Wells Fargo (WFC)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-15

$83.87+1.35%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Wells Fargo’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.97 → 8.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase common stock dividend by about 11%	A supporting condition in Wells Fargo's published investment case. The stated target is dividend increase of ~11%.	Intact	no dividend increase or dividend cut in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.45 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: dividend increase of ~11%. Target and observation units differ. Source published Jul 28, 20260.45 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 596ed40a-12c5-4a8c-bc63-8b83d7a0a5d0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain net interest income near $50 billion	Wells Fargo aims to keep net interest income near $50 billion in 2026.	Intact	net interest income falls below $48 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Control noninterest expenses near $55.7 billion	It plans to control noninterest expenses around $55.7 billion.	Intact	noninterest expenses exceed $57 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.05

$7.95 → $8.05 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$93.24B

$92.91B → $93.24B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.95	$92,906,444,080	21 / 11
2026-07-25	$7.95	$92,925,534,990	21 / 11
2026-07-26	$7.95	$92,925,534,990	21 / 11
2026-07-27	$7.97	$92,785,182,700	17 / 9
2026-07-28	$7.97	$92,785,182,700	17 / 9
2026-07-29	$7.97	$92,785,182,700	17 / 9
2026-07-30	$7.95	$92,925,534,990	21 / 11
2026-07-31	$7.95	$92,897,045,720	21 / 11
2026-08-01	$7.97	$92,770,252,160	17 / 9
2026-08-02	$7.95	$92,897,045,720	21 / 11
2026-08-03	$7.95	$92,897,045,720	21 / 11
2026-08-04	$7.97	$92,770,252,160	17 / 9
2026-08-05	$7.97	$92,770,252,160	17 / 9
2026-08-06	$7.96	$92,941,936,630	20 / 11
2026-08-08	$7.97	$92,770,252,160	17 / 9
2026-08-09	$7.96	$92,941,936,630	20 / 11
2026-08-10	$7.96	$92,941,936,630	20 / 11
2026-08-12	$7.97	$92,770,252,160	17 / 9
2026-08-13	$7.97	$92,770,252,160	17 / 9
2026-08-14	$7.97	$92,770,252,160	17 / 9
2026-08-15	$7.97	$92,770,252,160	17 / 9
2026-08-16	$7.97	$92,770,252,160	17 / 9
2026-08-17	$7.97	$92,770,252,160	17 / 9
2026-08-18	$7.97	$92,770,252,160	17 / 9
2026-08-19	$7.97	$92,770,252,160	17 / 9
2026-08-20	$7.98	$92,823,485,415	17 / 9
2026-08-21	$7.98	$92,823,485,415	17 / 9
2026-08-22	$7.98	$92,823,485,415	17 / 9
2026-08-23	$7.98	$92,823,485,415	17 / 9
2026-08-24	$7.98	$92,823,485,415	17 / 9
2026-08-25	$7.98	$92,823,485,415	17 / 9
2026-08-26	$7.98	$92,823,485,415	17 / 9
2026-08-27	$7.98	$92,823,485,415	17 / 9
2026-08-28	$7.98	$92,823,485,415	17 / 9
2026-08-29	$7.98	$92,825,191,373	17 / 9
2026-08-30	$7.98	$92,825,191,373	17 / 9
2026-08-31	$7.98	$92,825,191,373	17 / 9
2026-09-01	$7.98	$92,825,191,373	17 / 9
2026-09-02	$7.98	$92,825,191,373	17 / 9
2026-09-03	$7.98	$92,825,191,373	17 / 9
2026-09-04	$7.98	$92,825,191,373	17 / 9
2026-09-05	$7.98	$92,825,191,373	17 / 9
2026-09-06	$7.98	$92,825,191,373	17 / 9
2026-09-07	$7.98	$92,825,191,373	17 / 9
2026-09-08	$7.98	$92,824,554,524	17 / 9
2026-09-09	$7.97	$92,758,193,300	17 / 9
2026-09-10	$7.97	$92,758,193,300	17 / 9
2026-09-11	$7.97	$92,758,193,300	17 / 9
2026-09-12	$7.97	$92,758,193,300	17 / 9
2026-09-13	$7.97	$92,758,193,300	17 / 9
2026-09-14	$7.97	$92,758,193,300	17 / 9
2026-09-15	$7.97	$92,758,193,300	17 / 9
2026-09-16	$7.97	$92,758,193,300	17 / 9
2026-09-17	$7.97	$92,756,850,205	17 / 9
2026-09-18	$7.97	$92,756,850,205	17 / 9
2026-09-19	$7.97	$92,756,850,205	17 / 9
2026-09-20	$7.97	$92,756,850,205	17 / 9
2026-09-21	$7.97	$92,756,850,205	17 / 9
2026-09-22	$7.97	$92,756,850,205	17 / 9
2026-09-23	$7.97	$92,756,850,205	17 / 9
2026-09-24	$7.97	$92,756,850,205	17 / 9
2026-09-25	$7.99	$92,835,304,110	17 / 9
2026-09-26	$7.99	$92,835,285,310	17 / 9
2026-09-27	$7.99	$92,823,407,979	17 / 9
2026-09-28	$7.99	$92,823,407,979	17 / 9
2026-09-29	$7.99	$92,848,644,567	17 / 9
2026-09-30	$7.99	$92,848,644,567	17 / 9
2026-10-01	$7.99	$92,882,744,689	17 / 10
2026-10-02	$8.00	$92,897,245,796	17 / 10
2026-10-03	$8.00	$92,876,819,727	17 / 10
2026-10-04	$8.00	$92,876,819,727	17 / 10
2026-10-05	$8.00	$92,912,253,781	17 / 10
2026-10-06	$8.01	$92,929,318,724	17 / 10
2026-10-07	$8.02	$92,992,510,196	17 / 10
2026-10-08	$8.04	$93,012,277,914	18 / 11
2026-10-09	$8.04	$93,012,277,914	17 / 11
2026-10-10	$8.04	$93,012,277,914	17 / 11
2026-10-11	$8.04	$93,012,277,914	17 / 9
2026-10-12	$8.04	$93,012,277,914	17 / 9
2026-10-13	$8.04	$93,012,277,914	17 / 9
2026-10-14	$8.03	$93,119,604,815	17 / 9
2026-10-15	$8.05	$93,235,715,486	17 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	17	9
2026-06-01	16	9
2026-07-01	16	10
2026-08-01	16	10
2026-09-01	17	10
2026-10-01	19	9

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades9 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 10 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 14

$92.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 14 · prior Jun 29

$102.00 → $101.00-1.0%

Goldman SachsOct 13 · prior Oct 5

$96.00 → $94.00-2.1%

Wells FargoOct 5 · prior Jul 1

$93.00 → $102.00+9.7%

Truist FinancialOct 1

$95.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$56.10$112.20

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase common stock dividend by about 11%Dividend per share: $0.45 per share
Maintain net interest income near $50 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Control noninterest expenses near $55.7 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Wells Fargo outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and disciplined expense management. The current thesis state is intact, supported by management's consistent priorities and recent performance.

What's priced into Wells Fargo

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below what is justified. The current premium compared to peers suggests that investors are cautious but not overly pessimistic about WFC's prospects.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with their priorities, showing progress in revenue growth and expense management. However, the earnings quality is fragile, and recent performance has been neutral, indicating that future results may vary.

What Wells Fargo hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector peers like JPM and BAC, as well as WFC's ability to maintain guidance without cuts. Additionally, any changes in interest rates by the Fed could significantly impact the financial sector's performance.