 14 / 22 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.86 | $7,562,394,683 | 14 / 22 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.86 | $7,562,394,683 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.86 | $7,562,394,683 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.86 | $7,562,394,683 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.86 | $7,562,394,683 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.86 | $7,562,409,514 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.86 | $7,565,359,234 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.86 | $7,565,359,234 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.86 | $7,565,359,234 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.86 | $7,565,359,234 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.86 | $7,565,359,234 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.86 | $7,565,359,234 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.86 | $7,565,653,352 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.86 | $7,565,652,890 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.86 | $7,565,652,890 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.86 | $7,565,652,890 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.86 | $7,566,790,212 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.86 | $7,566,790,212 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.86 | $7,566,790,212 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.86 | $7,566,789,622 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.86 | $7,566,789,622 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.86 | $7,566,789,622 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.87 | $7,564,396,344 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.87 | $7,564,396,344 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.87 | $7,564,396,344 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.87 | $7,564,396,344 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.87 | $7,564,396,344 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.87 | $7,564,396,344 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.87 | $7,569,911,550 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.87 | $7,572,117,432 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.87 | $7,572,117,432 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.87 | $7,572,117,432 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.87 | $7,572,117,432 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.87 | $7,572,117,432 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.87 | $7,574,823,314 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.86 | $7,585,624,817 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.86 | $7,585,624,817 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.86 | $7,585,624,817 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.86 | $7,585,624,817 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.87 | $7,597,873,826 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.87 | $7,597,873,826 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.86 | $7,596,361,856 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.86 | $7,586,597,150 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.86 | $7,586,597,150 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.86 | $7,586,597,150 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.86 | $7,586,597,150 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.86 | $7,586,597,150 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.86 | $7,585,861,856 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.86 | $7,585,861,856 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.86 | $7,583,526,562 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.86 | $7,583,526,562 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.86 | $7,583,526,562 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.86 | $7,583,526,562 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.85 | $7,576,501,770 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.85 | $7,578,969,708 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.85 | $7,591,868,605 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.85 | $7,591,868,605 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.85 | $7,590,192,134 | 13 / 23 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 31 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 11 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.