Academy Sports + Outdoors (ASO)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$60.33-2.35%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Academy Sports + Outdoors’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.06 → 7.10 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-01
Revenue	—	1.44B
EPS	—	1.317
Quarter ending 2027-01-31
Revenue	—	1.79B
EPS	—	2.167
Annual ending 2027-01-31
Revenue	—	6.32B
EPS	—	6.718
Annual ending 2028-01-31
Revenue	—	6.62B
EPS	—	7.101

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Execute share buyback program	A supporting condition in Academy Sports + Outdoors's published investment case. The stated target is Progress on buyback program execution.	Intact	No meaningful buyback activity in FY26	Buyback funded by $500M notes ASO issued $500M notes in May 2026 to fund share buybacks, confirming active capital allocation execution. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Share repurchases totaled $99.3M in 2026-Q2 and increased to $182.1M in the first half of 2026, reflecting acceleration in buyback execution. Compared to $200.8M in fiscal 2025, management is actively executing the buyback program, showing delivery on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS about $6.15 in fiscal 2027	The company raised full-year EPS guidance to about $6.15 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $5.95 in FY27	Diluted EPS: $2.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$6.15 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 9, 20262.17 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5763b984-9b4a-405b-ba71-df68448a0793. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow near $275 million in fiscal 2027	Free cash flow is expected near $275 million in fiscal 2027.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $250 million in FY27	Free cash flow: $116.061M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$275M FCF. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 9, 2026116,061,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 34.4% in fiscal 2026	Free cash flow is expected near $275 million in fiscal 2027.	Under Pressure	Gross margin falls below 33% in FY26	Gross margin: 40.42% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 34.4% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 9, 202640.424213 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5763b984-9b4a-405b-ba71-df68448a0793. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company opened 2 new stores in 2026-Q2 and 3 new stores in 2026-Q3, increasing total stores from 322 to 327. The plan to open 20-25 new stores in fiscal 2026 is consistent with the recent store openings and management's repeated emphasis on store expansion, indicating delivery on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth of about $6.28 billion in fiscal 2027	A primary condition in Academy Sports + Outdoors's published investment case. The stated target is ~$6.28B revenue.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $6.0 billion in FY27	Revenue: $1.647B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$6.28B revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 9, 20261,647,285,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5763b984-9b4a-405b-ba71-df68448a0793. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company opened 2 new stores in 2026-Q2 and 3 new stores in 2026-Q3, increasing total stores from 322 to 327. The plan to open 20-25 new stores in fiscal 2026 is consistent with the recent store openings and management's repeated emphasis on store expansion, indicating delivery on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$7.10

$7.00 → $7.10 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$6.62B

$6.64B → $6.62B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.00	$6,639,544,400	17 / 15
2026-07-25	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-07-26	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-07-27	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-07-28	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-07-29	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-07-30	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-07-31	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-01	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-02	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-03	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-04	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-05	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-06	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-07	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-08	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-09	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-10	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-11	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-12	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-13	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-14	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-15	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-16	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-17	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-18	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-19	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-20	$6.98	$6,639,598,410	10 / 11
2026-08-21	$6.98	$6,641,522,293	10 / 11
2026-08-22	$6.98	$6,641,522,293	10 / 11
2026-08-23	$6.98	$6,641,522,293	10 / 11
2026-08-24	$6.98	$6,641,522,293	10 / 11
2026-08-25	$6.96	$6,641,522,293	10 / 11
2026-08-26	$6.96	$6,641,522,293	10 / 11
2026-08-27	$6.96	$6,641,522,293	10 / 11
2026-08-28	$6.96	$6,641,522,293	10 / 11
2026-08-29	$6.96	$6,641,522,293	10 / 11
2026-08-30	$6.96	$6,641,522,293	10 / 11
2026-08-31	$6.96	$6,641,522,293	10 / 11
2026-09-01	$6.96	$6,641,522,293	10 / 11
2026-09-02	$6.96	$6,641,522,293	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$6.92	$6,621,738,197	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$6.92	$6,621,738,197	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$6.92	$6,621,738,197	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$6.92	$6,621,738,197	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$6.92	$6,621,738,197	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$6.92	$6,621,738,197	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$6.91	$6,606,233,475	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$7.00	$6,596,916,036	11 / 12
2026-09-11	$7.07	$6,609,612,643	10 / 12
2026-09-12	$7.07	$6,609,612,643	10 / 12
2026-09-13	$7.07	$6,609,612,643	10 / 12
2026-09-14	$7.07	$6,609,612,643	10 / 12
2026-09-15	$7.07	$6,609,612,643	10 / 12
2026-09-16	$7.07	$6,609,612,643	10 / 12
2026-09-17	$7.06	$6,609,713,853	10 / 12
2026-09-18	$7.06	$6,609,713,853	10 / 12
2026-09-19	$7.06	$6,609,713,853	10 / 12
2026-09-20	$7.06	$6,609,713,853	10 / 12
2026-09-21	$7.06	$6,609,713,853	10 / 12
2026-09-22	$7.06	$6,609,713,853	10 / 12
2026-09-23	$7.06	$6,609,713,853	10 / 12
2026-09-24	$7.06	$6,609,713,853	10 / 12
2026-09-25	$7.06	$6,609,713,853	10 / 12
2026-09-26	$7.06	$6,609,713,853	10 / 12
2026-09-27	$7.06	$6,609,713,853	10 / 12
2026-09-28	$7.06	$6,609,713,853	10 / 12
2026-09-29	$7.06	$6,609,713,853	10 / 12
2026-09-30	$7.07	$6,610,460,772	10 / 12
2026-10-01	$7.07	$6,610,467,546	10 / 12
2026-10-02	$7.07	$6,610,467,546	10 / 12
2026-10-03	$7.07	$6,610,467,546	10 / 12
2026-10-04	$7.07	$6,610,467,546	10 / 12
2026-10-05	$7.07	$6,610,467,546	10 / 12
2026-10-06	$7.07	$6,610,467,546	10 / 12
2026-10-07	$7.07	$6,610,446,494	10 / 12
2026-10-08	$7.07	$6,610,446,494	10 / 12
2026-10-09	$7.07	$6,610,446,494	10 / 12
2026-10-10	$7.07	$6,610,446,494	10 / 12
2026-10-11	$7.05	$6,609,635,967	10 / 12
2026-10-12	$7.05	$6,609,635,967	10 / 12
2026-10-13	$7.05	$6,609,651,757	10 / 12
2026-10-14	$7.05	$6,609,651,757	9 / 11
2026-10-15	$7.05	$6,609,651,757	10 / 11
2026-10-16	$7.05	$6,609,651,757	10 / 11
2026-10-17	$7.05	$6,609,651,757	10 / 11
2026-10-18	$7.05	$6,609,651,757	10 / 11
2026-10-19	$7.05	$6,609,651,757	10 / 11
2026-10-20	$7.05	$6,609,651,757	10 / 11
2026-10-21	$7.08	$6,612,498,162	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$7.06	$6,614,444,627	10 / 11
2026-10-23	$7.06	$6,614,444,627	10 / 11
2026-10-24	$7.10	$6,617,734,246	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	10
2026-06-01	9	10
2026-07-01	9	10
2026-08-01	9	10
2026-09-01	9	11
2026-10-01	9	11

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS about $6.15 in fiscal 2027Published status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow near $275 million in fiscal 2027Free cash flow: $116.061M
Gross margin near 34.4% in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth of about $6.28 billion in fiscal 2027Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Dec 8, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Academy Sports + Outdoors outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ASO is a retail growth and value case, with robust earnings quality and stable management. Its long-term thesis is intact and recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though the near-term risk remains moderate.

What's priced into Academy Sports + Outdoors

The evidence describes ASO as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s view. Pricing is tagged as justified, and no fragility gates are flagged, so the current setup does not show clear signs of excessive expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong, with earnings beats in June and September 2026. eCommerce sales grew in both reported quarters, and management is executing on that priority; store expansion is mixed against the fiscal 2026 plan, while share repurchases are progressing. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but the record of past misses and the possibility of a guidance reversal remain risks.

What Academy Sports + Outdoors hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued execution in eCommerce and store expansion, and on management maintaining the guidance it recently raised. Consumer Discretionary sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strong results from sector bellwethers would support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.