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Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$83.82+1.17%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that AMBQ's growth potential is uncertain due to weak recent performance. The company has not been profitable over the past year, making its earnings quality not assessable. The market is pricing in more growth than expected, indicating that expectations look full. If AMBQ cuts guidance on the next call, it could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Market cap
- $1.98B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-07-03
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $83.82. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$56.34
Range $44.62 – $68.68
vs price: +49% above
Method agreement : high · 3 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$102.21consensus
Range $85.63 – $118.79
vs price: -18% below
Method agreement : medium · 2 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$80.49consensus
Range $67.05 – $93.92
vs price: +4% above
Method agreement : medium · 2 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for AMBQ right now, so treat our $44 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts target $43–$70. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
103%
our forecast 50%
Our fair value
$44.00
range $44.00 – $44.00
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
(median $44.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-13
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The price sits about 103% above a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 50% growth — well above our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2543).
97th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish4 analysts, 60% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.28 → $-0.28 (+0.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme AI/accelerated-compute.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -38.5% avg surprise
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$288.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$706.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,810.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'cautious'.
No, our read on the company is unchanged. There are no new strengths or weaknesses. The company remains unprofitable, and there is not enough recent performance history to assess its thesis. The market backdrop is mixed, with some sectors performing well while others are struggling.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 10d
Watch for further earnings misses in upcoming quarters
Why it matters: Another earnings miss could signal deeper issues in the business or market conditions. It would raise concerns about future growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The next earnings report shows results better than what analysts expect.
Disproves:The next earnings report shows results worse than what analysts expect.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMBQ yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would be a tailwind for AMBQ and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting AMBQ and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AMBQ raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-12), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AMBQ cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-12), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping AMBQ and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-121mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, Ambiq Micro, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release to report financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information set forth in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall be deemed "furnished" and not "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.