Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Andersen Group Inc (ANDG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15
$58.27-1.15%
Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.28 → 2.28 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflow4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $225M to $250M adjusted EBITDA in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA is guided to $225M to $250M, showing strong profit growth. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $225M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $57.2 million in 2025-Q1 to $72.3 million in 2026-Q1, with margin improvement from 27.5% to 30.0%. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $225 million to $250 million with margins of 23% to 25%. The trajectory shows delivering growth and margin expansion consistent with guidance. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment thesis reflects a moderate risk profile with a focus on growth in the Consumer Discretionary sector. The current state is cautious, as recent earnings have not met expectations, and the overall market backdrop is challenging.
The market currently reflects a premium valuation compared to peers, indicating that expectations for performance are high despite recent weaknesses. This premium suggests that investors are anticipating recovery or improvement in fundamentals.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue and adjusted EBITDA targets for 2026, showing consistent growth. However, the recent earnings miss raises concerns about the company's ability to meet future expectations, especially given the moderate risk environment.
The thesis hinges on whether ANDG can maintain its growth trajectory and avoid further earnings misses. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance of sector peers will significantly influence the company's outlook.
In the next 1 to 3 years, ANDG's performance will depend on its ability to execute on growth plans amidst a challenging market. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain free cash flow yield near 26% | It has a solid free cash flow yield of 26%. | Under Pressure | Free cash flow yield falls below 20% | Free cash flow yield: 21.46% As of 2026-10-15; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 15, 202621.46 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 15, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: ANDG:2026-10-15. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Q2 2026 revenue in $190M to $205M range | A supporting condition in Andersen Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $190M revenue in Q2 2026. | Intact | Q2 revenue falls below $190M | Revenue: $217.658M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $190M revenue in Q2 2026. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Aug 12, 2026217,658,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a1da3e23-1903-4f12-bb97-176d0249a702. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $980M to $1B revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Andersen Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $980M revenue in FY26. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $980M in FY26 | Revenue: $217.658M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $980M revenue in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 2026217,658,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a1da3e23-1903-4f12-bb97-176d0249a702. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $208.1 million in 2025-Q1 to $240.7 million in 2026-Q1 (+15.7%) and $217.7 million in 2026-Q2 (+23.7% vs prior year). Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $980 million to $1 billion, targeting about 18% growth. The trajectory is delivering consistent double-digit growth aligned with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Unavailable → $2.28 · observed estimates
$1.12B → $1.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Unavailable | $1,117,441,338 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | Unavailable | $1,117,441,338 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | Unavailable | $1,117,441,338 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | Unavailable | $1,117,441,338 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | Unavailable | $1,117,441,338 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | Unavailable | $1,117,441,338 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.19 | $1,117,435,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | Unavailable | $1,117,441,338 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | Unavailable | $1,117,441,338 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | Unavailable | $1,117,441,338 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | Unavailable | $1,117,441,338 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | Unavailable | $1,117,441,338 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | Unavailable | $1,117,441,338 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | Unavailable | $1,170,930,748 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.28 | $1,174,941,654 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.