American Assets Trust (AAT)

NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-23

$21.36+0.33%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge American Assets Trust’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	114.77M
EPS	—	0.09
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	442.63M
EPS	—	0.35
FFO per share	$1.96–$2.1	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	459.29M
EPS	—	0.37

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase cash from operating activities above $38 million per quarter	Revenue stayed stable at about $110 million last quarter.	Improving	cash from operating activities falls below $38 million	Cash from operations: $48.891M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $38 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202648,891,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend per share at $0.34	American Assets Trust keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.34 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.34 in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.34 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.34 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.34 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5908a558-98e3-4510-b34d-ed6bf0f8db61. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividends per share have been consistently declared and paid at $0.34 each quarter from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2, demonstrating management's delivery on its dividend commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve EPS near $2.03 per share in FY26	The company raised its full-year EPS guidance to about $2.03 per share.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $1.96 per share	Diluted EPS: $0.09 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.03 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5908a558-98e3-4510-b34d-ed6bf0f8db61. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividends per share have been consistently declared and paid at $0.34 each quarter from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2, demonstrating management's delivery on its dividend commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain stable revenue levels near $110 million per quarter	Revenue stayed stable at about $110 million last quarter.	Broken	quarterly revenue falls below $110 million	Revenue: $109.483M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $110 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026109,483,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5908a558-98e3-4510-b34d-ed6bf0f8db61. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	1
2026-06-01	2	1
2026-07-01	2	1
2026-08-01	2	1
2026-09-01	2	1
2026-10-01	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase cash from operating activities above $38 million per quarterCash from operations: $48.891M
Maintain dividend per share at $0.34Dividend per share: $0.34 per share
Achieve EPS near $2.03 per share in FY26Diluted EPS: $0.09 per share
Maintain stable revenue levels near $110 million per quarterPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

American Assets Trust outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AAT is a real estate income and operating business with a steady leasing profile, rather than a high-growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, though recent quality and management scores have fallen and near-term execution deserves attention.

What's priced into American Assets Trust

The valuation evidence is mixed: AAT is described as expensive overall, while the peer comparison points to a discount, with only a small expectations gap. The priced-in assessment says that valuation is justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not show that overly high expectations are the main risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, leasing execution has been steady, with rental-rate increases around 10% on a straight-line basis in 2026-Q2, while same-store cash NOI edged up 0.3%. The quarterly dividend has remained unchanged, but recent results include an earnings miss followed by an in-line report, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. The broader real estate sector is a headwind, and recent company quality and management scores have declined.

What American Assets Trust hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued leasing activity and stable same-store cash NOI without a guidance cut. Federal Reserve rate cuts could help rate-sensitive real estate companies, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.