Arteris, Inc. (AIP)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$19.06-0.16%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Arteris, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.12 → 0.12 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$24M–$25M	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	25.12M
EPS	—	-0.009
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$95M–$98M	96.7M
EPS	—	-0.176
Free cash flow	$5M–$9M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	117.03M
EPS	—	0.124

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow improves to $7 million in 2026	Free cash flow should improve to $7 million next year.	Improving	Free cash flow falls below $5 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $8.615M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $7 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20268,615,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow guidance increased from $1.0 - $7.0 million in 2025 to $5.0 - $9.0 million in 2026. Actual cash from operations was $2.1 million in first half 2026, showing mixed progress toward improving free cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves from negative $9.3 million	A supporting condition in Arteris, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss narrows from -$9.3 million.	Broken	Operating loss worsens beyond -$9.3 million	Operating income: $-13.908M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss narrows from -$9.3 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026-13,908,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 78744730-6975-4170-a79d-ccc637b4024e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating loss increased from $8.5 million in 2025-Q4 to $13.9 million in 2026-Q2, with Non-GAAP operating loss rising from $2.5 million in 2026-Q1 to $4.6 million in 2026-Q2. Despite management focus, operating income has declined, indicating limited progress on improving operating income. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches about $93 million in 2026	Arteris aims to grow revenue to about $93 million in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $91 million in FY26	Revenue: $24.134M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$93 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202624,134,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 78744730-6975-4170-a79d-ccc637b4024e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased from $20.1 million in 2025-Q4 to $24.1 million in 2026-Q2, a 20% increase over six months, with customer design starts up 21% year-over-year. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth aligned with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.12

Unavailable → $0.12 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.12B

$0.12B → $0.12B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$115,064,800	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$115,064,800	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$115,064,800	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$115,064,800	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$115,064,800	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$115,064,800	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$115,064,800	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$115,064,800	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$115,064,800	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$115,064,800	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$115,064,800	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$115,064,800	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$115,064,800	4 / 5
2026-08-06	$0.15	$115,087,330	5 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$115,166,500	4 / 5
2026-08-08	$0.15	$115,087,330	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$0.15	$115,087,330	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$0.15	$115,087,330	5 / 6
2026-08-11	$0.16	$117,187,330	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$0.16	$117,187,330	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$0.15	$117,123,000	5 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$115,166,500	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$115,166,500	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$115,166,500	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$115,166,500	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$115,166,500	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$115,166,500	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$115,166,500	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$117,123,000	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$116,962,571	4 / 5
2026-09-24	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$0.12	$116,962,571	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$0.12	$117,030,429	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$0.12	$117,030,429	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$0.12	$117,030,429	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$0.12	$117,030,429	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$0.12	$117,030,429	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	1
2026-06-01	3	1
2026-07-01	4	1
2026-08-01	6	1
2026-09-01	7	0
2026-10-01	7	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow improves to $7 million in 2026Free cash flow: $8.615M
Operating income improves from negative $9.3 millionPublished status: Broken
Revenue reaches about $93 million in 2026Revenue: $24.134M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-61.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Arteris, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AIP is a high-risk growth business that is still loss-making, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its three-to-six-month thesis state is watch: revenue is growing, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into Arteris, Inc.

The valuation model shows a durable premium to peers, while its expectations gap is negative; both estimates have low confidence. The evidence labels the pricing justified and fragility low, but does not show what specific growth or profitability assumptions the market has priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth has tracked management’s stated priority, with revenue rising 20% over six months and customer design starts up year over year. Profitability remains the main weakness: operating losses widened, and recent earnings misses and a sharp drop in company momentum add risk. Cash generation shows mixed progress, with higher free cash flow guidance but modest cash from operations in the first half of 2026.

What Arteris, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on revenue growth translating into narrower operating losses and stronger cash generation. A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative, while rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop. The evidence does not establish which scenario is more likely.