Brunswick (BC)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$65.88-3.53%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Brunswick’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+3.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.40 → 5.61 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$1.4B–$1.5B	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.39B
EPS	—	0.986
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$5.7B–$5.8B	5.78B
EPS	—	4.561
Free cash flow	$400M	—
Operating margin	About 8%non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.1B
EPS	—	5.608

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain or increase dividend per share in 2026	A supporting condition in Brunswick's published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.44 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.42	Dividend per share: $0.44 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.44 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20260.44 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1fa18c57-dcc2-4867-a841-5bf3e744f183. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow at least $350 million in 2026	Free cash flow target is $350M in 2026.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $300M in FY26	Free cash flow: $274.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $350M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026274,200,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 7.75% in 2026	A primary condition in Brunswick's published investment case. The stated target is 7.75%.	Under Pressure	Operating margin falls below 7.5% in FY26	Operating margin: 8.31% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 7.75%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20268.306586 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1fa18c57-dcc2-4867-a841-5bf3e744f183. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income increased from $41.9M in 2025-Q4 to $129.4M in 2026-Q2, with operating margin rising from 3.1% to 8.3%. Management emphasized disciplined operational execution and margin improvement despite inflation and tariffs, indicating delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches about $5.72 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Brunswick's published investment case. The stated target is ~$5.72B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $5.2B in FY26	Revenue: $1.558B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.72B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20261,557,800,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1fa18c57-dcc2-4867-a841-5bf3e744f183. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue increased from $1.3338B in 2025-Q4 to $1.5578B in 2026-Q2 (+7.7%), with consistent year-over-year sales growth across all segments including propulsion, parts, Navico, and boats. Management's statements and financials show delivering broad-based revenue growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.61

$5.33 → $5.61 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.10B

$6.07B → $6.10B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.33	$6,066,328,300	19 / 20
2026-07-25	$5.33	$6,066,328,300	19 / 20
2026-07-26	$5.33	$6,066,328,300	19 / 20
2026-07-27	$5.51	$6,064,223,597	13 / 15
2026-07-28	$5.33	$6,066,328,300	19 / 20
2026-07-29	$5.33	$6,066,328,300	19 / 20
2026-07-30	$5.33	$6,066,328,300	19 / 20
2026-07-31	$5.34	$6,068,558,300	19 / 20
2026-08-01	$5.34	$6,068,558,300	19 / 20
2026-08-02	$5.34	$6,068,558,300	19 / 20
2026-08-03	$5.38	$6,082,348,950	18 / 19
2026-08-04	$5.38	$6,082,348,950	18 / 19
2026-08-05	$5.44	$6,090,864,740	19 / 19
2026-08-06	$5.44	$6,090,864,740	19 / 19
2026-08-07	$5.58	$6,082,439,666	13 / 15
2026-08-08	$5.44	$6,092,233,180	19 / 19
2026-08-09	$5.44	$6,092,233,180	19 / 19
2026-08-10	$5.44	$6,092,233,180	19 / 19
2026-08-11	$5.44	$6,092,233,180	19 / 19
2026-08-12	$5.44	$6,092,233,180	19 / 19
2026-08-13	$5.44	$6,092,233,180	19 / 19
2026-08-14	$5.58	$6,082,439,666	13 / 15
2026-08-15	$5.58	$6,082,439,666	13 / 15
2026-08-16	$5.58	$6,082,439,666	13 / 15
2026-08-17	$5.58	$6,082,439,666	13 / 15
2026-08-18	$5.58	$6,082,439,666	13 / 15
2026-08-19	$5.58	$6,082,439,666	13 / 15
2026-08-20	$5.58	$6,082,439,666	13 / 15
2026-08-21	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-08-22	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-08-23	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-08-24	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-08-25	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-08-26	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-08-27	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-08-28	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-08-29	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-08-30	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-08-31	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-01	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-02	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-03	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-04	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-05	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-06	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-07	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-08	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-09	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-10	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-11	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-12	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-13	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-14	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-15	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-16	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-17	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-18	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-19	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-20	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-21	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-22	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-23	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-24	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-25	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-26	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-27	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-28	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-29	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-09-30	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-10-01	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-10-02	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-10-03	$5.40	$6,090,530,780	13 / 15
2026-10-04	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	13 / 14
2026-10-05	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-06	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-07	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-08	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-09	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-10	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-11	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-12	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-13	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-14	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-15	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-16	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-17	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-18	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-19	$5.41	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-20	$5.61	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-21	$5.61	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-22	$5.61	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-23	$5.61	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14
2026-10-24	$5.61	$6,095,267,885	12 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	11
2026-06-01	9	11
2026-07-01	9	11
2026-08-01	9	11
2026-09-01	10	11
2026-10-01	10	10

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 23 · prior Jul 6

$94.00 → $81.00-13.8%

RBC CapitalOct 23

$66.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$51.70$103.40

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain or increase dividend per share in 2026Dividend per share: $0.44 per share
Free cash flow at least $350 million in 2026Free cash flow: $274.2M
Operating margin near 7.75% in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue reaches about $5.72 billion in 2026Revenue: $1.558B

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Brunswick outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical business with an improving-execution thesis, rather than a proven durable compounder. Management is delivering on revenue growth and margin priorities, but earnings quality remains fragile and confidence in the thesis is medium.

What's priced into Brunswick

BC is valued at a modest premium to peers, and the valuation evidence says that premium is broadly aligned with the business setup. Expectations appear somewhat demanding relative to the model, while the evidence does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue has grown across segments, and operating income and margins have improved; management has also maintained its dividend and increased repurchases. Recent earnings beats are positive, but past erratic surprises and a deep miss leave execution quality fragile, and the next guidance update remains an important risk.

What Brunswick hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and margin improvement without a guidance cut. Sector bellwethers THO, PII, and LCII are useful signals: continued earnings strength and higher guidance could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it. The recent CEO transition is also part of the current watch picture, though the evidence gives no further detail on its effects.