Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15
$49.88-4.22%
Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15
Research Workspace
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Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Semiconductors is in supercycle. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Revenue grows to $31M-$32M in Q2 2026: Revenue: $33.9M.
View ThesisMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 4% on a typical day and fell roughly 43% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAmbiq’s ultra-low-power edge AI platform must drive growth to justify its premium multiple. Revenue grew 90% year over year in Q2 FY2026, and the quarter beat earnings expectations. AMBQ trades at 12× sales versus an 8.5× peer median, despite its own history near 15×. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, so expectations look modest versus our view. The platform’s revenue pillar is broken: Q2 revenue was $33.9M versus a stated $31M-$32M range. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 24%. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% above where it trades; the thesis has broken. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-16. AMBQ is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 7 analysts currently covering AMBQ (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for AMBQ in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMBQ Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Semiconductors — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put AMBQ next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Advance ultra-low-power edge AI technology platform
Analyst upgrade reflects confidence in edge AI technology potential.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-16. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $49.88
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $49.88.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Increase revenue to $31M-$32M in Q2 2026
Revenue surge supports growth objective for Q2 2026.
