Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ)

NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$50.36+1.59%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ambiq Micro, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	39.62M
EPS	—	-0.065
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	135.2M
EPS	—	-0.538
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	178.43M
EPS	—	-0.217

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS loss narrows to about -$0.26 in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Ambiq Micro, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is -0.26 USD_PER_SHARE.	Under Pressure	EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.29 in Q2 2026	Diluted EPS: $-0.32 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: -0.26 USD_PER_SHARE. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 11, 2026-0.32 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5d400b3f-97fd-4e48-964c-67d1f3afe5e0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 45.5% in Q2 2026	Gross margins are stable near 45%.	Under Pressure	Gross margin falls below 40% in Q2 2026	Gross margin: 45.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 45.5 PERCENT. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Aug 11, 202645.03407 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5d400b3f-97fd-4e48-964c-67d1f3afe5e0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to $31M-$32M in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Ambiq Micro, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 31.0 to 32.0 USD_MILLIONS.	Broken	Revenue falls below $31M in Q2 2026	Revenue: $33.901M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 31.0 to 32.0 USD_MILLIONS. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 11, 202633,901,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5d400b3f-97fd-4e48-964c-67d1f3afe5e0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $25.06M in 2026-Q1 to $33.9M in 2026-Q2, a 35.3% sequential increase and 89.7% year-over-year growth, exceeding the $31M-$32M Q2 guidance. Management has reiterated strong edge AI demand driving this growth, delivering on the stated revenue target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.22

$-0.64 → $-0.22 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.18B

$0.15B → $0.18B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$-0.73	$152,666,090	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$-0.73	$152,666,090	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$-0.73	$152,666,090	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$-0.73	$152,666,090	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$-0.71	$154,545,050	6 / 6
2026-08-06	$-0.71	$154,545,050	6 / 6
2026-08-07	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$-0.71	$154,545,050	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$-0.71	$154,545,050	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$-0.71	$154,545,050	6 / 6
2026-08-11	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-08-12	$-0.71	$154,545,050	6 / 6
2026-08-13	$-0.71	$154,545,050	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$-0.64	$152,666,090	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$-0.23	$177,416,723	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$-0.22	$178,433,477	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	2
2026-06-01	3	2
2026-07-01	4	2
2026-08-01	4	2
2026-09-01	4	2
2026-10-01	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 7

$90.00New observation · no comparable prior

Stifel NicolausOct 5

$85.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$49.50$99.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS loss narrows to about -$0.26 in Q2 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Gross margin near 45.5% in Q2 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows to $31M-$32M in Q2 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 10, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-45.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ambiq Micro, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth business, with demand for edge AI supporting rapid revenue growth. Management delivered its Q2 revenue, margin, and expense goals, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort, so the long-term thesis is not yet firmly established.

What's priced into Ambiq Micro, Inc.

AMBQ trades at a 1.34 premium versus peers, with a durable premium identified as the main valuation driver. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests current expectations may be difficult to meet; the valuation is tagged as justified, and the evidence does not show concentrated fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, revenue growth and margin expansion provide support: Q2 revenue grew 89.7% year over year, and both non-GAAP and GAAP gross margins improved. Expenses stayed below management’s Q2 range, though erratic earnings surprises have trended down and the risk label recently rose to high.

What Ambiq Micro, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on edge AI demand sustaining growth while management maintains margins and controls expenses. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative near term; Fed rate cuts or continued strong results from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop.