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Track CAI free→CARIS LIFE SCIENCES INC (CAI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-07-06
Intact
$17.81-2.68%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
The thesis is that CAI's strong fundamentals and robust earnings quality will drive growth in the healthcare sector. Revenue growth is supported by a recent solid earnings beat of 18%. CAI trades at a valuation that suggests it looks cheap compared to peer multiples, which imply a price about 8% above where it trades. A specific risk to this thesis is the potential for CAI to cut guidance on the next call, with a miss probability of 52%. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Market cap
- $5.17B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-05-23
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-11
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.81. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$20.19
Range $6.88 – $29.77
vs price: -12% below
Method agreement : high · 6 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$50.12consensus
Range $28.79 – $62.39
vs price: -64% below
Method agreement : medium · 3 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$62.11consensus
Range $34.28 – $77.13
vs price: -71% below
Method agreement : medium · 3 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
low confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for CAI right now, so treat our $12 fair value as low-confidence (our number sits well below the analyst range). Analysts target $21–$32. Note: our $12 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($21–$32). Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
56%
our forecast 28%
Our fair value
$12.06
range $5.67 – $12.20
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The price sits about 56% above a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 28% growth — well above our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=3552).
80th pctl · Health Care
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -25.0% / 30d, n=9for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.06 → $0.04 (-25.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 9 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 41.2% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$271.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$649.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,298.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mild_favorable'.
No, our read on the company is unchanged. There are no new strengths or weaknesses noted. The market backdrop remains neutral, with no significant changes affecting CAI. The company still lacks enough recent financial performance history to form a solid thesis.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 3d
Watch for clinical therapy selection volume growth to hit 20%
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong demand and supports overall revenue growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Clinical therapy selection volume growth of 20% or more year over year.
Disproves:Volume growth falls below 20% year over year.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-141mo agoInvesting.com India
Advances: Achieve $1.0B to $1.02B revenue in 2026
Robust growth indicates progress towards revenue target.
ReinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth to re-accelerate above 10%
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting CAI and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CAI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If CAI beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +18% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If CAI cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping CAI and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-072mo agoItem 2.02
disclosure. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth in such filing.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.