FULL TRUCK ALLIANCE CO LTD (YMM)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$8.29-0.72%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge FULL TRUCK ALLIANCE CO LTD’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.67 → 5.69 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	3B
EPS	—	1.18
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	12.53B
EPS	—	4.761
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	13.62B
EPS	—	5.691

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS to grow to at least $5.80 in FY27	A primary condition in FULL TRUCK ALLIANCE CO LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.80.	Improving	EPS falls below $4.92 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustained investor confidence and partnership support	A supporting condition in FULL TRUCK ALLIANCE CO LTD's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or increase strategic investments.	Intact	Loss of key partnerships or withdrawal of strategic investors	Qualitative: Strategic investment maintained/increased New strategic stake by First Beijing Investment and consistent earnings beats confirm sustained investor confidence. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to meet or exceed $13 billion in FY27	A primary condition in FULL TRUCK ALLIANCE CO LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >= $13.05 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $11.6 billion in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.69

$5.73 → $5.69 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.62B

$13.02B → $13.62B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.73	$13,019,916,647	8 / 10
2026-07-25	$5.73	$13,019,916,647	8 / 10
2026-07-26	$5.73	$13,019,916,647	8 / 10
2026-07-27	$5.74	$13,032,275,372	8 / 10
2026-07-28	$5.74	$13,032,275,372	8 / 10
2026-07-29	$5.74	$13,032,275,372	8 / 10
2026-07-30	$5.74	$13,032,275,372	8 / 10
2026-07-31	$5.74	$13,038,454,734	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$5.74	$13,038,454,734	8 / 10
2026-08-02	$5.74	$13,038,454,734	8 / 10
2026-08-03	$5.75	$13,058,758,354	8 / 10
2026-08-04	$5.75	$13,058,758,354	8 / 10
2026-08-05	$5.75	$13,058,758,354	8 / 10
2026-08-06	$5.75	$13,058,758,354	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$5.75	$13,058,758,354	8 / 10
2026-08-09	$5.75	$13,058,758,354	8 / 10
2026-08-10	$5.82	$13,059,900,350	13 / 15
2026-08-12	$5.82	$13,059,900,350	13 / 15
2026-08-13	$5.75	$13,058,758,354	8 / 10
2026-08-14	$5.75	$13,058,758,354	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$5.75	$13,058,758,354	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$5.75	$13,058,758,354	8 / 10
2026-08-17	$5.75	$13,058,758,354	8 / 10
2026-08-18	$5.75	$13,058,758,354	8 / 10
2026-08-19	$5.75	$13,058,758,354	8 / 10
2026-08-20	$5.74	$13,394,433,155	8 / 10
2026-08-21	$5.78	$13,546,786,067	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$5.78	$13,632,100,359	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$5.78	$13,632,100,359	8 / 10
2026-08-24	$5.78	$13,632,100,359	8 / 10
2026-08-25	$5.79	$13,641,277,752	8 / 10
2026-08-26	$5.79	$13,640,360,013	8 / 10
2026-08-27	$5.79	$13,640,360,013	8 / 10
2026-08-28	$5.79	$13,640,360,013	8 / 10
2026-08-29	$5.79	$13,643,113,231	7 / 10
2026-08-30	$5.79	$13,643,113,231	7 / 10
2026-08-31	$5.79	$13,643,113,231	7 / 10
2026-09-01	$5.78	$13,622,922,965	7 / 10
2026-09-02	$5.79	$13,654,126,103	7 / 10
2026-09-03	$5.74	$13,644,986,517	7 / 10
2026-09-04	$5.74	$13,644,986,517	7 / 10
2026-09-05	$5.74	$13,644,986,517	7 / 10
2026-09-06	$5.74	$13,644,986,517	7 / 10
2026-09-07	$5.74	$13,644,986,517	7 / 10
2026-09-08	$5.75	$13,662,423,613	7 / 10
2026-09-09	$5.75	$13,665,176,838	7 / 10
2026-09-10	$5.75	$13,667,012,322	7 / 10
2026-09-11	$5.75	$13,669,765,548	7 / 10
2026-09-12	$5.75	$13,681,696,192	7 / 10
2026-09-13	$5.75	$13,681,696,192	7 / 10
2026-09-14	$5.75	$13,681,696,192	7 / 10
2026-09-15	$5.75	$13,670,683,290	7 / 10
2026-09-16	$5.75	$13,670,683,290	7 / 10
2026-09-17	$5.75	$13,663,341,354	7 / 10
2026-09-18	$5.75	$13,663,341,354	7 / 10
2026-09-19	$5.75	$13,673,436,515	7 / 10
2026-09-20	$5.75	$13,673,436,515	7 / 10
2026-09-21	$5.68	$13,512,248,032	7 / 10
2026-09-22	$5.68	$13,509,506,191	7 / 10
2026-09-23	$5.68	$13,517,069,780	7 / 10
2026-09-24	$5.67	$13,493,650,367	7 / 10
2026-09-25	$5.68	$13,500,297,972	7 / 10
2026-09-26	$5.68	$13,503,962,974	7 / 10
2026-09-27	$5.68	$13,503,962,974	7 / 10
2026-09-28	$5.68	$13,514,998,256	7 / 10
2026-09-29	$5.66	$13,556,578,387	7 / 10
2026-09-30	$5.67	$13,566,095,193	7 / 10
2026-10-01	$5.67	$13,582,132,403	7 / 10
2026-10-02	$5.66	$13,559,317,340	7 / 10
2026-10-03	$5.66	$13,561,461,297	7 / 10
2026-10-04	$5.66	$13,561,461,297	7 / 10
2026-10-05	$5.66	$13,561,407,361	7 / 10
2026-10-06	$5.66	$13,561,407,361	7 / 10
2026-10-07	$5.67	$13,577,797,970	7 / 10
2026-10-08	$5.67	$13,575,066,202	7 / 10
2026-10-09	$5.67	$13,572,334,434	7 / 10
2026-10-10	$5.67	$13,571,423,844	7 / 10
2026-10-11	$5.67	$13,571,423,844	7 / 10
2026-10-12	$5.67	$13,569,453,725	7 / 10
2026-10-13	$5.68	$13,592,044,681	7 / 10
2026-10-14	$5.68	$13,601,369,526	7 / 10
2026-10-15	$5.68	$13,594,828,638	7 / 10
2026-10-16	$5.68	$13,595,639,737	7 / 10
2026-10-17	$5.68	$13,595,639,737	7 / 10
2026-10-18	$5.68	$13,599,280,288	7 / 10
2026-10-19	$5.68	$13,599,280,288	7 / 10
2026-10-20	$5.69	$13,611,112,081	7 / 10
2026-10-21	$5.69	$13,611,112,081	7 / 10
2026-10-22	$5.69	$13,622,943,873	7 / 10
2026-10-23	$5.69	$13,627,494,563	7 / 10
2026-10-24	$5.69	$13,622,943,873	7 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	3
2026-06-01	14	3
2026-07-01	14	2
2026-08-01	14	2
2026-09-01	13	2
2026-10-01	13	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Industrial Alliance SecuritiesSep 28 · prior Jun 29

$10.00 → $10.50+5.0%

$0$5.78$11.55

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS to grow to at least $5.80 in FY27Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth to meet or exceed $13 billion in FY27Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 16, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

FULL TRUCK ALLIANCE CO LTD outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

The evidence is not enough to classify YMM as a durable compounder, cyclical business, or another clear investment type. The thesis is insufficient, and overall confidence is low.

What's priced into FULL TRUCK ALLIANCE CO LTD

The valuation model has high confidence, but the snapshot gives no valuation comparison or detail on market expectations. No fragility warning is flagged, so there is little evidence about how exposed expectations are to changes in the market regime.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term miss risk is described as low, with a 22% estimated miss probability. However, the evidence notes that YMM and its industry peers have missed recently, including a deep miss in YMM’s recent history. There is not enough recent financial-performance history to establish a multi-year fundamental trend.

What FULL TRUCK ALLIANCE CO LTD hinges on

Near-term sector conditions could help if the Fed begins cutting rates or if SAP, CRM, and NOW continue to report strong results and raise guidance. If those companies miss or guide lower, that sector support could fade. YMM-specific forward drivers are not detailed in the evidence.