Willis Towers Watson (WTW)

NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$315.49+1.65%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Willis Towers Watson’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

22.88 → 22.91 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $3.72 per share in FY26	Profit per share is expected near $3.72 in 2026.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $3.72 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow of at least $1 billion in FY26	A supporting condition in Willis Towers Watson's published investment case. The stated target is >=1 billion USD.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $1 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $425M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1 billion USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026425,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of at least 7% annually	A primary condition in Willis Towers Watson's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 9.07% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20269.066785 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9178c5a6-d054-4b05-b8e7-09a6b3637dd7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share repurchases totaling $1.0 billion or more	A supporting condition in Willis Towers Watson's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.0 billion USD total.	Intact	Total share repurchases fall significantly short of $1.0 billion in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. The Company repurchased $450 million in 2026-Q2 and $300 million in 2026-Q1, continuing a pattern of significant repurchases including $1.65 billion in 2025 full year. Management consistently reiterates a $1.0 billion or greater repurchase target, delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$22.91

$22.12 → $22.91 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$11.01B

$10.99B → $11.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$22.12	$10,986,711,400	12 / 12
2026-07-25	$22.17	$10,964,079,480	21 / 15
2026-07-26	$22.12	$10,986,711,400	12 / 12
2026-07-27	$22.17	$10,979,128,950	21 / 17
2026-07-28	$22.12	$10,986,711,400	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$22.12	$10,986,711,400	12 / 13
2026-07-30	$22.12	$10,986,711,400	12 / 13
2026-07-31	$22.29	$10,992,381,890	21 / 17
2026-08-01	$22.42	$10,996,882,689	12 / 13
2026-08-02	$22.66	$11,014,428,189	12 / 12
2026-08-03	$22.66	$11,014,428,189	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$22.67	$11,009,444,450	21 / 16
2026-08-05	$22.80	$11,028,805,590	21 / 15
2026-08-06	$22.80	$11,028,805,590	21 / 15
2026-08-08	$22.66	$11,014,428,189	12 / 12
2026-08-09	$22.80	$11,028,805,590	21 / 15
2026-08-10	$22.80	$11,028,805,590	21 / 15
2026-08-12	$22.86	$11,029,205,590	21 / 15
2026-08-13	$22.86	$11,029,205,590	21 / 15
2026-08-14	$22.66	$11,014,428,189	12 / 12
2026-08-15	$22.66	$11,014,428,189	12 / 12
2026-08-16	$22.66	$11,014,428,189	12 / 12
2026-08-17	$22.66	$11,014,428,189	12 / 12
2026-08-18	$22.66	$11,014,428,189	12 / 12
2026-08-19	$22.66	$11,014,428,189	12 / 12
2026-08-20	$22.88	$11,008,480,206	13 / 12
2026-08-21	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-08-22	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-08-23	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-08-24	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-08-25	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-08-26	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-08-27	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-08-28	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-08-29	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-08-30	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-08-31	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-09-01	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-09-02	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-09-03	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-09-04	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-09-05	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-09-06	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-09-07	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-09-08	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-09-09	$22.91	$11,008,357,983	13 / 12
2026-09-10	$22.88	$11,008,302,428	13 / 12
2026-09-11	$22.88	$11,008,302,428	13 / 12
2026-09-12	$22.88	$11,008,302,428	13 / 12
2026-09-13	$22.88	$11,008,302,428	13 / 12
2026-09-14	$22.88	$11,008,302,428	13 / 12
2026-09-15	$22.88	$11,008,302,428	13 / 12
2026-09-16	$22.88	$11,008,302,428	13 / 12
2026-09-17	$22.88	$11,008,302,428	13 / 12
2026-09-18	$22.88	$11,008,302,428	13 / 12
2026-09-19	$22.88	$11,008,302,428	13 / 12
2026-09-20	$22.87	$11,006,896,872	13 / 12
2026-09-21	$22.87	$11,006,896,872	13 / 12
2026-09-22	$22.87	$11,006,896,872	13 / 12
2026-09-23	$22.87	$11,006,896,872	13 / 12
2026-09-24	$22.87	$11,006,896,872	13 / 12
2026-09-25	$22.87	$11,006,896,872	13 / 12
2026-09-26	$22.87	$11,006,896,872	13 / 12
2026-09-27	$22.87	$11,006,896,872	13 / 12
2026-09-28	$22.87	$11,006,896,872	13 / 12
2026-09-29	$22.87	$11,006,896,872	13 / 12
2026-09-30	$22.87	$11,006,896,872	13 / 12
2026-10-01	$22.87	$11,010,099,100	13 / 12
2026-10-02	$22.88	$11,008,862,989	13 / 12
2026-10-03	$22.88	$11,009,196,322	12 / 12
2026-10-04	$22.88	$11,009,196,322	12 / 12
2026-10-05	$22.88	$11,009,196,322	12 / 12
2026-10-06	$22.88	$11,009,196,322	12 / 12
2026-10-07	$22.92	$11,007,853,717	12 / 12
2026-10-08	$22.92	$11,006,409,272	12 / 12
2026-10-09	$22.92	$11,010,075,939	12 / 12
2026-10-10	$22.92	$11,010,075,939	12 / 12
2026-10-11	$22.92	$11,010,075,939	12 / 12
2026-10-12	$22.92	$11,010,075,939	12 / 12
2026-10-13	$22.91	$11,009,242,606	12 / 12
2026-10-14	$22.91	$11,009,233,444	12 / 12
2026-10-15	$22.91	$11,009,233,444	12 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	15	8
2026-06-01	15	6
2026-07-01	15	6
2026-08-01	15	7
2026-09-01	14	7
2026-10-01	14	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 12

$364.00New observation · no comparable prior

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 7 · prior Sep 16

$380.00 → $349.00-8.2%

BarclaysOct 7

$332.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 6 · prior Aug 19

$350.00 → $310.00-11.4%

$0$209.00$418.00

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $3.72 per share in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow of at least $1 billion in FY26Free cash flow: $425M
Revenue growth of at least 7% annuallyRevenue growth: 9.07%
Share repurchases totaling $1.0 billion or moreDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Willis Towers Watson outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable company with a focus on long-term growth through strategic initiatives. The current thesis is cautious due to mixed recent performance and sector challenges.

What's priced into Willis Towers Watson

The market seems to be pricing in a justified valuation, but it is considered expensive compared to peers. There is a low level of fragility in execution quality, which suggests that the current expectations may not fully account for potential risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on achieving specific financial commitments, including organic growth and margin improvement. However, the recent financial performance has been neutral, with some pressure on margins, indicating a need for careful monitoring.

What Willis Towers Watson hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on their AI and automation initiatives, as well as external factors like interest rate movements and the performance of sector peers. Any cuts in guidance or significant changes in the financial landscape could negatively impact the outlook.