Wintrust Financial (WTFC)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$150.77+0.68%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Wintrust Financial’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.81 → 14.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	769.99M
EPS	—	3.433
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	767.11M
EPS	—	3.388
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.98B
EPS	—	13.313
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.19B
EPS	—	14.096

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share increases to at least $0.55 in Q1 2026	The company raised its dividend per share to $0.55, showing strong capital returns.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.55 in any quarter	Dividend per share: $0.55 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.55 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20260.55 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9cb73a5f-ed45-46d3-bcf0-6827a675fc96. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income increases to at least $227 million in Q1 2026	Wintrust Financial grows net income steadily, up 20% year over year.	Intact	net income falls below $227 million in any quarter	Net income: $233.693M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $227 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026233,693,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9cb73a5f-ed45-46d3-bcf0-6827a675fc96. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income increases to at least $300 million in Q1 2026	Operating income rose to $300.9 million in Q1 2026 from $253.1 million last year.	Intact	operating income falls below $300 million in any quarter	Operating income: $328.086M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $300 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026328,086,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth does not fall below -11% next year	A primary condition in Wintrust Financial's published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline no worse than -11% YoY.	Intact	revenue decline exceeds -11% YoY in FY2027	Revenue growth: 4.4% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue decline no worse than -11% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20264.398268 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9cb73a5f-ed45-46d3-bcf0-6827a675fc96. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$14.10

$13.81 → $14.10 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.19B

$3.17B → $3.19B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.81	$3,166,176,530	13 / 11
2026-07-25	$13.81	$3,158,889,530	14 / 11
2026-07-26	$13.79	$3,162,143,745	10 / 8
2026-07-27	$13.81	$3,158,889,530	14 / 11
2026-07-28	$13.81	$3,158,889,530	14 / 11
2026-07-29	$13.79	$3,162,143,745	10 / 8
2026-07-30	$13.79	$3,162,143,745	10 / 8
2026-07-31	$13.81	$3,158,889,530	14 / 11
2026-08-01	$13.79	$3,162,143,745	10 / 8
2026-08-02	$13.81	$3,158,889,530	14 / 11
2026-08-03	$13.79	$3,162,143,745	10 / 8
2026-08-04	$13.81	$3,158,889,530	14 / 11
2026-08-05	$13.81	$3,157,434,990	14 / 11
2026-08-06	$13.79	$3,160,816,119	10 / 8
2026-08-08	$13.79	$3,160,816,119	10 / 8
2026-08-09	$13.81	$3,157,434,990	14 / 11
2026-08-10	$13.79	$3,160,816,119	10 / 8
2026-08-12	$13.79	$3,160,816,119	10 / 8
2026-08-13	$13.81	$3,157,434,990	14 / 11
2026-08-14	$13.79	$3,160,816,119	10 / 8
2026-08-15	$13.79	$3,160,816,119	10 / 8
2026-08-16	$13.79	$3,160,816,119	10 / 8
2026-08-17	$13.79	$3,160,816,119	10 / 8
2026-08-18	$13.79	$3,160,816,119	10 / 8
2026-08-19	$13.79	$3,160,816,119	10 / 8
2026-08-20	$13.79	$3,160,816,120	10 / 8
2026-08-21	$13.79	$3,160,816,120	10 / 8
2026-08-22	$13.79	$3,160,816,120	10 / 8
2026-08-23	$13.79	$3,160,816,120	10 / 8
2026-08-24	$13.79	$3,160,816,120	10 / 8
2026-08-25	$13.79	$3,160,816,120	10 / 8
2026-08-26	$13.79	$3,160,816,120	10 / 8
2026-08-27	$13.79	$3,160,816,120	10 / 8
2026-08-28	$13.79	$3,160,816,120	10 / 8
2026-08-29	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-08-30	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-08-31	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-01	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-02	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-03	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-04	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-05	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-06	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-07	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-08	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-09	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-10	$13.80	$3,162,374,017	10 / 8
2026-09-11	$13.80	$3,162,374,017	10 / 8
2026-09-12	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-13	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-14	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-15	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-16	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-17	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-18	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-19	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-20	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-21	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-22	$13.80	$3,162,374,734	10 / 8
2026-09-23	$13.79	$3,161,976,599	10 / 8
2026-09-24	$13.81	$3,163,801,599	10 / 8
2026-09-25	$13.81	$3,163,906,876	11 / 8
2026-09-26	$13.81	$3,163,908,506	11 / 9
2026-09-27	$13.81	$3,163,908,506	11 / 9
2026-09-28	$13.81	$3,163,908,506	11 / 9
2026-09-29	$13.81	$3,163,908,506	11 / 9
2026-09-30	$13.81	$3,163,908,506	11 / 9
2026-10-01	$13.81	$3,163,908,506	11 / 9
2026-10-02	$13.81	$3,163,908,506	11 / 9
2026-10-03	$13.81	$3,163,885,430	11 / 9
2026-10-04	$13.81	$3,163,885,430	11 / 9
2026-10-05	$13.86	$3,166,746,968	11 / 9
2026-10-06	$13.86	$3,166,746,968	11 / 9
2026-10-07	$13.87	$3,170,651,090	11 / 9
2026-10-08	$13.87	$3,170,651,090	11 / 9
2026-10-09	$13.88	$3,171,374,827	11 / 9
2026-10-10	$13.88	$3,171,374,167	11 / 9
2026-10-11	$13.88	$3,171,374,167	11 / 9
2026-10-12	$13.88	$3,171,374,167	11 / 9
2026-10-13	$13.88	$3,171,374,167	11 / 9
2026-10-14	$13.89	$3,169,978,003	12 / 10
2026-10-15	$13.89	$3,169,978,003	11 / 10
2026-10-16	$13.89	$3,169,978,003	11 / 10
2026-10-17	$13.89	$3,169,978,003	11 / 10
2026-10-18	$13.89	$3,169,978,003	11 / 10
2026-10-19	$13.89	$3,169,978,003	11 / 10
2026-10-20	$13.89	$3,170,355,060	11 / 10
2026-10-21	$13.98	$3,181,064,342	11 / 10
2026-10-22	$14.06	$3,188,071,387	12 / 10
2026-10-23	$14.06	$3,188,071,387	12 / 10
2026-10-24	$14.10	$3,188,071,387	12 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	3
2026-06-01	9	3
2026-07-01	10	5
2026-08-01	9	5
2026-09-01	9	6
2026-10-01	10	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 21 · prior Jul 7

$180.00 → $165.00-8.3%

D.A. DavidsonOct 20 · prior Jul 22

$190.00 → $180.00-5.3%

Deutsche BankOct 12

$175.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerOct 5 · prior Jul 22

$186.00 → $195.00+4.8%

BarclaysOct 5 · prior Jul 7

$192.00 → $190.00-1.0%

$0$107.25$214.50

1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share increases to at least $0.55 in Q1 2026Dividend per share: $0.55 per share
Net income increases to at least $227 million in Q1 2026Net income: $233.693M
Operating income increases to at least $300 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $328.086M
Revenue growth does not fall below -11% next yearRevenue growth: 4.4%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Wintrust Financial outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

WTFC is a regional bank with a steady-growth thesis, supported by strong recent financial performance and robust earnings quality. The long-term thesis is intact, but credit indicators are mixed and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What's priced into Wintrust Financial

Valuation is stretched, at a 1.12 premium to peers, while the valuation view and expectations are aligned. The 0.13 expectations gap suggests the market already reflects some optimism, though low fragility indicates no major fragility signals are present.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent earnings beats and growth in loans, deposits, and net interest income support the business trend. Net interest margin edged lower, and higher net charge-offs leave credit quality as a key execution concern despite slightly lower non-performing loans. The next guidance update and any change in interest rates are important near-term risks.

What Wintrust Financial hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on WTFC sustaining balance-sheet and income growth while maintaining credit discipline. A guidance cut or rate reductions would weigh on the setup, while continued strong earnings and guidance from financial-sector peers could support sector momentum.