Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$14.53-0.55%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Carlsmed, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	22.42M
EPS	—	-0.366
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$74M–$78M	76.74M
EPS	—	-1.454
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	108.13M
EPS	—	-1.404

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve cash from operations from -$13 million in 2026-Q1	A supporting condition in Carlsmed, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is cash flow less negative than -$13 million.	Improving	cash flow worsens beyond -$13 million	Cash from operations: $-7.358M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: cash flow less negative than -$13 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-7,358,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operations was negative $13.0 million in 2026-Q1 and cash and equivalents decreased from $97.1 million in 2026-Q1 to $89.3 million in 2026-Q2. Management emphasizes disciplined financial management, but cash flow remains negative, indicating limited progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Reduce operating losses from -$9.3 million in 2026-Q1	A primary condition in Carlsmed, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating loss less negative than -$9.3 million.	Improving	operating loss worsens beyond -$9.3 million	Operating income: $-11.036M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss less negative than -$9.3 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-11,036,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a694e7e9-273f-4004-ae28-c4e29b4be9fb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income declined from -$9.3 million in 2025-Q4 to -$11.0 million in 2026-Q2, while gross margin improved from 73.4% in 2025-Q2 to 76.8% in 2026-Q2. Management highlights progress on path to profitability and margin expansion, but operating losses have increased, indicating mixed delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow revenue to at least $72 million in 2026	A primary condition in Carlsmed, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $72 million.	Intact	revenue falls below $72 million in FY26	Revenue: $18.94M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $72 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202618,940,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a694e7e9-273f-4004-ae28-c4e29b4be9fb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $15.2 million in 2025-Q4 to $18.9 million in 2026-Q2, a 57% year-over-year increase. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance twice, most recently to $74–$78 million, reflecting over 50% growth versus 2025. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth and upward guidance revisions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$104,950,580	2 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$104,950,580	2 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$104,950,580	2 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$104,950,580	2 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$104,950,580	2 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$104,950,580	2 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$104,950,580	2 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$104,950,580	2 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$104,950,580	2 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$107,745,860	2 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	0	0
2026-06-01	5	0	0
2026-07-01	6	0	0
2026-08-01	5	0	0
2026-09-01	5	0	0
2026-10-01	5	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve cash from operations from -$13 million in 2026-Q1Cash from operations: $-7.358M
Reduce operating losses from -$9.3 million in 2026-Q1Operating income: $-11.036M
Grow revenue to at least $72 million in 2026Revenue: $18.94M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Carlsmed, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CARL is a speculative growth business, not yet a profitable one. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: revenue growth and guidance have strengthened, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into Carlsmed, Inc.

The valuation model suggests CARL is expensive versus peers, with optionality helping explain the premium. Expectations appear demanding, and the model has low confidence, so the valuation read is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and two guidance increases support momentum, while the latest guidance calls for more than 50% growth in 2026. Gross margin has improved, but operating losses have widened and cash from operations remains negative; recent CFO and COO transitions add execution uncertainty.

What Carlsmed, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on turning revenue growth and better gross margins into improved operating results and cash generation. A guidance cut after recent increases would damage credibility, while a weakening jobs trend could weigh on cyclical healthcare names; continued strength from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.