Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (ATEC)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.11-2.20%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alphatec Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.61 → 0.61 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	251.51M
EPS	—	0.156
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	882.04M
EPS	—	0.327
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.02B
EPS	—	0.61

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve approximately $134M adjusted EBITDA in 2026	Alphatec aims for $882M revenue and $134M adjusted EBITDA in 2026.	Improving	adjusted EBITDA falls significantly below $134 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased from $134 million to $140 million in 2026. Second quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $36 million, or 17% of revenue, showing margin expansion. The trajectory is delivering improved profitability aligned with management's stated targets. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Generate at least $20M free cash flow in 2026	The company is improving cash flow with a new $20M free cash flow target.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $20 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $582,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $20 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026582,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain stable management and execute turnaround plan	A supporting condition in Alphatec Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major negative management changes or failures in execution.	Intact	Significant management departures or failure to execute turnaround plan	No major negative management changes CEO Patrick Miles purchased $1.01m in stock. Neutral officer change for equity plans. No adverse management departures. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve at least $882M revenue in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Alphatec Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $882 million.	Intact	revenue falls below $760 million in FY26	Revenue: $213.513M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $882 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026213,513,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3caf305e-4da2-4796-aeff-be8c45acc389. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.61

$0.58 → $0.61 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.02B

$1.03B → $1.02B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.58	$1,028,723,490	9 / 12
2026-07-25	$0.58	$1,028,786,320	10 / 13
2026-07-26	$0.58	$1,028,786,320	10 / 13
2026-07-27	$0.58	$1,028,761,715	5 / 9
2026-07-28	$0.58	$1,028,786,320	10 / 13
2026-07-29	$0.59	$1,030,332,920	11 / 14
2026-07-30	$0.59	$1,030,332,920	11 / 14
2026-07-31	$0.59	$1,030,332,920	11 / 14
2026-08-01	$0.59	$1,030,332,920	11 / 14
2026-08-02	$0.59	$1,030,332,920	11 / 14
2026-08-03	$0.59	$1,030,332,920	11 / 14
2026-08-04	$0.59	$1,030,332,920	11 / 14
2026-08-05	$0.59	$1,030,332,920	11 / 14
2026-08-06	$0.60	$1,028,992,230	10 / 13
2026-08-07	$0.60	$1,017,803,244	6 / 10
2026-08-08	$0.60	$1,018,613,180	11 / 14
2026-08-09	$0.60	$1,018,613,180	11 / 14
2026-08-10	$0.60	$1,018,613,180	11 / 14
2026-08-11	$0.59	$1,016,285,300	11 / 14
2026-08-12	$0.59	$1,016,285,300	11 / 14
2026-08-13	$0.59	$1,016,285,300	11 / 14
2026-08-14	$0.60	$1,017,803,244	6 / 10
2026-08-15	$0.60	$1,017,803,244	6 / 10
2026-08-16	$0.60	$1,017,803,244	6 / 10
2026-08-17	$0.60	$1,017,803,244	6 / 10
2026-08-18	$0.60	$1,017,803,244	6 / 10
2026-08-19	$0.60	$1,017,803,244	6 / 10
2026-08-20	$0.60	$1,017,803,244	6 / 10
2026-08-21	$0.60	$1,015,475,357	7 / 10
2026-08-22	$0.60	$1,015,475,357	7 / 10
2026-08-23	$0.60	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-08-24	$0.60	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-08-25	$0.60	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-08-26	$0.60	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-08-27	$0.60	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-08-28	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-08-29	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-08-30	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-08-31	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-09-01	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-09-02	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-09-03	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-09-04	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-09-05	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-09-06	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-09-07	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-09-08	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-09-09	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-09-10	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-09-11	$0.61	$1,015,474,714	7 / 10
2026-09-12	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-13	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-14	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-15	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-16	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-17	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-18	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-19	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-20	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-21	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-22	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-23	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-24	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-25	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-26	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-27	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-28	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-29	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-09-30	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-10-01	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-10-02	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-10-03	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-10-04	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-10-05	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-10-06	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-10-07	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-10-08	$0.61	$1,015,253,286	7 / 10
2026-10-09	$0.61	$1,015,239,000	7 / 10
2026-10-10	$0.61	$1,015,239,000	7 / 10
2026-10-11	$0.61	$1,015,239,000	7 / 10
2026-10-12	$0.61	$1,015,239,000	7 / 10
2026-10-13	$0.61	$1,015,239,000	7 / 10
2026-10-14	$0.61	$1,015,239,000	7 / 10
2026-10-15	$0.61	$1,015,239,000	7 / 10
2026-10-16	$0.61	$1,015,239,000	7 / 10
2026-10-17	$0.61	$1,015,239,000	7 / 10
2026-10-18	$0.61	$1,015,239,000	7 / 10
2026-10-19	$0.61	$1,015,239,000	7 / 10
2026-10-20	$0.61	$1,015,239,000	7 / 10
2026-10-21	$0.61	$1,015,212,750	7 / 10
2026-10-22	$0.61	$1,015,212,750	7 / 10
2026-10-23	$0.61	$1,015,212,750	7 / 10
2026-10-24	$0.61	$1,015,212,750	7 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	0	0
2026-06-01	12	0	0
2026-07-01	14	0	0
2026-08-01	14	0	0
2026-09-01	14	0	0
2026-10-01	14	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve approximately $134M adjusted EBITDA in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Generate at least $20M free cash flow in 2026Free cash flow: $582,000
Achieve at least $882M revenue in fiscal 2026Revenue: $213.513M

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-69.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alphatec Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-focused medical device business with a loss-making earnings profile and elevated risk. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and recent earnings misses make execution an important test.

What's priced into Alphatec Holdings, Inc.

ATEC is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation signal is low confidence and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence labels pricing as justified with low fragility, but does not specify what growth or profitability the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is on track toward its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA goals, supported by second-quarter revenue growth and margin expansion. Free cash flow remains a watch item, and recent earnings misses raise execution risk despite the thesis remaining intact.

What Alphatec Holdings, Inc. hinges on

Over the next year, the thesis depends on ATEC sustaining its raised guidance and making progress toward its revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow goals. A guidance reversal or weakening employment data would add pressure, while continued strong results from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.