CARIS LIFE SCIENCES INC (CAI)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$32.00+0.91%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CARIS LIFE SCIENCES INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.35 → 0.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	294.81M
EPS	—	0.101
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.03B–$1.04B	1.03B
EPS	—	0.12
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.23B
EPS	—	0.351

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Clinical therapy selection volume growth of 20% in 2026	Clinical therapy volume should grow about 20% this year.	Intact	clinical therapy volume growth falls below 15% in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management consistently reaffirms guidance for approximately 20% clinical therapy selection volume growth in 2026 versus 2025. Reported clinical cases increased approximately 18% in 2026-Q2 year-over-year, indicating progress toward this volume growth target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve profitability from loss-making status	A supporting condition in CARIS LIFE SCIENCES INC's published investment case. The stated target is positive EPS by end of 2027.	Improving	EPS remains negative through 2027	Diluted EPS: $0.00 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: positive EPS by end of 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d8695cc9-71a8-4e65-a160-271d8463499c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve $1.0B to $1.02B revenue in 2026	A primary condition in CARIS LIFE SCIENCES INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.0B revenue.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $1.0B in 2026	Revenue: $263.712M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.0B revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026263,712,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d8695cc9-71a8-4e65-a160-271d8463499c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.35

$0.36 → $0.35 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.23B

$1.20B → $1.23B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.36	$1,198,244,300	10 / 13
2026-07-25	$0.36	$1,198,244,300	10 / 13
2026-07-26	$0.36	$1,198,244,300	10 / 13
2026-07-27	$0.36	$1,198,244,300	10 / 13
2026-07-28	$0.36	$1,198,244,300	10 / 13
2026-07-29	$0.36	$1,198,244,300	10 / 13
2026-07-30	$0.36	$1,198,244,300	10 / 13
2026-07-31	$0.35	$1,197,076,592	8 / 9
2026-08-01	$0.35	$1,197,076,592	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$0.36	$1,198,244,300	10 / 13
2026-08-03	$0.36	$1,198,244,300	10 / 13
2026-08-04	$0.36	$1,198,244,300	10 / 13
2026-08-05	$0.36	$1,198,244,300	10 / 13
2026-08-06	$0.36	$1,198,244,300	10 / 13
2026-08-07	$0.35	$1,207,588,663	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$0.35	$1,207,588,663	8 / 9
2026-08-09	$0.37	$1,208,738,540	10 / 13
2026-08-10	$0.35	$1,207,588,663	8 / 9
2026-08-11	$0.35	$1,207,588,663	8 / 9
2026-08-12	$0.35	$1,207,588,663	8 / 9
2026-08-13	$0.38	$1,215,790,080	10 / 13
2026-08-14	$0.35	$1,207,588,663	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$0.35	$1,207,588,663	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$0.35	$1,207,588,663	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$0.35	$1,207,588,663	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$0.35	$1,207,588,663	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$0.35	$1,207,588,663	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$0.35	$1,215,794,049	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-17	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-18	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-19	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-20	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-21	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-22	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-23	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-24	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-25	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-26	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-27	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-28	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-29	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-09-30	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-10-01	$0.35	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-10-02	$0.34	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-10-03	$0.34	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-10-04	$0.34	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$0.34	$1,215,248,718	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$0.34	$1,220,534,432	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$0.34	$1,220,534,432	8 / 10
2026-10-08	$0.35	$1,225,586,643	8 / 10
2026-10-09	$0.35	$1,225,586,643	8 / 10
2026-10-10	$0.35	$1,225,586,643	8 / 10
2026-10-11	$0.35	$1,227,179,379	8 / 10
2026-10-12	$0.35	$1,227,179,379	8 / 10
2026-10-13	$0.35	$1,227,179,379	8 / 10
2026-10-14	$0.35	$1,227,750,808	8 / 10
2026-10-15	$0.35	$1,227,750,808	8 / 10
2026-10-16	$0.35	$1,228,463,294	8 / 10
2026-10-17	$0.35	$1,228,463,294	8 / 10
2026-10-18	$0.35	$1,228,463,294	8 / 10
2026-10-19	$0.35	$1,228,463,294	8 / 10
2026-10-20	$0.35	$1,228,463,752	8 / 10
2026-10-21	$0.35	$1,228,463,294	8 / 10
2026-10-22	$0.35	$1,228,463,294	8 / 10
2026-10-23	$0.35	$1,228,463,294	8 / 10
2026-10-24	$0.35	$1,228,463,294	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	2
2026-06-01	11	3
2026-07-01	10	3
2026-08-01	10	3
2026-09-01	10	4
2026-10-01	10	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Clinical therapy selection volume growth of 20% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Improve profitability from loss-making statusDiluted EPS: $0.00 per share
Achieve $1.0B to $1.02B revenue in 2026Revenue: $263.712M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-54.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CARIS LIFE SCIENCES INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CAI is a fast-growing, loss-making healthcare business, with a sector tailwind but elevated risk. Its long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into CARIS LIFE SCIENCES INC

The valuation evidence says expectations are broadly aligned with the business outlook, with a modest expectations gap and no flagged signs of fragility. The evidence does not establish whether CAI is cheap or expensive versus peers.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and clinical case volume are growing, and management has raised 2026 revenue guidance while keeping its volume-growth goal. The next earnings report remains a watch point because recent surprises have been erratic and the industry has a high miss rate; a guidance reversal would also damage management credibility.

What CARIS LIFE SCIENCES INC hinges on

Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on CAI delivering its revenue and clinical therapy selection growth goals and continuing to expand molecular profiling. Weakening jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare names, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.