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Track VWAV free→VISIONWAVE HOLDINGS INC (VWAV)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$4.43+7.00%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that VWAV could benefit from improving trends in the Industrials sector. If sector leaders like SPCX, GE, and RTX keep beating earnings, VWAV may gain. Revenue growth is uncertain, as there is not enough recent financial performance history to assess it. VWAV trades at an undefined multiple, with no peer comparison available. If VWAV misses earnings again, it could face continued pressure. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Market cap
- $110.62M
- Employees
- 12
- IPO date
- 2025-08-19
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-18
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.43. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$1.83
Range $1.83 – $1.83
vs price: +142% above
Method agreement : high · 1 method
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
Trading +142% versus the 12-month peer-multiple consensus (looks stretched on this basis).
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Compared to peers
8.5xP/S · peer median 3.5x
Looks more expensive than peers.
Compared to its own history
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E
—
EV/EBITDA
—
FCF yield
-10.9%
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile48 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2491).
0th pctl · Industrials
Not investment advice. As of 2026-07-06.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): mixed.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.neutral-2.3%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- #1
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$475.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,227.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,137.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 17d
Watch for revenue impact from recent acquisitions
Why it matters: The company has made several acquisitions. Their financial impact will show how well these deals are working.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Revenue growth exceeds 10% in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VWAV yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in Industrials.
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC meetings
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting VWAV and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would be a tailwind for VWAV and other Industrials names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping VWAV and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits VWAV and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If VWAV misses again next quarter like this past one (a very large miss off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2021-09-30 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-307d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 29, 2026, VisionWave Holdings, Inc. (the “Company” or “VisionWave”) entered into a binding Acquisition Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Meteor Aerospace Ltd. (“Meteor”), an Israeli aerospace and defense company pursuant to which the Company agreed to acquire fifty-one percent (51%) of the issued and outstanding share capital of Meteor, subject to the satisfaction of specified closing conditions. Meteor is engaged in the development, manufact…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.