Alico, Inc. (ALCO)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$37.17+0.24%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alico, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	1.3M
EPS	—	-0.39
FY 2026 · Annual
EBITDA	About $15Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.4M
EPS	—	-1.5
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.1M
EPS	—	5.75

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.05 per share	It also maintains a steady dividend of $0.05 per share.	Intact	Dividend falls below $0.05 per share in any quarter after 2026-Q2	Dividend per share: $0.05 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share through 2026-Q2. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 10, 20260.05 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 095404d2-db60-4d3b-bffe-1c96f12ae0aa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company consistently paid a quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2, maintaining steady shareholder returns. The trajectory is delivering on this commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Manage and reduce net debt	The company manages and reduces net debt, aiming to lower it from $60 million to about $35 million.	Intact	Net debt rises above $45 million after 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net debt declined from $47.4 million at September 30, 2025 to $29.8 million at June 30, 2026, with guidance projecting net debt around $37 million for fiscal 2026. The trajectory shows delivering progress in managing and reducing net debt. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve operating income and reduce losses	Alico is improving its operating income, cutting losses from -$153 million to -$7.8 million in one year.	Intact	Operating income loss worsens beyond -$7.8 million in any quarter after 2026-Q2	Operating income: $1.886M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income loss less than -$7.8 million by 2026-Q2. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 10, 20261,886,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 095404d2-db60-4d3b-bffe-1c96f12ae0aa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	1
2026-06-01	1	1
2026-07-01	1	1
2026-08-01	2	1
2026-09-01	2	0
2026-10-01	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.05 per shareDividend per share: $0.05 per share
Manage and reduce net debtDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Improve operating income and reduce lossesOperating income: $1.886M

Next proof point

Nov 23, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alico, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative transformation story rather than an established durable compounder, with results tied to execution of the land-focused strategy. The thesis is in a watch state: progress is visible, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into Alico, Inc.

The valuation model shows ALCO at a premium to peers, while also indicating a sizable expectations gap; model confidence is low. The evidence labels the priced-in fragility as low and unjustified, so it does not point to a broad stack of adverse assumptions already reflected in the valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the transformation has shown progress: quarterly revenue and net income improved from the first to the second quarter of 2026 as the company shifted toward land monetization. Net debt has declined from its September 2025 level, though management is behind on its debt-reduction priority and its fiscal 2026 guidance points to a higher level than at June 2026; a recent earnings beat and guidance raise are positive, but a reversal would damage credibility.

What Alico, Inc. hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on continued land monetization progress and better financial execution, alongside management’s ability to manage net debt. Near-term risks include weaker employment data and any guidance cut; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.

Bottom line

ALCO has early evidence of a strategic shift working, but the weak performance record, debt execution gap, and premium valuation leave the multi-year view uncertain. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.