CoreCivic (CXW)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$34.37-1.94%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
CoreCivic grows revenue by opening and buying new facilities. Revenue from ICE grew 96% year over year. Profit rose from $36M to $52M in one quarter. The company buys back shares to boost earnings per share.
High commissary prices caused a boycott that may hurt profits. The company lowered 2025 earnings guidance. Share repurchases and debt management are uneven. These could slow earnings growth.
The price is about 1% above our fair value near $30. Analysts expect about 10% revenue growth. We see risks in profit margins and share buybacks.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.99 in FY25
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $36.27M in 2025-Q4
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $353.7M in FY25
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
CXW represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and margin enhancement. The current thesis state is stable, backed by recent financial performance that ranks in the top half of its industry.
Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. The market does not seem to fully reflect the potential for continued revenue growth and margin improvements.
Fundamentals are likely to continue improving, as management is on track with priorities like increasing revenue and enhancing operating income. Recent financial results show strong growth in revenue, operating income, and net income.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain momentum in revenue growth and margin expansion. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers could influence CXW's trajectory, especially if they continue to beat earnings and guide higher.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. CoreCivic reported higher revenue and earnings than expected. The company announced a $500 million share repurchase program. However, legal issues could impact its operations and reputation. Confidence in the read changed from high to medium.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Shares repurchased fall below 25.7M by 2026-Q1
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CXW's performance will depend on execution of management priorities and external sector conditions. Not investment advice.