Westlake Corporation (WLK)

NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$64.56+0.65%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Westlake Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-29.1% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.21 → 2.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	2.73B
EPS	—	0.095
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	11.57B
EPS	—	1.867
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	11.9B
EPS	—	2.274

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend payments at $0.53 per share	It keeps paying a $0.53 dividend per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.50 in next 4 quarters	Dividend per share: $0.53 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share remains at $0.53. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.53 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6c28478c-1777-4c53-99ce-9f4b40d23176. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share remained steady at $0.53 from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2, demonstrating management's commitment to maintaining dividend payments. The trajectory is stable and consistent with stated capital allocation priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve $600 million EBITDA improvement in 2026	A primary condition in Westlake Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is EBITDA improves by $600 million in 2026.	Intact	EBITDA improvement falls below $300 million in FY26	Ebitda: $650M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EBITDA improves by $600 million in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026650,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6c28478c-1777-4c53-99ce-9f4b40d23176. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. EBITDA improved from $196 million in 2025-Q4 to $679 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting significant earnings recovery. Management's three-pillar profitability improvement plan targeting $600 million EBITDA improvement in 2026 is delivering substantial progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain PVC pricing momentum to support EBITDA	A primary condition in Westlake Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is PVC pricing remains stable or improves.	Under Pressure	PVC pricing declines significantly next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue between $4.4 billion and $4.6 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Westlake Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue between $4.4B and $4.6B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $4.4 billion in FY26	Revenue: $3.271B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue between $4.4B and $4.6B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20263,271,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6c28478c-1777-4c53-99ce-9f4b40d23176. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.27

$3.53 → $2.27 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$11.90B

$12.12B → $11.90B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.53	$12,117,235,282	8 / 11
2026-07-25	$3.39	$12,141,309,910	14 / 14
2026-07-26	$3.39	$12,141,309,910	14 / 14
2026-07-27	$3.34	$12,124,921,568	8 / 11
2026-07-28	$3.34	$12,124,921,568	8 / 11
2026-07-29	$3.39	$12,141,309,910	14 / 14
2026-07-30	$3.34	$12,124,921,568	8 / 11
2026-07-31	$3.39	$12,141,309,910	14 / 14
2026-08-01	$3.34	$12,124,921,568	8 / 11
2026-08-02	$3.34	$12,124,921,568	8 / 11
2026-08-03	$3.39	$12,141,309,910	14 / 14
2026-08-04	$3.34	$12,124,921,568	8 / 11
2026-08-05	$3.34	$12,124,921,568	8 / 11
2026-08-06	$3.34	$12,124,921,568	8 / 11
2026-08-08	$3.26	$12,108,940,007	9 / 11
2026-08-09	$3.26	$12,108,940,007	9 / 11
2026-08-10	$3.26	$12,108,940,007	9 / 11
2026-08-12	$3.36	$12,073,857,920	14 / 14
2026-08-13	$3.26	$12,108,940,007	9 / 11
2026-08-14	$3.26	$12,108,940,007	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$3.26	$12,108,940,007	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$3.26	$12,108,940,007	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$3.26	$12,108,940,007	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$3.26	$12,108,940,007	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$3.26	$12,108,940,007	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$3.34	$12,115,118,484	9 / 11
2026-09-10	$3.24	$12,102,618,484	9 / 11
2026-09-11	$3.20	$12,072,110,585	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$3.18	$12,072,110,585	10 / 12
2026-09-13	$3.18	$12,072,110,585	10 / 12
2026-09-14	$3.18	$12,072,110,585	10 / 12
2026-09-15	$3.21	$12,072,518,570	10 / 12
2026-09-16	$3.21	$12,072,518,570	10 / 12
2026-09-17	$3.21	$12,072,518,570	10 / 12
2026-09-18	$3.21	$12,072,518,570	10 / 12
2026-09-19	$3.21	$12,072,518,570	10 / 12
2026-09-20	$3.21	$12,072,518,570	10 / 12
2026-09-21	$3.21	$12,072,518,570	10 / 12
2026-09-22	$3.21	$12,072,518,570	10 / 12
2026-09-23	$3.21	$12,072,518,570	10 / 12
2026-09-24	$3.21	$12,072,518,570	10 / 12
2026-09-25	$3.21	$12,072,518,570	10 / 12
2026-09-26	$3.16	$12,054,066,851	10 / 12
2026-09-27	$3.16	$12,054,066,851	10 / 12
2026-09-28	$3.16	$12,054,066,851	10 / 12
2026-09-29	$3.16	$12,054,066,851	10 / 12
2026-09-30	$3.16	$12,054,066,851	10 / 12
2026-10-01	$3.09	$12,036,713,863	10 / 12
2026-10-02	$2.95	$12,021,963,202	10 / 12
2026-10-03	$2.93	$12,021,963,202	10 / 12
2026-10-04	$2.93	$12,021,963,202	10 / 12
2026-10-05	$2.93	$12,021,963,202	10 / 12
2026-10-06	$2.81	$12,001,299,222	9 / 12
2026-10-07	$2.81	$12,001,299,222	9 / 12
2026-10-08	$2.81	$12,001,299,222	9 / 12
2026-10-09	$2.81	$12,001,299,222	9 / 12
2026-10-10	$2.81	$12,001,299,222	9 / 12
2026-10-11	$2.81	$12,001,299,222	9 / 12
2026-10-12	$2.81	$12,001,299,222	9 / 12
2026-10-13	$2.55	$11,910,572,889	9 / 12
2026-10-14	$2.55	$11,910,572,889	9 / 12
2026-10-15	$2.55	$11,910,572,889	9 / 12
2026-10-16	$2.50	$11,910,572,889	9 / 12
2026-10-17	$2.50	$11,910,572,889	9 / 12
2026-10-18	$2.39	$11,914,312,526	9 / 12
2026-10-19	$2.39	$11,914,312,526	9 / 12
2026-10-20	$2.39	$11,914,312,526	9 / 12
2026-10-21	$2.34	$11,912,712,526	9 / 12
2026-10-22	$2.27	$11,904,673,747	9 / 12
2026-10-23	$2.27	$11,904,673,747	9 / 12
2026-10-24	$2.27	$11,904,673,747	9 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	9	1
2026-06-01	6	9	0
2026-07-01	6	9	0
2026-08-01	6	9	0
2026-09-01	6	10	0
2026-10-01	6	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 13 · prior Aug 6

$95.00 → $74.00-22.1%

BarclaysOct 12

$66.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 5 · prior Sep 25

$98.00 → $86.00-12.2%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 1

$72.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$53.90$107.80

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend payments at $0.53 per shareDividend per share: $0.53 per share
Achieve $600 million EBITDA improvement in 2026Ebitda: $650M
Sustain PVC pricing momentum to support EBITDAPublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve revenue between $4.4 billion and $4.6 billion in 2026Revenue: $3.271B

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-50.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Westlake Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical recovery story, meaning results depend in part on conditions in the materials sector. The thesis is in a watch state: earnings quality is rated robust and the improvement plan is progressing, but risk is elevated and recent performance trails the industry cohort.

What's priced into Westlake Corporation

The valuation evidence is mixed: WLK is described as cheap versus peers, while another peer comparison shows a 53% premium. The expectations gap is slightly negative, but confidence in the valuation model is low, so the evidence does not support a clear conclusion about what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings may remain uneven: recent surprises have been erratic and trending down, although the reported miss risk is low. Management says its 2026 profitability plan is on track, with EBITDA rising from $196 million in 2025-Q4 to $679 million in 2026-Q2; closing the Cologne plant also brings expected charges of $205 million.

What Westlake Corporation hinges on

The multi-year view depends on whether the profitability plan continues to deliver and whether European footprint changes improve results despite difficult market conditions. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from sector bellwethers LIN, SHW, and ECL could support the materials backdrop; weakness in those companies could remove that support.