WaFd, Inc. (WAFD)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$29.47+0.10%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge WaFd, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	203.57M
EPS	—	0.793
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	532.07M
EPS	—	0.83
Annual ending 2027-09-30
Revenue	—	817.35M
EPS	—	3.36
Annual ending 2028-09-30
Revenue	—	819.8M
EPS	—	3.713

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations stays at or above $79.4M by Q2 2026	Cash from operations increased from $57.4M to $79.4M, supporting stable business activities.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $57.4M in any quarter after Q2 2026	Cash from operations: $70.275M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=79378000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 202670,275,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income increases to at least $65.5M by Q2 2026	WaFd is growing net income, up from $60.6M to $65.5M in recent quarters.	Intact	Net income falls below $60.6M in any quarter after Q2 2026	Net income: $66.13M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=65548000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 202666,130,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5a5bfce3-0b88-46b3-9b70-598ce7ddc43b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income increases to at least $83.8M by Q2 2026	Operating income rose from $77.6M to $83.8M, showing better profit.	Intact	Operating income falls below $77.6M in any quarter after Q2 2026	Operating income: $84.349M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=83806000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 202684,349,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue does not decline more than 10% year over year	A supporting condition in WaFd, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline no worse than -10% YoY.	Intact	Revenue declines more than 10% YoY in FY27	Revenue growth: 7.3% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: revenue decline no worse than -10% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20267.301002 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5a5bfce3-0b88-46b3-9b70-598ce7ddc43b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	0	4	0
2026-06-01	0	4	0
2026-07-01	0	4	0
2026-08-01	0	4	0
2026-09-01	0	4	0
2026-10-01	0	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

D.A. DavidsonOct 19 · prior Jul 20

$40.00 → $31.00-22.5%

Piper SandlerOct 1 · prior Apr 20

$36.00 → $32.00-11.1%

$0$22.00$44.00

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations stays at or above $79.4M by Q2 2026Cash from operations: $70.275M
Net income increases to at least $65.5M by Q2 2026Net income: $66.13M
Operating income increases to at least $83.8M by Q2 2026Operating income: $84.349M
Revenue does not decline more than 10% year over yearRevenue growth: 7.3%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

WaFd, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a regional banking business with a value-oriented, moderately risky setup, rather than a clear turnaround or high-growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, but evidence is mixed: annual earnings and loan originations improved, while the latest quarter’s earnings per share weakened from the prior quarter.

What's priced into WaFd, Inc.

WAFD is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral and the priced-in label is justified. Fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually concentrated expectations; however, confidence in the valuation read is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

For the multi-year view, active loan originations and annual earnings have improved, and commercial lending remains a stated focus. The EverBank merger is newly announced, with integration benefits still to be demonstrated; near term, the latest quarterly earnings-per-share decline and a headwind in the sector temper the picture.

What WaFd, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends in part on WAFD completing the EverBank merger and showing integration benefits, while sustaining loan growth and profitability. Near term, guidance cuts or falling rates are flagged as risks; continued strong earnings and higher guidance from sector peers would support a more favorable sector backdrop.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, WAFD presents a mixed but intact long-term thesis: annual results and lending activity are constructive, while merger delivery and the financial-sector backdrop remain important uncertainties. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.