Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (ATEC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$8.98-2.23%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Alphatec aims for $882M revenue and $134M adjusted EBITDA in 2026. Recent quarters showed earnings beats and raised revenue guidance. The company is improving cash flow with a new $20M free cash flow target. These steps support a recovery from losses.
Revenue declined in early 2026 and the company remains unprofitable. Debt issuance and capital allocation changes add financial risk. If growth stalls or losses continue, the turnaround may fail.
The market expects about 20% revenue growth and prices the stock roughly 36% below our valuation model. Our view aligns with consensus revenue growth but acknowledges elevated risk from the ongoing turnaround.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls significantly below $134 million in FY26
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $20 million in FY26
Significant management departures or failure to execute turnaround plan
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
ATEC represents a growth-oriented investment in the healthcare sector. The company is focused on achieving revenue and profitability targets, but it is currently loss-making and faces elevated risks.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that ATEC is considered cheap compared to its peers. However, the valuation reflects a justified stance given the company's recent performance and sector backdrop.
Management is on track to meet its revenue and adjusted EBITDA targets for 2026, indicating a positive trajectory. However, the company has a history of earnings misses, which adds a layer of risk to its performance.
The future performance of ATEC hinges on its ability to meet guidance and the overall health of the healthcare sector. Key factors include the performance of sector leaders and broader economic indicators like job reports.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats to the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $760 million in FY26
The company aims to achieve approximately $882 million in total revenue for the fiscal year 2026.
In the next 1 to 3 years, ATEC's performance will depend on management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.