Reading CARL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CARL free→Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)
NASDAQHealth CareHealth Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$12.29+8.38%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that CARL's growth potential is tied to its recent earnings beat. Revenue growth has been weak, but the last quarter showed a significant beat of 33%. It trades at a multiple above its peers, which suggests it looks cheap on this basis. The risk is that if CARL cuts guidance, it could hurt credibility and lead to a drop. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Health Information Services
- Market cap
- $308.28M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-06-26
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-27
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.29. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$12.78
Range $8.15 – $17.40
vs price: -4% below
Method agreement : high · 2 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$28.37consensus
Range $18.29 – $38.45
vs price: -57% below
Method agreement : medium · 2 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$37.18consensus
Range $24.02 – $50.33
vs price: -67% below
Method agreement : medium · 2 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
Trading -4% versus the 12-month peer-multiple consensus (looks cheap on this basis).
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Compared to peers
5.8xP/S · peer median 1.7x
Looks more expensive than peers.
Compared to its own history
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E
—
EV/EBITDA
—
FCF yield
-10.7%
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 30% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=9274).
20th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 1.04x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=3552).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral2 analysts, 100% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.39 → $-0.40 (-2.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 63.8% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$260.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$754.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,803.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'low' to 'medium'.
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mild_favorable'.
No, our read on the company is unchanged. There are no new strengths or weaknesses. The confidence level changed from low to medium. The signal changed from none to mild favorable.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 3d
Watch for next earnings report on August 27, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings reports provide key updates on financial performance. This can impact stock sentiment.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 15% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CARL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth to re-accelerate above 10%
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VEEV, BTSG, and TEM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting CARL and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CARL beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +33% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would be a tailwind for CARL and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If CARL reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-05), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like VEEV, BTSG, and TEM start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping CARL and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-052mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Carlsmed, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deeme…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.