Workday, Inc. (WDAY)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-15

$190.81-2.96%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Workday, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.23 → 13.25 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 23 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 24 to 23; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Expand AI and cloud capabilities via partnerships	Partnerships with Amazon and Microsoft boost AI and cloud offerings.	Improving	Partnerships fail to expand or contribute to growth	Qualitative: 2 new AI partnerships (C1.ai, Accenture) vs target to expand Workday acquired C1.ai and partnered with Accenture to expand AI capabilities, aligning with strategic growth priorities. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Non-GAAP operating margin at least 30.5%	A primary condition in Workday, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=30.5%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 30.5% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 quarters from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q3. Non-GAAP operating margin improved from 29.6% in fiscal 2026 to 31.1% in 2027-Q2, exceeding prior guidance. Management raised fiscal 2027 margin guidance from 30.0% to 31.0%, showing delivery and operational efficiency progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Subscription revenue grows at least 12% YoY	Workday grows subscription revenue about 14% yearly.	Intact	Subscription revenue growth falls below 12% YoY in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in all 6 quarters from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q3. Subscription revenue grew from $8.833 billion in fiscal 2026 to an expected $9.94 billion in fiscal 2027, representing about 12% to 13% growth. Quarterly subscription revenue increased 13.9% year-over-year to $2.471 billion in 2027-Q2. Management is delivering consistent growth aligned with stated targets. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$13.25

$12.64 → $13.25 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$11.78B

$11.85B → $11.78B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.64	$11,848,138,193	24 / 30
2026-07-25	$12.64	$11,848,138,193	24 / 30
2026-07-26	$12.64	$11,849,935,772	25 / 30
2026-07-27	$12.64	$11,849,935,772	25 / 30
2026-07-28	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	25 / 30
2026-07-29	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	25 / 30
2026-07-30	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	25 / 30
2026-07-31	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-01	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-02	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-03	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-04	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-05	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-06	$12.64	$11,840,360,750	41 / 40
2026-08-08	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-09	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-10	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-12	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-13	$12.64	$11,840,360,750	41 / 40
2026-08-14	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-15	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-16	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-17	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-18	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-19	$12.63	$11,850,434,476	24 / 30
2026-08-20	$12.63	$11,849,711,944	24 / 30
2026-08-21	$12.63	$11,849,711,944	24 / 30
2026-08-22	$12.63	$11,849,722,021	24 / 30
2026-08-23	$12.63	$11,849,722,021	24 / 30
2026-08-24	$12.63	$11,849,722,021	24 / 30
2026-08-25	$12.63	$11,849,745,242	24 / 30
2026-08-26	$12.63	$11,849,745,242	24 / 30
2026-08-27	$12.63	$11,849,745,242	24 / 30
2026-08-28	$12.63	$11,849,745,242	24 / 30
2026-08-29	$13.23	$11,791,206,842	24 / 30
2026-08-30	$13.23	$11,791,206,842	23 / 30
2026-08-31	$13.23	$11,791,206,842	23 / 30
2026-09-01	$13.23	$11,782,805,105	23 / 30
2026-09-02	$13.23	$11,782,831,421	23 / 30
2026-09-03	$13.23	$11,782,831,421	23 / 30
2026-09-04	$13.23	$11,782,831,421	23 / 30
2026-09-05	$13.23	$11,782,831,421	23 / 30
2026-09-06	$13.23	$11,782,831,421	23 / 30
2026-09-07	$13.23	$11,782,831,421	23 / 30
2026-09-08	$13.23	$11,782,831,421	23 / 30
2026-09-09	$13.23	$11,782,831,421	23 / 30
2026-09-10	$13.23	$11,782,831,421	23 / 30
2026-09-11	$13.23	$11,782,831,421	23 / 30
2026-09-12	$13.23	$11,782,831,421	24 / 30
2026-09-13	$13.23	$11,782,831,421	24 / 30
2026-09-14	$13.23	$11,782,831,421	24 / 30
2026-09-15	$13.23	$11,782,831,421	24 / 30
2026-09-16	$13.23	$11,782,824,145	24 / 30
2026-09-17	$13.23	$11,782,824,145	24 / 30
2026-09-18	$13.23	$11,782,824,145	24 / 30
2026-09-19	$13.25	$11,782,240,744	24 / 30
2026-09-20	$13.25	$11,782,240,744	24 / 30
2026-09-21	$13.25	$11,782,240,744	24 / 30
2026-09-22	$13.25	$11,782,240,744	24 / 30
2026-09-23	$13.25	$11,782,240,744	24 / 30
2026-09-24	$13.25	$11,782,240,744	24 / 30
2026-09-25	$13.25	$11,782,240,744	24 / 30
2026-09-26	$13.25	$11,782,240,744	24 / 30
2026-09-27	$13.25	$11,782,240,744	24 / 30
2026-09-28	$13.25	$11,782,240,744	24 / 30
2026-09-29	$13.25	$11,782,251,270	24 / 30
2026-09-30	$13.25	$11,782,251,270	24 / 30
2026-10-01	$13.25	$11,782,238,112	24 / 30
2026-10-02	$13.25	$11,782,238,112	24 / 30
2026-10-03	$13.25	$11,782,238,112	24 / 30
2026-10-04	$13.25	$11,782,238,112	24 / 30
2026-10-05	$13.25	$11,782,238,112	24 / 30
2026-10-06	$13.25	$11,782,238,112	24 / 30
2026-10-07	$13.25	$11,782,240,507	24 / 30
2026-10-08	$13.25	$11,782,240,507	24 / 30
2026-10-09	$13.25	$11,782,240,507	24 / 30
2026-10-10	$13.25	$11,782,240,507	24 / 30
2026-10-11	$13.25	$11,782,240,507	24 / 30
2026-10-12	$13.25	$11,782,240,507	24 / 30
2026-10-13	$13.25	$11,782,240,507	24 / 30
2026-10-14	$13.25	$11,782,240,507	24 / 30
2026-10-15	$13.25	$11,782,995,680	23 / 30

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	26	18	0
2026-06-01	26	18	0
2026-07-01	26	17	2
2026-08-01	24	19	3
2026-09-01	21	19	3
2026-10-01	20	19	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 19 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 15 · prior Oct 7

$210.00 → $175.00-16.7%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 14

$210.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesOct 8 · prior Aug 28

$220.00 → $210.00-4.5%

$0$121.00$242.00

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Non-GAAP operating margin at least 30.5%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Subscription revenue grows at least 12% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 24, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-54.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Workday, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a durable compounder with a focus on subscription revenue and AI capabilities. The current thesis state is intact, backed by recent strong financial performance.

What's priced into Workday, Inc.

The market seems to have a neutral valuation for WDAY, with expectations slightly below peers. The current pricing reflects a low expectations gap, suggesting that the market is not overly optimistic or pessimistic.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with its priorities, particularly in increasing subscription revenue and expanding AI capabilities. However, there is mixed progress on achieving the targeted operating margin, and recent earnings surprises have been erratic.

What Workday, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver consistent growth. Additionally, external factors like Fed rate cuts and performance from sector leaders could significantly influence WDAY's trajectory.