Reading BRCB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BRCB free→
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. (BRCB)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$8.10-3.23%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that Black Rock Coffee Bar's growth goals support its revenue trajectory. Management aims for 20% growth and 1,000 locations by 2035. Revenue growth is expected to improve with these plans. The stock trades at 7.3× P/E, below the peer median of 18. This suggests the price reflects less growth than anticipated. If BRCB cuts guidance, it could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 35% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Market cap
- $180.56M
- Employees
- 2,800
- IPO date
- 2025-08-18
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-11
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.10. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$12.68
Range $8.61 – $17.59
vs price: -36% below
Method agreement : high · 8 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$11.13consensus
Range $6.17 – $16.09
vs price: -27% below
Method agreement : medium · 2 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$27.85consensus
Range $27.85 – $27.85
vs price: -71% below
Method agreement : medium · 1 method
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $8.37 BRCB trades at 7.3× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $14 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $9.00–$22. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
7.3x
peer 18.2x · own history 7.1x
Premium
0.4x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-37%
our forecast 56%
Our fair value
$13.98
range $9.19 – $19.60
Analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price sits about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 56% growth — below our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
7.1xP/E · peer median
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=2438).
42nd pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -13.5% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.06 → $0.05 (-13.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 42.6% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$332.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$707.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,777.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company has reinforced its growth guidance, aiming for 20% growth and a target of 1,000 locations by 2035, which supports its revenue outlook. There are no new threats identified that would weaken this positive assessment.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 3d
Watch for reaffirmation of 2026 revenue guidance
Why it matters: Reaffirming revenue guidance shows the company is on track for growth. It confirms confidence in future sales.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management reaffirms 2026 revenue guidance of $255 to $257 million in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers or withdraws the revenue guidance for 2026.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1224d agoSeeking Alpha
1,000 locations by 2035 supports long-term growth guidance.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for retail sales data on July 16
- Watch for unemployment claims data on July 9 and July 16
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting BRCB and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BRCB raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-12), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If BRCB cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-12), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping BRCB and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits BRCB and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-201mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 15, 2026, Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an irrevocable proxy (the “Proxy”) with Viking Cake Fuel, LLC, Viking Cake Fuel II, LLC, Jeffrey R. Hernandez 2021 Trust, Tiffany S. Hernandez 2021 Trust, Daniel J. Brand 2021 Trust, and Tanya N. Brand 2021 Trust (collectively, the “Proxy Parties”), each of which is or was a Class C common shareholder of the Company. The Proxy Parties are also parties to that certain Voting Agr…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.