Academy Sports + Outdoors (ASO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
$51.15+14.40%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Gross margin near 34.4% in fiscal 2026: Q2 GM 40.4% vs 34.4% target.
Academy Sports plans to open 20-25 new stores in 2026. E-commerce sales grew 17.4% in Q1 2026. The company raised full-year EPS guidance to about $6.15 per share. Free cash flow is expected near $275 million in fiscal 2027.
Consumer risks could hurt sales growth. Earnings missed in past quarters. Capital allocation progress is mixed. The recent selloff shows market worries about growth and margins.
The price is about 23% below our fair value near $59. Analysts expect 4% revenue growth. Our fair value is slightly above the Street median of $55.
Breaks if: No meaningful buyback activity in FY26
Breaks if: EPS falls below $5.95 in FY27
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $250 million in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through store expansion and eCommerce. The current thesis state is intact, but recent performance has shown some mixed signals.
The market currently prices ASO as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not be fully accounting for the company's potential growth and recent financial performance.
Management is on track with plans to open new stores and increase eCommerce sales, indicating a positive trajectory. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for missing earnings expectations, which could impact sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on store openings and digital growth while navigating sector headwinds. Additionally, external factors like inflation and sector performance from major players will be critical in shaping outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation fell by 20.2 points (from 82.4 to 62.2).
Company momentum rose by 22.1 points (from 26.6 to 48.7) after fresh earnings.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. The company is also advancing plans to increase eCommerce sales and open 20-25 new stores in fiscal 2026.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 33% in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $6.0 billion in FY27
Overall, ASO's fundamentals show promise, but the company must manage risks effectively to maintain its position. Not investment advice.